Is Taiwan Next? - Project Syndicate

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February has stoked fears that Chinese President Xi Jinping is plotting his own aggression against Taiwan. Skiptomaincontent TheBigPicture WalidBerrazeg/AnadoluAgencyviaGettyImages Facebook Twitter Whatsapp AddtoBookmarks Comments1 IsTaiwanNext? May26,2022 USPresidentJoeBidensaidduringhisrecentvisittoAsiathatAmericawilldefendTaiwanmilitarilyintheeventofaChineseinvasion.AlthoughWhiteHouseofficialswerequicktostatethatUSpolicytowardtheislandhadnotchanged,somethinkthatRussia’sinvasionofUkraineandChina’sincreasingregionalassertivenessnecessitateatougherapproach. InthisBigPicture,formerJapanesePrimeMinisterAbeShinzōcallsontheUStoenditslongstandingpolicyofstrategicambiguityvis-à-visTaiwanandmakeclearthatitwilldefendtheislandagainstaggressionbyChina.BrahmaChellaneyoftheNewDelhi-basedCenterforPolicyResearchagrees,warningthataChinesetakeoverofTaiwanwouldupendthebalanceofpowerintheIndo-PacificandirreparablydamageAmerica’sreputationasareliableally. ButBonnieGlaseroftheGermanMarshallFundthinksAmerica’sbestcourseofactionistomaintainthestatusquobydeterringChinafromactingaggressivelywhilereassuringitthattheUSdoesnotsupportindependencefortheisland.AndtheUniversityofChicago’sChang-TaiHsiehfearsthatTaiwaneseleadersaresofocusedongaininginternationalrecognitionthattheyarerecklesslyignoringthethreatofaChineseinvasion. Ultimately,argues RichardHaassoftheCouncilonForeignRelations,whiletheUSmustunderscoretoChineseleaderstheeconomicandmilitarycostsofaggression,Taiwan’sstatusisanexampleofafrequentphenomenonininternationalaffairs:asituationthatmustbemanaged,notaproblemthatcanbesolved. FeaturedinthisBigPicture AbeShinzō BrahmaChellaney BonnieGlaser ElmiraBayrasli Chang-TaiHsieh RichardHaass USStrategicAmbiguityOverTaiwanMustEnd AbeShinzō SavingTaiwan BrahmaChellaney TroubleoverTaiwan BonnieGlaser,etal. Taiwan’sFatalAttractions Chang-TaiHsieh TheTaiwanTriangle RichardHaass USStrategicAmbiguityOverTaiwanMustEnd Apr12,2022 AbeShinzō For40years,theUnitedStateshasmadeapointofnotsayingwhetheritwoulddefendTaiwanagainstaChineseinvasion,anapproachthatprovedeffectiveindeterringrashactionbyChinaandbypro-independenceTaiwanese.Butnowthatcircumstanceshavechanged,so,too,mustAmerica'sstrategy. TOKYO–Russia’sinvasionofUkrainehasremindedmanypeopleofthefraughtrelationshipbetweenChinaandTaiwan.ButwhiletherearethreesimilaritiesbetweenthesituationinUkraineandTaiwan,therearealsosignificantdifferences. ThefirstsimilarityisthatthereisaverylargemilitarypowergapbetweenTaiwanandChina,justastherewasbetweenUkraineandRussia.Moreover,thatgapisgrowinglargereveryyear. Second,neitherUkrainenorTaiwanhasformalmilitaryallies.Bothcountriesareforcedtoconfrontthreatsorattacksalone. Third,becausebothRussiaandChinaarepermanent,veto-wieldingmembersoftheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncil,theUN’smediationfunctioncannotberelieduponforconflictsinwhichtheyareinvolved.ThishasbeenthecasewiththecurrentRussianattackonUkraine,anditwouldalsobethecaseinanycrisisoverTaiwan. ButthesituationsurroundingTaiwanisevenmoreuneasy.WhileTaiwanhasnoallies,itdoeshavetheTaiwanRelationsAct,a1979USlawrequiringtheUnitedStatestoprovideTaiwanwiththemilitaryequipmentandsupplies“necessarytoenableTaiwantomaintainasufficientself-defensecapacity.”ThislawhasfunctionedasaformofcompensationforAmerica’sunwillingnesstosayexplicitlythatitwill“defendTaiwan”shoulditbeattacked.Thisarrangementshouldnowchange. InresponsetoRussia’saggressionagainstUkraine,theUSstatedearlyonthatitwouldnotdeployitstroopsinUkraine’sdefense.ButwhenitcomestoTaiwan,theUShasadoptedapolicyofstrategicambiguity.Thisisthesecondpointofdifference:itremainsunclearwhethertheUSwouldintervenebyforceinacrisisinvolvingTaiwan. BecausetheUSpreferstoleaveundefineditspositiononhowitwouldrespondtoanassaultonTaiwan,Chinahas(atleastuptonow)beendiscouragedfrommilitaryadventurism.ThisissobecauseChina’srulersmustaccountforthepossibilitythattheUSwouldindeedintervenemilitarily.Atthesametime,USambiguityhasforcedTaiwantoconsiderthepossibilitythattheUSwillnotintervenemilitarily,andthishasdeterredradicalpro-independencegroupsontheisland. TheUShasmaintaineditsJanus-facedpolicyfordecades.Butthethird,mostimportantdifferencebetweenUkraineandTaiwansuggestsstronglythatitistimefortheUStoreconsideritsapproach.Simplyput,whereasUkraineisanindependentstatebeyondanydoubt,Taiwanisnot. Russia’sinvasionisnotonlyanarmedviolationofUkraine’sterritorialsovereignty,butalsoanattempttooverthrowthegovernmentofasovereignstatewithmissilesandshells.Onthispoint,thereisnocontroversyintheinternationalcommunityovertheinterpretationofinternationallawandtheUNCharter.WhiletheextenttowhichcountriesparticipateinsanctionsagainstRussiahasdiffered,nocountryhasclaimedthatRussiaisnotinseriousviolationofinternationallaw. Bycontrast,ChinaclaimsthatTaiwanis“partofitsowncountry,”andtheUSandJapanesepositionistorespectthisclaim.NeitherJapannortheUShasofficialdiplomaticrelationswithTaiwan,andmostcountriesaroundtheworlddonotrecognizeTaiwanasasovereignstate.UnlikeinUkraine,ChineseleaderscouldclaimthatanyinvasionofTaiwanthatChinalaunchesisnecessarytosuppressanti-governmentactivitiesinoneofitsownregions,andthatsuchactsthereforewouldnotviolateinternationallaw. WhenRussiaannexedCrimea,theinternationalcommunityultimatelyacquiesced,eventhoughRussiahadviolatedUkrainiansovereignty.Giventhisprecedent,itisnotsurprisingthatChineseleadersmayverywellexpecttheworldtobemoretolerantshouldthey,too,adoptthelogicof“regional”–ratherthannational–subjugation. Thislogichasmadestrategicambiguityuntenable.ThepolicyofambiguityworkedextremelywellaslongastheUSwasstrongenoughtomaintainit,andaslongasChinawasfarinferiortotheUSinmilitarypower.Butthosedaysareover.TheUSpolicyofambiguitytowardTaiwanisnowfosteringinstabilityintheIndo-Pacificregion,byencouragingChinatounderestimateUSresolve,whilemakingthegovernmentinTaipeiunnecessarilyanxious. Giventhechangeincircumstancessincethepolicyofstrategicambiguitywasadopted,theUSshouldissueastatementthatisnotopentomisinterpretationormultipleinterpretations.ThetimehascomefortheUStomakeclearthatitwilldefendTaiwanagainstanyattemptedChineseinvasion. WheneverImetPresidentXiJinpingduringmytimeasprimeminister,IalwaysmadeitaruletoconveyclearlytohimthatheshouldnotmisjudgeJapan’sintentiontodefendtheSenkakuIslands,andthatJapan’sintentionswereunwavering.ThehumantragedythathasbefallenUkrainehastaughtusabitterlesson.TheremustnolongerbeanyroomfordoubtinourresolveconcerningTaiwan,andinourdeterminationtodefendfreedom,democracy,humanrights,andtheruleoflaw. CengShouYiNurPhotoviaGettyImages SavingTaiwan Oct11,2021 BrahmaChellaney