Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense

Conflict over Taiwan also has the potential to be a flash point in ... warned in 2021 that China could try to invade Taiwan within the next decade [PDF], ... Skiptomaincontent Logo WhyChina-TaiwanRelationsAreSoTense Email Share Search Summary TaiwanhasbeengovernedindependentlyofChinasince1949,butBeijingviewstheislandaspartofitsterritory.Beijinghasvowedtoeventually“unify”Taiwanwiththemainland,usingforceifnecessary. Tensionsarerising.TaiwanesePresidentTsaiIng-wen,whosepartyplatformfavorsindependence,hasrebukedBeijing’seffortstounderminedemocracy.BeijinghasrampeduppoliticalandmilitarypressureonTaipei. SomeanalystsfeartheUnitedStatesandChinacouldgotowaroverTaiwan.TheUnitedStatesleavesthequestionofwhetheritwouldactuallydefendTaiwanunanswered,thoughBidenhassaiditwould. Introduction Taiwan,officiallyknownastheRepublicofChina(ROC),isanislandseparatedfromChinabytheTaiwanStrait.IthasbeengovernedindependentlyofmainlandChina,officiallythePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC),since1949.ThePRCviewstheislandasarenegadeprovinceandvowstoeventually“unify”Taiwanwiththemainland.InTaiwan,whichhasitsowndemocraticallyelectedgovernmentandishometotwenty-threemillionpeople,politicalleadershavedifferingviewsontheisland’sstatusandrelationswiththemainland. MoreFromOurExperts AdamSegal CyberWeekinReview:June3,2022 IanJohnson Biden’sGrandChinaStrategy:EloquentbutInadequate DavidSacks WhatBiden’sBigShiftonTaiwanMeans Cross-straittensionshaveescalatedsincetheelectionofTaiwanesePresidentTsaiIng-wenin2016.Tsaihasrefusedtoacceptaformulathatherpredecessor,MaYing-jeou,endorsedtoallowforincreasedcross-straitties.Meanwhile,Beijinghastakenincreasinglyaggressiveactions,includingbyflyingfighterjetsneartheisland.SomeanalystsfearaChineseattackonTaiwanhasthepotentialtodrawtheUnitedStatesintoawarwithChina. IsTaiwanpartofChina? Moreon: Taiwan China Asia DiplomacyandInternationalInstitutions U.S.ForeignPolicy Beijingassertsthatthereisonly“oneChina”andthatTaiwanispartofit.ItviewsthePRCastheonlylegitimategovernmentofChina,anapproachitcallstheOne-Chinaprinciple,andseeksTaiwan’seventual“unification”withthemainland. BeijingclaimsthatTaiwanisboundbyanunderstandingknownasthe1992Consensus,whichwasreachedbetweenrepresentativesoftheChineseCommunistParty(CCP)andtheKuomintang(KMT)partythatthenruledTaiwan.However,thetwosidesdon’tagreeonthecontentofthisso-calledconsensus,anditwasneverintendedtoaddressthequestionofTaiwan’slegalstatus.ForthePRC,asChinesePresidentXiJinpinghasstated,the1992Consensusreflectsanagreementthat“thetwosidesofthestraitbelongtooneChinaandwouldworktogethertoseeknationalreunification.”FortheKMT,itmeans“oneChina,differentinterpretations,”withtheROCstandingasthe“oneChina.” Taiwan’sKMT-draftedconstitutioncontinuestorecognizeChina,Mongolia,Taiwan,Tibet,andtheSouthChinaSeaaspartoftheROC.TheKMTdoesnotsupportTaiwan’sindependenceandhasconsistentlycalledforclosertieswithBeijing.Butinthefaceofrecentelectionlosses,KMTleadershavediscussedwhethertochangetheparty’sstanceonthe1992Consensus. MoreFromOurExperts AdamSegal CyberWeekinReview:June3,2022 IanJohnson Biden’sGrandChinaStrategy:EloquentbutInadequate DavidSacks WhatBiden’sBigShiftonTaiwanMeans DailyNewsBrief