Is Taiwan Vulnerable After Putin's Ukraine Invasion? - The ...

Is Taiwan Next? Russia's invasion of Ukraine makes the frightening possibility of China seizing control of the island more real. SkiptocontentSiteNavigationTheAtlanticPopularLatestSectionsPoliticsIdeasFictionTechnologySciencePhotoBusinessCulturePlanetGlobalBooksPodcastsHealthEducationProjectsAmericaInPersonFamilyEventsShadowlandProgressNewslettersTheAtlanticCrosswordPlayCrosswordThePrintEditionLatestIssuePastIssuesGiveaGiftSearchTheAtlanticQuickLinksDearTherapistCrosswordPuzzleManageSubscriptionPopularLatestSignInSubscribeAsRussiantanksrolloverUkraine,VladimirPutin’scrisiswillreverberatearoundtheworld,possiblymostdangerouslyintheTaiwanStrait.AnattemptbyBeijingtoclaimTaiwanbyforcehasjustbecomemorelikely.That’snotnecessarilybecausethereisadirectlinkbetweenPutin’sinvasionofUkraineandBeijing’smenacingofTaiwan,butbecausethewarforUkraineisthemostunfortunateindicationyetofthefrighteningdirectionofglobalgeopolitics:Autocratsarestrikingback.WiththedisintegrationoftheSovietUnionin1991,thelongAmericanstruggleagainstglobalauthoritarianthreatsseemedtohavebeenwon.Justabouteverywhere,dictatorswereontherun—Indonesia,Myanmar,Brazil,SouthKorea,thePhilippines,Chile,andevenRussiaitself.Globalizationwasworkingitssupposedmagic,spreadingliberalpoliticalandeconomicideals,prosperity,and,hopefully,anendtobig-powerconfrontation.Sure,theChineseCommunistPartywasentrenchedinBeijing,butitscadresappearedtobepartnersintheglobalorder,contenttogetgloriouslyrichandimmersethemselvesinthetradingnetworksandinternationalinstitutionscreatedbythedemocraticpowers.ReadourongoingcoverageoftheRussianinvasioninUkrainePutin’sUkrainewarexposeshowwrongthatlineofthinkingwas.WhattheU.S.anditsalliesachievedinthe1990swasnotafinalvictoryoverauthoritarianism,butamererespite.Foryears,theAmerican-ledliberaldemocraticconsensushasbeeneroding:TakeViktorOrbán’silliberaldemocracyinHungary,RecepTayyipErdoğan’sundercuttingoffreedomsinTurkey,orNarendraModi’sassaultonIndia’sseculartraditions.InMyanmar,thegeneralshavereclaimedcontrol;JairBolsonaroespousesantidemocraticrhetoricinBrazil;andRodrigoDutertehasproudlyprosecutedaviolentandlawlessdrugwarinthePhilippines.Still,Putin’sinvasionmarksanewstage,heraldsanewera—oneofauthoritarianaggression.Nocountry,though,isasbigathreattotheliberalworldorderasChina.Russia,inmanyrespects,isadecliningpower,lackingtheeconomicdynamismtosustainitspoliticalpunch.TheassaultonUkrainemaybePutingettingwhathewantswhilehestillcan.ThestoryisdifferentwithChina—apowerwithincreasingeconomic,diplomatic,andmilitarymight.Russiaisintheheadlinestoday,butChinawillbethespearheadoftheauthoritariancause.PresidentXiJinping’snationalistfervor,commitmenttotherestorationofChinesepower,andmoreaggressiveapproachcomparedwithhispredecessorswhenitcomestoterritorialandmaritimedisputes,relationswiththeU.S.anditsallies,aswellastheinternationalsystemwritlarge,havealreadybecomeadestabilizingforceinAsia.Taiwanisonthistenuousfrontline.JustasPutincan’ttolerateUkrainiansovereignty,theChineseCommunistPartywillneveraccepttheseparatenessofTaiwan,whichBeijingconsidersacorepartofChinaoccupiedbyanillegitimate(andbytheway,democratic)government.GainingcontroloverTaiwan,orasthepartypreferstocallit,“reunification,”isaprimarygoalofChineseforeignpolicy.Inaworldorderwhereauthoritarianstatesaremoreassertiveanddemocraticalliesareonthebackfoot,thechancesofwaroverTaiwanincrease.XihasalreadybeenintimidatingthegovernmentinTaipeibysendingsquadronsofjetstoharasstheisland,whileBeijing’scompletesuppressionoftheprodemocracymovementinHongKongunderminesanyhopethatTaiwanwouldretainasemblanceofitscurrentfreedomwereittobeincorporatedintoCommunistParty–ledChina.Thatdoesn’tmeanaChineseattackonTaiwanisimminent.ItisimpossibletopredictwithcertaintywhatXimaybethinkingaboutTaiwanintheaftermathofPutin’sUkrainewar.UnlikePutinwhenitcomestoUkraine,though,Xiisn’tamassinganinvasionforceonthestraitseparatingTaiwanfromtheChinesemainland.Also,Xiismanybadthings,butfoolhardyisnotoneofthem.Inhisperception,China’sascentisinevitable;timeisonitsside.HehasnoneedtofollowPutinonthepathtowar.ButPutin’smilitaryaggressionisasignofwhatmaycome.AuthoritarianpowersbelievethemomenthasarrivedtopushbackagainsttheU.S.andreshapetheworld.Andwho’stosaythey’rewrong:Itisnotatallclearifthedemocraticallieshavethewill,resources,orunitytofightanotherbattlewithautocracy.TheUkrainecrisishasshownbothhowtheU.S.anditsalliesinEuropestriveforcommonpurpose,whileneverthelessfallingshortintermsofgarneringresults.Europe’sleaderswanttocharttheirowncourse,buttheirmuch-touted“strategicautonomy”islookingmoreandmorelike“strategicindecision,”inwhichshort-termeconomicandpoliticalgainstakeprecedenceoverlong-termstrategicinterests.InWashington,meanwhile,rabidpoliticaldivisionsraiseseriousdoubtsaboutcontinuedAmericanresolve.TheU.S.publiciswearyoffightingtheworld’sbattles.Ifthesetrendscontinuetounfold,thedaywhenChinainvadesTaiwangetscloser.ChineseleadersarecomingtoseeAmericandeclineasinevitable,asmuchastheirownrise;theUkrainecrisismayappeartoaddevenmoreevidencetotheircase.Oneday,theymaycalculate(orworsestill,miscalculate)thattheU.S.anditspartnerswon’tfightforoneanother,theirideals,ortheirworldorder.Nothing,though,isinevitable.Washington’scriticswillcomplainthatthefailuretopreventPutin’sinvasionisalreadyasignofcreepingAmericanweakness.ButtheU.S.hasneverbeen,andwillneverbe,omnipotent.ThefactisthattheUkrainegameisnotover.Nowtheworld—andespeciallyXiJinping—willbewatchingtoseehowmuchpainandcosttheU.S.anditsalliescanandwillinflictonRussia.TheU.S.hasprojecteditspowernotmerelywithaircraftcarriers,butwithitstechnology,itscurrency,anditstalentfororganizingcollectiveaction.Putin’sassaultonUkraineisatestforallofthesemanytools.ChinaandRussiaarecertaintokeepthepressureon.They’llfomentnewcrisestopresstheU.S.anditspartners.PerhapsthealliancescanbebrokenandAmericanprimacyeroded.Themodernworld,withitsintegratedlinksofeconomicandsecurityinterests,istoocomplextobedefinedasasimplecontestbetweendemocracyandautocracy.Butitcanbedividedbetweenthosestatesthatbenefitstrategicallyfromtheperpetuationofthecurrentworldorder,andthosethatgainfromsubvertingit.TheUkraineinvasioncouldbejustonestageinacampaigntodestroyit.ThenextonemaywellinvolveChina.