ChinesePresidentXiJinpingseemseagerforTaiwantogothewayofonce-autonomousTibet,whichwasgobbledupbyMaoZedong’sregimeintheearly1950s.Thiswouldconstitutethebiggestthreattoworldpeaceinageneration,andtheUnitedStatescannotaffordtoallowit. NEWDELHI–China’scoerciveexpansionismmaybetakingitsmostdangerousturnyet.Recently,record-breakingnumbersofChinesemilitaryplaneshaveenteredTaiwan’s“airdefenseidentificationzone,”wheretheisland’sauthoritiesasserttherighttodemandthataircraftidentifythemselves.China’smuscle-flexingsendsaclearmessage:itisseriousaboutincorporatingtheisland–and“reunifying”China–potentiallybyforce. ThoughtheinternationalcommunityhasbeenreluctanttochallengetheChineseclaimthatTaiwanhas“alwaysbeen”partofChina,theclaimisdubious,atbest,andbasedonrevisionisthistory.Formostofitshistory,Taiwanwasinhabitedbynon-Chinesepeoples–Malayo-Polynesiantribes–andhadnorelationshipwithChina.Geographically,TaiwanisclosertothePhilippinesthantotheChinesemainland. ItwasnotuntiltheseventeenthcenturythatsignificantnumbersofChinesebegantomigratetoTaiwan,encouragedbytheisland’sDutchcolonialrulers,whoneededworkers.Overthenext100years,theethnicChinesepopulationgrewtooutnumberTaiwanesenatives,whowereincreasinglydispossessed,oftenviolently.Duringthisperiod,TaiwancameundertheQingDynasty’scontrol.Butitwasnotuntil1887thatTaiwanwasdeclaredaprovinceofChina. Barelyeightyearslater,ChinacededTaiwantoJapaninperpetuity,followingitsdefeatintheSino-JapaneseWar.TaiwanremainedunderJapanesecolonialruleuntil1945–Japanofficiallyrenounceditssovereigntyoveritinthe1951SanFranciscoPeaceTreaty–andhasbeenself-governingeversince.Inotherwords,forthelast126years,TaiwanhasbeenoutsideChina’slawfulcontrol. Today,Taiwanhasalltheattributesofarobustindependentstate,andmostTaiwanesewantittostaythatway.ButChinesePresidentXiJinpingappearseagertoannextheisland,asMaoZedong’sregimedidtoTibetintheearly1950s,inthenameof“reunification.”AChineseinvasionofTaiwanwouldconstitutethebiggestthreattoworldpeaceinageneration. Beyondcompromisingfreedomofnavigationinacrucialregion,aChinesetakeoverofTaiwanwouldupendthebalanceofpowerintheIndo-Pacific,notleastbyenablingChinatobreakoutofthe“firstislandchain”thatrunsfromtheJapanesearchipelago,throughTaiwan,thePhilippines,andontoBorneo,enclosingChina’scoastalseas.ItwouldalsoirreparablydamageAmerica’sreputationasareliableally.IftheUnitedStatescannot(orwillnot)preventTaiwan’ssubjugation,whyshouldanyoneelsecountonUSprotection? TherisksareparticularlyacuteforJapan,whosesouthernmostislandsareadjacenttoTaiwan.Asthen-DeputyPrimeMinisterTaroAsoobservedinJuly,“Okinawacouldbenext.”UnabletorelyontheAmericans,Japanwouldlikelyremilitarizeandevenacquirenuclearweapons.OtherUSallies–suchasSouthKorea,thePhilippines,andThailand–wouldlikelybebroughtintoChina’ssphereofinfluence. YettheUSdoesnotseemparticularlycommittedtopreventingaChinesetakeoverofTaiwanandthesubsequentcollapseofthehalf-century-oldAsiansecurityorder.ThisisexactlywhatXiiscountingon.SuccessiveUSadministrationshavelethimgetawaywithcountlessexpansionistmaneuvers–frommilitarizingtheSouthChinaSeatodemolishingHongKong’sautonomy–aswellasculturalgenocideinXinjiang.WhyshouldTaiwanbeanydifferent? USPresidentJoeBiden’srecentshifttoamoreconciliatoryapproachtowardChinahasprobablybolsteredXi’sconfidencefurther.XicurrentlymaybefocusedonChina’s17-month-longmilitaryconfrontationwithIndiaintheHimalayas,whereChineseterritorialencroachmentshavetriggeredamassivebuildupofforcesalongtheinhospitablefrontier.But,ifsomeresolutioncanbefoundthatreducestensionsintheHimalayas,itwouldfreeupChinesecapabilitiestodealwiththefalloutofanyTaiwan-relatedoperation. Atthatpoint,theonlythingthatwoulddeterChinafromattemptingtorecolonizeTaiwanwouldbetheknowledgethatitwouldincurhighconcrete–notjustreputational–costs.BidenmustthereforemakeitcrystalcleartoXithattheUSwouldmobilizeitsownmilitaryresourcestodefendTaiwan. Butwillhe?TheUSStrategicFrameworkfortheIndo-Pacific–apolicydocumentdeclassifiedbyPresidentDonaldTrump’sadministrationbeforeleavingoffice–recommendsthatAmericahelpTaiwandevelop“asymmetric”capabilitiesagainstChina.SuchastrategyhasrecentlybeenbackedbysomeformerAmericangovernmentandmilitaryofficials.AsretiredAdmiralJamesStavridisputsit,justasaporcupine’squillsprotectitfromlargerpredatorsbymakingitdifficulttodigest,weaponslikeanti-shipandanti-aircraftmissileswouldturnanyinvasionofTaiwanintoabloody,protracted,andcostlyguerrillacampaign. ItistruethatbolsteringTaiwan’sdefensesiscrucialtoavertChineseamphibiousandairborneoperations.ButeveniftheUSandTaiwanesegovernmentsreachedanagreementonanasymmetricstrategy,itwouldtakeseveralyearstobuilda“porcupineTaiwan”capableofchokingtheChinesedragon.Thisprocesswouldincludetrainingalargeciviliancorpstomountsustainedguerrillaattacksoninvaders. Untilthen,inkeepingwiththecentralparadoxofdeterrence,theonlywaytodiscourageaggressionbyarevisionistpowerisforthestatusquopowertothreatentogotowar.ThatishowtheUSkeptWestBerlin–whichhadapoliticalstatusevenmoreprecariousthanTaiwan’s–freethroughouttheColdWar. TheworststancetheUScouldtakewouldbetoopposeaChinesetakeoverofTaiwanwithoutcrediblysignalingagenuinewillingnesstodefendtheislandmilitarily.SuchanapproachcouldencourageXi,whohasgrownaccustomedtoactingwithimpunity,toorderasurpriseinvasion.Withthat,theIndo-Pacificorderwouldbeoverturned,dealingamortalblowtoAmerica’sglobalpreeminence. TroubleoverTaiwan Nov23,2021 BonnieGlaser ,  ElmiraBayrasli IntheSino-Americangreat-powerdrama,Taiwanhastakencenterstage,asChinahasrampeduppressureontheisland.HowmuchdangerisTaiwanin–andhowfarwilltheUSgotodefendit? ProjectSyndicate·TroubleoverTaiwan|BonnieGlaser SAMYEH/AFPviaGettyImages Taiwan’sFatalAttractions Apr1,2022 Chang-TaiHsieh Byeagerlyembracingforeignpoliticianswho“standwithTaiwan”evenastheyunderminedemocracyelsewhere,theisland’sleadersareflirtingwithdisaster.ThecentralgoalofTaiwaneseforeignpolicyshouldbetodeterChinafromtakingtheislandbyforce,andthatcallsforrestraint,notrecklessgrandstanding. CHICAGO–InthesameweekthatTaiwanesetooktothestreetstorepudiateRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,Taiwan’sleadersrolledouttheredcarpetforavisitbyformerUSPresidentDonaldTrump’ssecretaryofstate,MikePompeo.Thisisthesamemanwho,togetherwithTrump,withheldmilitaryaidfromUkrainetopressureitsgovernmenttoinitiateabogusinvestigationintoJoeBiden’sson,andwhothenfiredtheUSambassadortoUkrainewhensherefusedtogoalongwiththeextortionattempt. Thejarringjuxtapositionofthesetwoevents–theTaiwanesepeoplesupportingafellowdemocracywhiletheirleaderslavishedpraiseonthemanwhounderminedthatdemocracy’ssecurity–reflectsarecklesswillingnesstoembraceanyforeignpoliticianwhowill“standwithTaiwan.”TaiwaneseleadersarefocusedsointentlyongaininginternationalrecognitionthattheyignorethekeythreatTaiwanfaces:aninvasionbyChinasimilartowhatRussiahasdoneinUkraine. Taiwan’sdevelopmentoverthepastfewdecadeshasbeentrulymiraculous,eveninaregionwithsomeofthemostsuccessfulcountriesintheworld.Withinthespanofageneration,Taiwanhasgrownfromapoor,primarilyagrariansocietywithanauthoritarianregimeintoavibrantdemocracyboastingsomeoftheworld’smostimportantcompanies,suchasTaiwanSemiconductorManufacturingCompany(TSMC).Evenmoreremarkably,thistransformationoccurredintheabsenceofformaldiplomatictiesorparticipationininternationalorganizationssuchastheUnitedNations. ButTaiwanhascontinuedtopushforformaldiplomaticrecognitionandparticipationininternationalforums.IfthatrequiresembracingfigureslikePompeo–whousedhislatestvisittodeclarethattheUnitedStatesshouldextendformaldiplomaticrecognitiontoTaiwan–sobeit. Taiwan’spoorchoiceoffriendsisnotlimitedtoAmericanpoliticians.WhenmultilaterallenderscutoffNicaraguanPresidentDanielOrtega’scorruptregimefollowingitsbrutalcrackdownonprotesters,Taiwansteppedinwitha$100millionloantothedictator.AndinNovember2021,Taiwanhosted then-HonduranPresidentJuanOrlandoHernández,eventhoughitwaswidelyknownthatHernándezwasinvolvedindrugtrafficking(inMarch2022,hewasindictedonfederaldrugchargesintheUS).BothNicaraguaandHondurasbelongtothesmallminorityofUNmemberstatesthatformallyrecognizeTaiwanasasovereigncountry. Obviously,Taiwancannotbebothabeaconofdemocracyandafinancierof“whiteterror”operationsinothercountries.Itcannotclaimtostandwiththeworld’sdemocraciesifitisalsogoingoutofitswaytosupportUSpoliticianswhohavethreatenedandundermineddemocraticregimesbothabroadandathome.SuchbehaviornotonlybetraysthedemocraticidealsthatTaiwanstandsfor;italsoignoresthethreatthatTaiwanfacesfromChina. Thatthreatoutweighsallothers.ThecentralgoalofTaiwan’sforeignpolicy,therefore,shouldbetodeterChinafrompursuingthekindofrecklessaggressionthatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinhaslaunchedinUkraine. ForTaiwan,effectivedeterrencehastwocomponents.First,Chinamustbemadetounderstandthatitwouldpayahighprice–militarily,economically,anddiplomatically–wereittoinvade.Taiwanandtherestoftheworld’sdemocraciesmustmakeitabsolutelyclearthatthedayChinainvadesTaiwanwouldalsobethedayChinagivesuponDengXiaoping’sprogramof“reformandopeningup.”Second,TaiwanmustavoidactionsthatwouldputChineseleadersinanimpossiblesituation.Specifically,itmustnotformallydeclareitsindependenceorseektosecuremembershipintheUN. Deterrencehasbeeneffectivesofar,butitnowfacestwomajorchallenges.First,America’sownstrategicdisengagementfromChinamayeventuallyleadChineseleaderstoconcludethattheyhavelittletolose–atleastintermsofChina’stiestotherestoftheworld–bytakingTaiwanbyforce.AlthoughthereisnotmuchthatTaiwancandoaboutthebattlebetweenthetwosuperpowers,itshouldthinktwicebeforeembracingUSpoliticianswhoseonlyinterestinTaiwanistouseitasacudgelagainstChina. ThesecondchallengecomesfromTaiwan’spushforformalrecognition.AcriticalpartofdeterrenceistoavoidactionsthatwouldgiveChinaanexcusetoattack.UNmembershiporformaldiplomaticrecognitionbytheUSwouldbeviewedasasteponthepathtoformalindependence.ThatcouldforceChina’shand,becausenoChineseleadercouldsurviveifhedidnothinginresponsetosuchastep. Pompeo’sstatementofsupportforformaldiplomatictiesbetweentheUSandTaiwanisthusextremelyreckless,asistheTaiwanleadership’sdecisiontogivehimaplatformtodisseminatethatmessage.ThestrongtiesbetweenTaiwanandtheUSwouldnotbemadeanystrongerifTaiwan’srepresentativeofficeinWashington,DC,weretochangeitsnameto“EmbassyofTaiwan.”Onthecontrary,formaldiplomaticrecognitionwouldleaveChinanochoicebuttosevertieswiththeUS,anoutcomethatwouldultimatelyendangerTaiwan. Taiwan’smostimportantinternationalrelationshipsarewithJapanandtheUS,neitherofwhichhasformaldiplomatictieswiththeisland.Thestrengthoftheserelationshipsisrootedintrade,businessties,andmillionsofpeople-to-peopleexchanges.Thesearewhatmatter–notUNspeechesor21-gunsalutesduringformalstatevisits.Taiwanmustnotconfusethetrappingsofnationhoodwiththerealityofnationhood.Itshouldfocusonstrengtheningastatusquothathasenabledittoprosper,anditshouldpolitelydeclinefutureoverturesfromcravenopportunistsandauthoritarians. MANDYCHENGAFPviaGettyImages