AsummaryofglobalnewsdevelopmentswithCFRanalysisdeliveredtoyourinboxeachmorning. Mostweekdays. Url EmailAddress Viewallnewsletters> TheWorldThisWeek Aweeklydigestofthelatest fromCFRonthebiggestforeignpolicystoriesoftheweek,featuringbriefs,opinions,andexplainers.EveryFriday. ThinkGlobalHealth Acurationoforiginalanalyses,datavisualizations,andcommentaries,examiningthedebatesandeffortstoimprovehealthworldwide. Weekly. Byenteringyouremailandclickingsubscribe,you'reagreeingtoreceiveannouncementsfromCFRaboutourproductsandservices,aswellasinvitationstoCFRevents.YouarealsoagreeingtoourPrivacyPolicyandTermsofUse. Viewallnewsletters> TheKMT’schiefrivalparty,theDemocraticProgressiveParty(DPP),hasneverendorsedtheunderstandinglaidoutinthe1992Consensus.PresidentTsai,whoisalsotheleaderoftheDPP,hasrefusedtoexplicitlyaccepttheconsensus.Instead,shehasattemptedtofindanotherformulationthatwouldbeacceptabletoBeijing.Inher2016inauguraladdress,Tsainotedshewas“electedpresidentinaccordancewiththeConstitutionoftheRepublicofChina,”whichisaone-Chinadocument,andsaidshewould“safeguardthesovereigntyandterritoryoftheRepublicofChina.”Tsaialsopledgedthatshewould“conductcross-straitaffairsinaccordancewiththeRepublicofChinaConstitution,theActGoverningRelationsBetweenthePeopleof[the]TaiwanAreaandtheMainlandArea,andotherrelevantlegislation.”Beijing,however,rejectedthisformulationandcutoffofficialcontactswithTaiwan.  Ina2019speech,XireiteratedChina’slong-standingproposalforTaiwan:thatitbeincorporatedintothemainlandundertheformulaof“onecountry,twosystems.”ThisisthesameformulausedforHongKong,whichwasguaranteedtheabilitytopreserveitspoliticalandeconomicsystemsandgranteda“highdegreeofautonomy.”SuchaframeworkisdeeplyunpopularamongtheTaiwanesepublic.PointingtoBeijing’srecentcrackdownonHongKong’sfreedoms,TsaiandeventheKMThaverejectedthe“onecountry,twosystems”framework. Moreon: Taiwan China Asia DiplomacyandInternationalInstitutions U.S.ForeignPolicy IsTaiwanamemberoftheUnitedNations? No.ChinarejectsTaiwan’sparticipationasamemberinUNagenciesandotherinternationalorganizationsthatlimitmembershiptostates.Taipeiregularlyprotestsitsexclusion;theUnitedStatesalsopushesforTaiwan’smeaningfulparticipationinsuchorganizations.AmidtheCOVID-19pandemic,TaipeicriticizedtheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)forgivingintoBeijing’sdemandsandcontinuingtobarTaiwan—whichmountedoneoftheworld’smosteffectiveresponsestoCOVID-19inthefirsttwoyearsofthepandemic—fromattendingtheorganization’sWorldHealthAssemblyasanobserver.MinistersfromtheGroupofSeven(G7)countrieshavecalledforTaiwan’sinclusioninWHOforums. Taiwandoes,however,holdmemberstatusinmorethanfortyorganizations,mostofthemregional,suchastheAsianDevelopmentBankandtheAsia-PacificEconomicCooperationforum,aswellasintheWorldTradeOrganization.Itholdsobserverorotherstatusonseveralotherbodies. OnlyfourteenstatesmaintainofficialdiplomatictieswithTaiwan.NogovernmenthaseversimultaneouslymaintainedformaldiplomatictieswithbothChinaandTaiwan. WhatistheUnitedStates’relationshipwithTaiwan? In1979,theUnitedStatesestablishedformaldiplomaticrelationswiththePRC.Atthesametime,itsevereditsdiplomatictiesandabrogateditsmutualdefensetreatywiththeROC.ButtheUnitedStatesmaintainsarobustunofficialrelationshipwiththeislandandcontinuestoselldefenseequipmenttoitsmilitary.BeijinghasrepeatedlyurgedWashingtontostopsellingweaponstoandceasecontactwithTaipei. TracetheHistory Timeline:U.S.