Will Taiwan Be the Next Ukraine? - PRIO Blogs

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be more likely to ignite World War III than the Russian invasion of Ukraine, since a US and Japanese military ... Home Climate&Conflict SecurityDialogue ArcticPolitics MonitoringSouthSudan PRIO.org “Ukrainetoday,Taiwantomorrow.”ThiswarningringsthroughTaiwanesesocialmedia. “Weshouldnotallowthisproblemtobepasseddownfromonegenerationtothenext,”saidXiJinpingin2019aboutthepoliticaldifferencesbetweenthetwosidesoftheTaiwanStrait.TheannualreportfromtheChinesegovernmentthatwasissuedon5March2022,saidChinaiscommittedto“resolvingtheTaiwanquestioninthenewera.The“newera”isnormallyunderstoodasthetimeofPresidentXi. Photo:MarioTama/AFP/NTB Still,fortunately,wehavenotseenopensignsthatChinaispreparingitselftoinvade. …theUSislikelytointervenemilitarilyifTaiwancomesunderattack. AChineseinvasionofTaiwanwouldbemorelikelytoigniteWorldWarIIIthantheRussianinvasionofUkraine,sinceaUSandJapanesemilitaryreactionwouldbelikely. ChinaisthemainrivaloftheUSforglobalpower.IftheUSweretoallowBeijingtotakecontrolofTaiwan,theUSwouldconsideritsbasesinOkinawaandGuamtobethreatened,andJapanwouldbelikelytodevelopitsownnuclearweapons.Topreventthatscenario,theUSislikelytointervenemilitarilyifTaiwancomesunderattack.AlthoughtheUSisnotlegallyboundbythe1979TaiwanRelationsActtodefendTaiwanmilitarily,butonlytoupholdthecapacitytodoso,Bidenhassaidhewill. Singularnationalidentities …peoplehavemovedawayfromtheirRussianandChineseidentities,respectively. TheTaiwanesefearthefateoftheUkrainians.Thisisbecausetheyareinasimilarsituation.Inbothplaces,peoplehavemovedawayfromtheirRussianandChineseidentities,respectively. TocombineaUkrainianandRussiannationalidentityisnowdifficult.InTaiwan,thenumberofpeoplewhoseethemselvesasChinesehasdwindledandthoseclaimingtocombineaTaiwaneseandChineseidentityhavegonedownfrom50to30percent. InUkraine,theidentitychangecameasareactiontotheRussianannexationofCrimeain2014andthewarthatfollowedintheDonbasregion. InTaiwan,thisidentityshiftreceivedaboostwhenChinaslammedadraconianNationalSecurityLawonHongKongin2020.ThisshowedtheTaiwanesewhattheycouldexpectfromnationalunificationin“oneChina.” ThetransformationofnationalidentitiespartlyexplainshowtenaciouslytheUkrainianshaveresistedtheRussianonslaughtinFebruary–March2022.AnotherreasonisthatUkrainehasbuiltmoremilitarycapacitysince2014.ThisisalsothecaseforTaiwan. Changeinpoliticalleadership Thenationalidentitytransformationisreflectedinpoliticalchange.PopularmobilizationledtoregimechangeinKyivin2014.Ukraine’slossofCrimeaandthearmedconflictinDonbasmadeitimpossibleforpro-RussianpoliticianstowinaUkrainianelection. In2016,thepresidentialcandidateofTaiwan’s“one-Chinaparty”(theKuomintang,orKMT)losttoTsaiIng-wen,theleaderoftheDemocraticProgressParty(DPP).Shehasnotmademovestoestablishdejureindependencebychangingtheofficialnameofthestatefrom“RepublicofChina,”butshehasrejectedtheso-called1992consensus,whichsaysthereisjustoneChina,butthatthereisdisagreementaboutwhat“China”means.ThishasledtotensionacrosstheTaiwanStrait.TsaiIng-wenwasre-electedin2020.AsurveyoftheTaiwanesepopulationpublishedon4March2022revealedthat76percentoftherespondentsaresatisfiedwiththestatusquo,whilelessthan15percentwanttochangetheRepublicofChina’sconstitution. ThesimilaritiesbetweenUkraineandTaiwanshouldnotpreventusfromseeingsomebasicdifferences. ThesimilaritiesbetweenUkraineandTaiwanshouldnotpreventusfromseeingsomebasicdifferences.Firstthereisthelegalfactor.UkraineisaninternationallyrecognizedsovereignstatewithfullmembershipintheUN.TheRussianinvasionwasthereforeawarofaggression,violatingtheUNCharter. TheRepublicofChinaonTaiwanlostitsUNmembershiptothePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC)in1971andisconsideredinternationallyasapartof“oneChina”—althoughnotofthePRC.Thisstrengthensthecaseforreunification.China’sNationalPeople’sCongressadoptedananti-secessionlawin2005,whichobligesChinatointerveneinforceifTaiwanshoulddeclareitselfindependent. Protectionfromseaandmountains ThenextdifferencemakesaninvasionofTaiwanexceedinglydifficult:geography. AninvasionofUkraineshouldnormallyberelativelystraightforwardintermsofterrain,asthelandisflat.Tanksandothervehiclescanjustrollacrosstheborder. Bycontrast,TaiwanisamountainousislandwithfewbeachesandisseparatedfrommainlandChinabythebroadTaiwanStrait.Anamphibiousassaultwouldalmostcertainlyfailifmetwithdeterminedresistance.AninvasionofTaiwanwouldthereforeneedtobeprecededbyanavalblockadeoramassiveattackbymissilestodestroyTaiwan’sinfrastructure.ThiswouldgivetheUSandJapantimetoreact.TheChinesePeople’sLiberationArmyisalsofullyawarethat,incontrasttotheRussianArmy,itlackscombatexperience.Chinahasnotgonetowarsince1979,whenitinvadedVietnam. Conclusion Anall-outChineseinvasionofTaiwanisthusimprobable. Anall-outChineseinvasionofTaiwanisthusimprobable.IfChinawantedtoutilizethecrisisinEuropetomakemilitarymovesinitsownregion,thenitwouldprobablytrytodosomethinglesslikelytobeactivelyresisted,suchasbuildingmoremilitarystructuresonreefsintheSouthChinaSeaorperhapsseizingislandsoccupiedbyTaiwanoroneoftheSoutheastAsianstates.Inthisway,BeijingwouldalsotesttheUSreaction,whichwouldbelesslikelytotaketheformofadirectmilitaryintervention. Theauthors SteinTønnesson,ResearchProfessor,PRIO IlariaCarrozza,SeniorResearcher,PRIO Sharethis: Search Search Subscribetoposts Enteryouremailaddresstoreceivenotificationsaboutnewposts. 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