TheTaiwanTriangle Oct18,2021 RichardHaass ThegoalofUSpolicytowardtheislandshouldbetoreduceuncertaintyaboutAmerica’sintentionsanditsabilitytomakegoodonthem,whileunderscoringtoChineseleaderstheeconomicandmilitarycostsofaggression.AsmuchasChina’sleaderswantTaiwan,theyalsowanttomaintainpowerandtheCommunistParty’spoliticalmonopoly. NEWYORK–TherelationshipbetweentheUnitedStatesandChinapromisestodomuchtodefinethisera.AndwhatcoulddeterminethisrelationshipmightwellbewhetherthetwocountriesareabletocontinuetoavoidarmedconflictoverTaiwan.Butwithsignsthatthechancesofconflictaregrowing,thequestionfacingtheUSanditspartnersishowtoavoidthatoutcomewithoutsacrificingessentialinterests. Conceptualframingisalwayscriticaltoforeignpolicy.Thisisnoexception.Thereareproblemsandtherearesituations.Problemscaninprinciplebesolved.Situationscanatbestbemanaged.Taiwanisasituation.Attemptstotreatitasasolvableproblemwillnotjustfail,butmostlikelyresultinaconflictthatwillleavetheUS,Taiwan,China,andothersintheregionandtheworldmuchworseoff.Thereasonisthatthereisnopossibleoutcomethatwouldbeuniversallyacceptable. ThegoodnewsisthatthediplomaticframeworkthattheUSandChinaputinplacefourdecadesago,inwhichthetwosidesessentiallyagreedtodisagreeoverTaiwan,allowedthemtoavoidconflictandbuildaproductiverelationshipthathelpedendtheColdWarpeacefullyandonWesternterms.TheUSandChinawentontodevelopadeepeconomicrelationship.Taiwan,foritspart,becameoneofAsia’stigersandevolvedfromaone-partydictatorshipintoarobustdemocracy. Tobesure,US-Chinarelationshavedeterioratedsharplyinrecentyears,butnotbecauseofTaiwan.HereIwouldpointtoChina’smilitarizationoftheSouthChinaSea,itsunfairtradepractices,itsgrowingrepressionathome,anditseconomiccoercionofcountriesintheregion. Now,however,thereisspeculationthatChinesePresidentXiJinpingiscontemplatingtheuseofforcetoabsorbTaiwaninanefforttorealizehisgoalofChina’s“rejuvenation”andbuildhislegacy.HemayalsobetryingtoshapeTaiwan’spoliticsandstrengthenleadersitperceivesasbeingfriendliertothemainland.WhateverXi’smotives,wehaveseenincreasedeconomicpressureonTaiwan,cyberattacks,attemptstosowdisinformationandinterfereinitsdemocracy,militaryflightsneartheisland,thedeploymentofadditionalmilitarycapabilitiesalongChina’scoastnearTaiwan,andeffortstokeepTaiwanoutofinternationalorganizations. OfficialUSpolicyhaslongbeentoemphasizetheprinciplethatifthestatusquoistochange,itmustbedoneconsensuallyandwiththesupportofthepeopleofTaiwan.TheUShasalsoconsistentlystateditdoesnotsupportTaiwan’sindependence,inanefforttopreventTaiwanfromtriggeringacrisis. SomeintheUSadvocateacceptingwhattheyseeastheinevitabilityofthemainland’stakeoverofTaiwan.ButallowingChinatocoerceorabsorbTaiwanwouldundermineorevenendtheUSalliancesysteminAsia.GovernmentswouldeitherbeinclinedtodefertoChina–anAsianversionofFinlandization–orbecomemoreautonomous,whichcouldleadtoconventionalmilitaryandevennuclearproliferation.Thereisalsothefactthatnearly24millionpeoplewouldseetheirdemocracyextinguished,whileChinawouldbeabletoprojectpowerthroughoutthePacific,controlkeyshippinglanes,anddominateTaiwan’svitalsemiconductorindustry.Anyoftheseoutcomeswouldreduceregionalstability,freedom,andprosperity. OntheothersideofthedebatearethosewhobelievethatTaiwanisacountryinallbutnameandoughttobetreatedasone.ButencouragingorrecognizingTaiwan’sindependenceinthefaceofmainlandoppositionwouldalmostcertainlyresultinconflict,aruptureinUS-Chineserelations,orboth. ThismeanscontinuingtomakecleartoTaiwanthatitmustactwithcaution.SomearguethatthisgivesChinatoomuchinfluence.Butasuccessfulforeignpolicyoftenrequirestoughtradeoffs.Toavoidtheprospectofwarandmaintainaworkingrelationshipwiththeworld’ssecond-largesteconomy–aglobalpowerinapositiontoshapeoutcomesonissuesrangingfromclimatechangetoworldhealthtononproliferation–theUSdoesnothaveafreehandwithTaiwan. WhatisneededarepolicychangesappropriatetodealingwithamorecapableandassertiveChina.ThatincludesenhancingUSmilitarycapabilitiesintheregion,buildingcloserdefenseintegrationwithJapanandAustralia,strengtheningTaiwan’sdefensecapacitiesmostrelevanttoslowingaChineseinvasion,andcoordinatingwithpartnersandalliesintheregionandEuropeoneconomicandmilitarymeasuresthatwouldbetakeninresponsetoChineseaggression. SomeofthisshouldbecommunicatedtoChina;thegoalshouldbetoreduceuncertaintyaboutAmerica’sintentionsanditsabilitytomakegoodonthem,whileunderscoringtoChineseleaderstheeconomicandmilitarycostsofaggression.AdeclarationbyCongressgrantingthepresidentconditionalauthoritytousemilitaryforceinresponsetoChineseaggressionagainstTaiwanshouldbeconsideredaswell.Atthesametime,USPresidentJoeBiden’sadministrationshouldmakeclearthatitisnotdepartingfromAmerica’slongstandingone-Chinapolicy.Accordingly,it“recognizesthegovernmentofthePeople’sRepublicofChinaasthesolelegalgovernmentofChina,”maintainsunofficialrelationswithTaiwan,andholdsthatanychangemustnotcomeaboutfromthethreatoruseofforce. AsmuchasChina’sleaderswantTaiwan,theyalsowanttomaintainpowerandtheCommunistParty’spoliticalmonopoly.AcostlywarofchoicetoconquerTaiwancouldjeopardizethis.ButifTaiwanweretodeclareindependence,ortheUSweretorecognizeTaiwanassovereign,manyonthemainlandwouldviewaninvasionoftheislandasawarofnecessity.ThegoalofUSpolicyshouldbetodetertheformerandavoidthelatter. FeaturedinthisBigPicture AbeShinzō WritingforPSsince2012 11Commentaries AbeShinzōwasPrimeMinisterofJapanfrom2006-07and2012-20. BrahmaChellaney WritingforPSsince2009 151Commentaries Follow BrahmaChellaney,ProfessorofStrategicStudiesattheNewDelhi-basedCenterforPolicyResearchandFellowattheRobertBoschAcademyinBerlin,istheauthorof Water,Peace,andWar:ConfrontingtheGlobalWaterCrisis (Rowman&Littlefield,2013). BonnieGlaser BonnieGlaseristhedirectoroftheAsiaprogramattheGermanMarshallFund,andthehostofthe“ChinaGlobal”podcast.  ElmiraBayrasli WritingforPSsince2016 3Commentaries ElmiraBayrasliistheco-founderandCEOofForeignPolicyInterruptedandtheauthorof FromTheOtherSideofTheWorld:ExtraordinaryEntrepreneurs,UnlikelyPlaces. Chang-TaiHsieh WritingforPSsince2020 5Commentaries Chang-TaiHsiehisProfessorofEconomicsattheUniversityofChicagoBoothSchoolofBusiness. RichardHaass WritingforPSsince2020 141Commentaries Follow RichardHaass,PresidentoftheCouncilonForeignRelations,previouslyservedasDirectorofPolicyPlanningfortheUSStateDepartment(2001-2003),andwasPresidentGeorgeW.Bush'sspecialenvoytoNorthernIrelandandCoordinatorfortheFutureofAfghanistan.Heistheauthor,mostrecently,of TheWorld:ABriefIntroduction (PenguinPress,2020). 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