-ChinaRelations TheU.S.approachisgovernedbyitsOne-Chinapolicy[PDF].Itisbasedonseveraldocuments,suchasthreeU.S.-Chinacommuniquésreachedin1972,1978,and1982;theTaiwanRelationsAct,passedbytheU.S.Congressin1979;andtherecentlydeclassified“SixAssurances”[PDF],whichPresidentRonaldReaganconveyedtoTaiwanin1982.ThesedocumentslayoutthattheUnitedStates: “acknowledgestheChinesepositionthatthereisbutoneChinaandTaiwanispartofChina”andthatthePRCisthe“solelegalgovernmentofChina”(someU.S.officialshaveemphasizedthattheuseoftheword“acknowledge”impliesthattheUnitedStatesdoesn’tnecessarilyaccepttheChineseposition); rejectsanyuseofforcetosettlethedispute; maintainscultural,commercial,andothertieswithTaiwan,carriedoutthroughtheAmericanInstituteinTaiwan(AIT); commitstosellingarmstoTaiwanforself-defense;and willmaintaintheabilitytocometoTaiwan’sdefense,whilenotactuallycommittingtodoingso—apolicyknownasstrategicambiguity. TheUnitedStates’chiefgoalistomaintainpeaceandstabilityintheTaiwanStrait,andithasimploredbothBeijingandTaipeitomaintainthestatusquo.ItsaysitdoesnotsupportTaiwaneseindependence.  Throughitspolicyofstrategicambiguity,theUnitedStateshasfordecadesattemptedtomaintainadelicatebalancebetweensupportingTaiwanandpreventingawarwithChina.ButPresidentJoeBidenhasseeminglyrejectedthepolicy,statingseveraltimesthattheUnitedStateswouldcometoTaiwan’sdefenseifChinaattacked.WhiteHouseofficialshavewalkedbackhiscomments,sayingthepolicyhasnotchanged,butultimately,thepresidentgetstodecidehowtorespond.Someexperts,suchasCFR’sRichardHaassandDavidSacks,andseveralmembersofCongresshavewelcomedBiden’sstatements,arguingthatChina’sincreasedaggressionnecessitatesclarity.Otherexpertshavedisagreedwiththisposition.  HowhaverecentU.S.administrationsapproachedTaiwan? UnderPresidentDonaldTrump,theUnitedStatesdeepenedtieswithTaiwanoverChineseobjections,includingbysellingmorethan$18billionworthofarmstothemilitaryandunveilinga$250millioncomplexforitsdefactoembassyinTaipei.TrumpspokewithTsaibytelephoneaheadofhisinauguration,thehighestlevelofcontactbetweenthetwosidessince1979.Healsosentseveralsenioradministrationofficials—includingacabinetmember—toTaipei,andduringhislastdaysinoffice,theStateDepartmenteliminatedlong-heldrestrictionsgoverningwhereandhowU.S.officialscanmeetwiththeirTaiwanesecounterparts. TheBidenadministrationhastakenasimilarapproach,continuingarmssalesandaffirmingtheTrumpadministration’sdecisiontoallowU.S.officialstomeetmorefreelywithTaiwaneseofficials.BidenwasthefirstU.S.presidenttoinviteTaiwaneserepresentativestoattendthepresidentialinauguration.TheUnitedStatesparticipatesinmilitarytraininganddialogueswithTaiwan,regularlysailsshipsthroughtheTaiwanStraittodemonstrateitsmilitarypresenceintheregion,andhasencouragedTaiwantoincreaseitsdefensespending. CouldwareruptoverTaiwan? AtopconcernamongU.S.analystsisthatChina’sgrowingmilitarycapabilitiesandassertiveness,aswellasthedeteriorationincross-straitrelations,couldsparkaconflict.SuchaconflicthasthepotentialtoleadtoaU.S.