Is Taiwan next? | WORLD - WNG.org

WORLD Radio - Is Taiwan next? Russia's invasion of Ukraine offers some important lessons for China's Xi Jinping ... TheWorldandEverythinginIt TheWorldandEverythinginIt Team RecordaPreroll Platforms Date 05/03/2022 HostedBy byMyrnaBrown IsTaiwannext? 0:00 WORLDRadio-IsTaiwannext? Russia’sinvasionofUkraineofferssomeimportantlessonsforChina’sXiJinping iStockimage NICKEICHER,HOST:ComingupnextonTheWorldandEverythinginIt:China. Theworld’sattentionisfocusedonUkraine,wherethewarwithRussiaisintoitsthirdmonthwithnoendinsight.Westernpowers,especiallyinEurope,considerMoscowthegreatestthreatsinceWorldWarII. MYRNABROWN,HOST:ButtotheEast,anotherthreatlooms. ChinahadlonghaditseyeonTaiwanandhasallbutannouncedplansforaninvasion.Taiwan’smilitaryandreserveforcesholdregulardrillstobepreparedtofendoffamilitaryattack. EICHER:ForAmerica’spart,U.S.officialshaveissuedwarningstoChinanottoattackTaiwan.ButwillthosewarningsbeenoughtodeterXiJinping,givenVladimirPutin’signoringwarningsoverUkraine? JoiningusnowtotalkaboutthatisMarkMontgomery.HeservedmorethanthreedecadesintheU.S.Navy,retiringin2017asarearadmiral.Nowhe’swiththeFoundationforDefenseofDemocracies. BROWN:Goodmorning,sir! MARKMONTGOMERY:Well,thankyouverymuchforhavingmehere. BROWN:ChinahasmadenosecretaboutitsplansforTaiwan.WhatpreparationshasBeijingmadetowardaneventualinvasion? MONTGOMERY:Well,withadefensebudgetthat’ssignificantlysmallerthantheUnitedStates,theyhaveveryeffectivelydesignedanasymmetrictoolsetwithanti-shipballisticmissile,swithlandattackballisticmissiles,withnewdestroyers,witholdbombers,butwithnewmissilesthatcanreallychallengetheUnitedStatesarmedforcesinsidethefirstislandchain.AndthismilitaryinvestmenthasbeencomplementedbysignificantdiplomaticandeconomicoutreachthroughoutEastAsiaandSouthAsia.Andyouknow,oneofthemorenotableaspectsofthatistheBeltRoadInitiative.Butthere'smuchmoretotheireffortsthathavereallyunderminedtheUnitedStatespositionastheeconomicandsecuritypartnerofchoicethroughoutallofSouthandEastAsia. BROWN:WhatlessonsdoyouthinkXiJinpingislearningfromtheWest’sresponsetoRussia’sinvasionofUkraine? MONTGOMERY:Well,Ithinkingeneral,this,hehasprobablybeensurprised.He'sbeensurprisedattheresilienceoftheUkrainians.Andhe'sbeenprobablybeensurprisedattheagilityandthespeedofthecombinedU.S.-EuropeaneffortledbytheBidenadministration,torespondtoRussianaggression.OnethingIthinkhewon'ttakeaway,hewon'tthinkthathisforcesaregoingtobeasunagileandpoorlyperformingastheRussianarmyhasbeen.Ithinkprobablyhisteamistellinghimthatisafactorof,ofRussiandecisionmakingand,andRussianinvestmentinitsmilitaryoverthelasttwodecades,thathasnotbeenreplicatedbytheChinese.Sothey'llfeelthattheirreadinessisatamuchhigherlevelthanthat'sbeenseenintheRussianforces. BROWN:YourecentlywrotethattheUnitedStatesshouldbelearningsomelessonshere,too.WhatdoestheinvasionofUkrainehavetoteachusaboutdealingwithChinaintheTaiwanStrait? MONTGOMERY:Well,acoalitionofthewillingledbytheBidenadministrationhasdonealottoimpactthewarfight.Butofcourse,ourgoalisalwaystodeterafightbeforeithappens.Andinthatcase,probablyourbiggestlessonlearnediswhatwedidn'tdooverthelastthreeorfouryears.AndwhatweshouldhavebeendoingwasmakingsignificantinvestmentsinUkrainethen.Youknow,wemighthavepreventedthiswar,deterredthiswar,savedthe1000sprobably20to30to40,000livesthathavebeenlost,andthehundredsofbillionsofdollarsofeconomicdislocationanddamagethatwe'renowgoingtohavetorepairandpotentially,youknow,afamineinducinglackofagriculturaldeliveryfromRussiaandUkraine,totheMaghreb,toNorthAfrica,andtheMiddleEast.Soallthosethingscouldhavebeenavoided,ifwedeterredthewar.Buttodeterawar,youhavetomaketheinvestmentsaheadoftime. BROWN:WhatshouldtheUnitedStatesbedoingnowtodeteraninvasionofTaiwan? MONTGOMERY:SoIthinkweneedtobegintodoexerciseswithTaiwan'snavyandtheirairforce.Rightnow,ifweweretofightsidebysidewithTaiwan,sotwoplustwowouldequalthree.WhatImeanisthecombinationofuswouldbelesserthantheseparateparts.WeneedtomakeitlikeifweweretofightalongsidetheJapaneseortheBritish,wheretwoplustwoequalsfive,wherethecombinationofourforcestogetherisgreaterthantheconstituentparts.Buttheonlywayyoucandothatistoexercisewithyourallyandpartner.Andtheonecountrythatwillbedeterred,thatwillrecognizewhat'shappening,andthusbedeterredby,potentiallydeterredbyitisChina,whostudiesU.S.andTaiwanoperationsverycarefully. BROWN:TheinvasionofUkrainereallygalvanizedEuropeanditsalliestotakeastrongstandagainstVladimirPutin.DoyouthinkTaiwanwouldseethesamekindofbackingfromtheworld’sdemocracies? MONTGOMERY:SoIdothinktheywouldgettechnicalsupportandpotentiallyfinancialsupport.Butthechallengeis,whathavewenotdonetoPutin,youknow,sinceheinvaded?Thetruthis,theEuropeanshavenotcutofftheiroilandgaspurchases.Sohe'sstillreceiving$1or$1.1billionadayinremittancesorpaymentsfromtheWestforhisoilandnaturalgas.Inotherwords,theywerenotwillingtosignificantlydamagetheireconomyinordertoimposecostonRussiaforwhattheydidinUkraine.SoifyouweretoshiftthisparadigmovertoChina,willtheUnitedStatestakeeconomicmeasuresthataretoughonourpeople,inordertoimposecostsonChina?WilltheJapanesedothesame?WilltheKoreans,willtheAustraliansandwillourEuropeanallies?AndifweallactastheEuropeanshavewithoilandgastowardsRussia,ifweallactwithkindofthatwithtimiditytowardsChina,thenwereallywon'tbeimposingmucheconomiccosts.Andwhatitreallycomesdownto,cantheTaiwan'sbeasresilientastheUkrainianshavebeenandsuffertheattacksfromtheChineseastheUkrainianshavefromtheRussians,whilewedoavery,veryslowsanctionspunishingregime,whichiswhat'shappeningrightnow? BROWN:MarkMontgomeryisanexpertincyberwarfareandChinaattheFoundationforDefenseofDemocracies.Thankyousomuchforjoiningustoday! MONTGOMERY:Thankyouforhavingme. WORLDRadiotranscriptsarecreatedonarushdeadline.Thistextmaynotbeinitsfinalformandmaybeupdatedorrevisedinthefuture.Accuracyandavailabilitymayvary.TheauthoritativerecordofWORLDRadioprogrammingistheaudiorecord. COMMENTBELOW Pleasewaitwhileweloadthelatestcomments... 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