-Chinaconfrontation.That’sbecauseChinahasn’truledoutusingforcetoachieveTaiwan’s“reunification”andtheUnitedStateshasn’truledoutdefendingTaiwanifChinaattacks.TheU.S.DepartmentofDefensesaidina2021report[PDF]thatChina’smilitary,thePeople’sLiberationArmy(PLA),is“likelypreparingforacontingencytounifyTaiwanwiththePRCbyforce,whilesimultaneouslydeterring,delaying,ordenyinganythird-partyintervention,suchastheUnitedStates.” However,expertsdisagreeaboutthelikelihoodandtimingofaChineseinvasion.ThetopU.S.militarycommanderintheIndo-Pacificwarnedin2021thatChinacouldtrytoinvadeTaiwanwithinthenextdecade[PDF],whilesomeexpertsbelievethatsuchaninvasionisfurtheroff.Othersbelieve2049isacriticaldate;XihasemphasizedthatunificationwithTaiwanisessentialtoachievingwhathecallstheChineseDream,whichseesChina’sgreat-powerstatusrestoredby2049. Russia’sinvasionofUkraineinearly2022reignitedthedebate,withsomeanalystsarguingthatMoscow’smovescouldemboldenBeijingtosimilarlyinvadeTaiwanandotherssayingthatBeijingcouldbecomemorecautiousafterwitnessingRussia’schallenges.CFR’sSackswritesthatRussia’sactionswon’tinfluenceChina’swillingnesstouseforce,butthat“ChineseleaderswillexamineRussia’sfailuresandadapttheiroperationalplanstoavoidmakingsimilarmistakes.” Regardless,thePLAhasmadepreparingforaTaiwancontingencyoneofitstoppriorities,andTaiwanhasbeenamajorcatalystforChina’smilitarymodernization.Ina2019defensewhitepaper,thePLAsaiditwould“resolutelydefeatanyoneattemptingtoseparateTaiwanfromChina.” Taiwanlikelydoesn’thavethecapabilitiestodefendagainstaChineseattackwithoutexternalsupport,analystssay.EventhoughTsaiandtheDPPhaveprioritizedincreasingdefensespending,witharecordbudgetofnearly$17billionfor2022,China’sspending[PDF]isstillestimatedtobearoundtwenty-twotimesTaiwan’s.In2022,TaiwaneselawmakersapprovedtheTsaigovernment’splantospendanextra$8.6billionondefenseoverthenextfiveyears.Partofthisexpandedmilitarybudgetwillgotowardacquiringcruisemissiles,navalmines,andadvancedsurveillancesystemstodefendTaiwan’scoasts. HowhasChinatriedtointimidateTaiwan? Chinahasemployedavarietyofcoercivetacticsshortofarmedconflict,andithasrampedupthesemeasuressinceTsai’selectionin2016.ItsobjectiveistoweardownTaiwanandprompttheisland’speopletoconcludethattheirbestoptionisunificationwiththemainland.Tothatend,ChinahasincreasedthefrequencyandscaleofpatrolsofPLAbombers,fighterjets,andsurveillanceaircraftoverandaroundTaiwan.IthasalsoincreasinglysaileditswarshipsandaircraftcarriersthroughtheTaiwanStraitinshowsofforce. TaiwanhasreportedthatthousandsofcyberattacksfromChinatargetitsgovernmentagencieseveryday.Theseattackshavesoaredinrecentyears.In2020,TaipeiaccusedfourChinesegroupsofhackingintoatleasttenTaiwanesegovernmentagenciesandsixthousandofficialemailaccountssince2018totrytoaccessgovernmentdataandpersonalinformation. BeijinghasalsousednonmilitarymeasurestopressureTaiwan.In2016,Chinasuspendedacross-straitcommunicationmechanismwiththemainTaiwanliaisonoffice.ItrestrictedtourismtoTaiwan,andthenumberofmainlandtouristsvisitingTaiwanfellfromahighofover4millionin2015to2.7millionin2019.Chinahasalsopressuredglobalcorporations,includingairlinesandhotelchains,tolistTaiwanasaChineseprovince.Inaddition,ChinahasintimidatedcountriesthathavetieswithTaiwan:in2021,ChinacutofftradewithLithuaniaforopeningaTaiwaneserepresentativeofficeinitscapital. HasBeijingunderminedTaiwan’sdemocracy? Inadditiontothetacticsdescribedabove,ChinahasrampedupinterferenceinTaiwan’selections.ItsmethodsincludespreadingdisinformationonsocialmediaandincreasingitscontroloverTaiwanesemediaoutlets.Inthe2020election,forexample,ChinaspreaddisinformationinanapparentefforttodamageTsaiandboosttheKMT’spresidentialcandidate.SucheffortsarepartofChina’slargerstrategyofemployingcoerciontoerodetrustinTaiwan’spoliticalsystemandsowdivisionsinTaiwanesesociety.However,expertsviewtheDPP’ssuccessinrecentelections,includingTsai’sreelectionin2020,asarebukeofBeijing. Taiwan’sdemocracyisrelativelyyoung.TheKMTgovernedundermartiallawfrom1949to1987.Duringthattime,politicaldissentwasharshlyrepressedandTaiwanesewhohadlonginhabitedtheislandbefore1945faceddiscrimination.Taiwanhelditsfirstfreelegislativeelectionsin1992anditsfirstpresidentialelectionsin1996.Sincethen,ithaspeacefullytransferredpowerbetweenpartiesseveraltimes. DespiteChinesethreats,Taiwanappearstohavesofarbuckedthetrendofbackslidingafflictingdemocraciesaroundtheworld.In2020,theEconomist’sDemocracyIndex[PDF]labeledTaiwana“fulldemocracy”forthefirsttime.In2021,Taiwanwasrankedtheworld’seighth-most-democraticcountry.ThatishigherthanitsAsianneighbors(SouthKorearankedsixteenthandJapanrankedseventeenth)andtheUnitedStates,whichrankedtwenty-sixth.Recentelectionshaveseenhighvoterturnout. DoTaiwanesepeoplesupportindependence? MostpeopleinTaiwansupportmaintainingthestatusquo.Asmallnumbersupportimmediateindependence,accordingtoopinionpollsconductedbyNationalChengchiUniversity.EvenfewerexpresssupportfortheunificationofTaiwanwithChina.Anoverwhelmingmajorityrejecta“onecountry,twosystems”model,asentimentthathasgrownasBeijingcracksdownonHongKong’sfreedoms. AnincreasingnumberofTaiwanesepeoplefeelmorecloselytiedtoTaiwanthantothemainland.Morethan62percentoftheisland’sresidentsregardedthemselvesasexclusivelyTaiwanesein2021,asurveybyNationalChengchiUniversityfound.Bycomparison,32percentidentifiedasbothTaiwaneseandChinese,downfrom40percentadecadeearlier.Onlyabout3percentconsideredthemselvesonlyChinese,afigurethathasdecreasedsince1994,when26percentidentifiedthatway. WhatisTaiwan’seconomicsituation? Taiwan’seconomyremainsreliantontradewithChina,whichistheisland’slargesttradingpartner.However,theireconomicrelationshiphasexperienceddisruptionsinrecentyears,partlyduetoBeijing’spressureontheislandandTaiwaneseofficials’growingconcernaboutitsoverrelianceontradewithChina. UnderPresidentMa,whowasinofficefrom2008to2016,TaiwansignedmorethantwentypactswiththePRC,includingthe2010Cross-StraitsEconomicCooperationFrameworkAgreement[PDF],inwhichtheyagreedtoliftbarrierstotrade.ChinaandTaiwanresumeddirectsea,air,andmaillinksthathadbeenbannedfordecades.Theyalsoagreedtoallowbanks,insurers,andotherfinancial-serviceproviderstoworkinbothmarkets. TsaiandtheDPP,ontheotherhand,haveattemptedtodiversifyTaiwan’straderelationships,withmixedresults.TsaihashadsomesuccessboostingtradewithandinvestmentincountriesinSoutheastAsiaandtheIndo-Pacificthroughasignatureinitiative,theNewSouthboundPolicy.TradebetweenTaiwanandtheeighteentargetedcountriesincreasedbymorethan$50billionbetween2016,whentheinitiativewasunveiled,and2021.Taiwaneseinvestmentinthosecountrieshasalsosteadilyincreased.In2019,Tsaiunveiledathree-yearplantoincentivizeTaiwanesemanufacturerstomovefromthemainlandbacktoTaiwan. Still,in2021,Taiwan’sexportstoChinahitanall-timehigh.BeijinghaspressuredcountriesnottosignfreetradeagreementswithTaiwan.Ahandfulofcountrieshavesignedfreetradepactswiththeisland;NewZealandandSingaporearetheonlydevelopedeconomiestosignsuchagreements.BeijinghasalsopushedforTaiwan’sexclusionfrommultilateraltradingblocs,includingtheComprehensiveandProgressiveAgreementforTrans-PacificPartnership(CPTPP)andtheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnership(RCEP).(ChinaisincludedintheRCEPbutnotintheCPTPP.)TaiwanalsoisnotpartoftheBidenadministration’sIndo-PacificEconomicFramework. Havecross-straittensionshurtTaiwan’svitalsemiconductorchipmanufacturers? Taiwanistheworld’stopcontractmanufacturerofsemiconductorchips,anditsindustryisboomingdespitecross-straittensions.Thesechipsarefoundinmostelectronics,includingsmartphones,computers,vehicles,andevenweaponssystemsthatrelyonartificialintelligence.CompaniesinTaiwanwereresponsibleformorethan60percentofrevenuegeneratedbytheworld’ssemiconductorcontractmanufacturersin2020. MuchofthatcanbeattributedtoTaiwanSemiconductorManufacturingCompany(TSMC),theworld’slargestcontractchipmakerandthetopsupplierforAppleandotherU.S.companies.Itisoneofonlytwocompaniesintheworld(theotherisSouthKorea-basedSamsung)thathasthetechnologicalknow-howtomakethesmallest,mostadvancedchips,anditmanufacturesmorethan90percentofthem. SomeexpertsarguethattheUnitedStates’dependenceonTaiwanesechipfirmsheightensitsmotivationtodefendTaiwanfromaChineseattack.RecognizingtheextenttowhichtheUnitedStatesreliesononecompanyforcriticalchips,BidenhasledapushtostrengthentheU.S.chipindustry.ChinaalsoreliesonTaiwanesechips,thoughnotasmuchastheUnitedStatesdoes.Beijingisworkingtoboostitsindustry,especiallyasWashingtonhaspushedTSMCtostopsellingtoChinesecompanies,includingHuawei,aChinesetelecommunicationsgiantthatWashingtonclaimsBeijingcoulduseforespionage. RecommendedResources InthisCouncilSpecialReport,CFR’sRobertD.BlackwillandUniversityofVirginia’sPhilipZelikowexaminehowtheUnitedStatescouldchangeitsstrategytopreventwaroverTaiwan. TheBrookingsInstitution’sRichardC.BushexplainstheUnitedStates’One-Chinapolicy[PDF]. CFR’sRichardHaassandDavidSacksargueinForeignAffairsthattheUnitedStatesshouldenditspolicyofstrategicambiguitytowardTaiwan. ForForeignAffairs,SacksunpackswhatChinaislearningfromRussia’swarinUkraine. ThisvirtualstrategygameconductedbytheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurityexamineshowChinacouldinfluenceTaiwan’ssemiconductorindustry.  ThisBrookingsInstitutioneventdiscussesTaiwan’seconomyduringatimeofglobaluncertainty.  TheNewYorkTimesinvestigatesincreasingTaiwanesepride. Taiwan China Asia DiplomacyandInternationalInstitutions U.S.ForeignPolicy XiJinping EleanorAlbertcontributedtothisBackgrounder.WillMerrowcreatedthemap. Formediainquiriesonthistopic,pleasereachoutto[email protected]. HavetensionshurtTaiwan’schipmanufacturers? Related WhatBiden’sBigShiftonTaiwanMeans byDavidSacks U.S.MilitarySupportforTaiwan:What’sChangedUnderTrump? byLindsayMaizland Close MoreFromOurExperts Indo-Pacific TheQuadIsGettingMoreAmbitiousintheIndo-Pacific TheleadersoftheUnitedStates,Australia,India,andJapanheldtheirfourthQuadmeetinginMay.Afterayeardedicatedtofightingthepandemic,here’swhattheypledgedtotakeonnext. 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