The big Taiwan question: Is China's invasion imminent?

Ever since 1949, when nationalist forces fleeing the Chinese civil war set up a government on the island, China's leaders have held fast to the ... ATaiwanesesoldieraimsarifleduringamilitaryexercisesimulatingChina'sPeople'sLiberationArmyinvadingtheislandonJuly27inNewTaipeiCity,Taiwan.Rai/GettyImagesGlobalThebigTaiwanquestion:IsChina’sinvasionimminent?XiJinpingmayhavesomethingelseinmind.JoshuaKeating, GlobalSecurityReporter, and LiliPike, ChinaReporterAugust10,2022It’snotwar…yet.HouseSpeakerNancyPelosi’s(D-Calif.)visittoTaiwanandChina’sfuriousresponsehaveprovokedwhatiswithoutquestionthemostserioussecuritycrisisintheTaiwanStraitsincethe1990s.Andit’snotover.Butifthisweek’smilitarydrillshavebeenunprecedentedintheirscaleandproximitytotheisland,China’sleadersappeartohaverefrainedfromstepsthatwouldsignalthepreludetoarealinvasion—oranyactionthatmightprovokeaTaiwaneseresponse.(OnTwitter,formerCIAanalystJohnCulversuggestedsuchmeasuresmighthaveincludedoverflyingtheislandwithmannedaircraft,mobilizingamphibioustransportshipsorsendingshipsintoTaiwan’sterritorialwaters,thoughthere’ssomedisputeastowhetherthatlastoneactuallydidtakeplace.) HearmorefromJoshuaKeatingaboutthisstory: Butisitonlyamatteroftime?OnTuesday,Taiwan’sforeignministertoldreportersthat“ChinahasusedthedrillsinitsmilitaryplaybooktoprepareforinvasionofTaiwan.”Noteveryoneissosure.OnMonday,whenaskedifitwasthePentagon’sassessmentthatChinawouldinvadeinthenexttwoyears,UndersecretaryofDefenseforPolicyColinKahlrespondedsuccinctly,“No.”ADVERTISEMENTIsawaroverTaiwaninevitable?EvenChinesePresidentXiJinpinghimselfmaynotknow.“IdonotseeanyevidencethatadecisionhasbeenmadetouseforceagainstTaiwan,”BonnieGlaser,directoroftheAsiaProgramattheGermanMarshallFund,toldGrid.“Iseesubstantialevidencetothecontrary:thatChinahasnotmadeadecisionbutthatithasnotruleditout.”Sowhat,exactly,arethefactorsweighingonthatdecision?Whenisitlikelytocome?AndifChinachoosesnottoinvade,whatmightitdoinsteadtoaccomplishitsaimsinTaiwan?WhyChinamayactsoonerratherthanlaterTheChineseCommunistPartyof2022isverydifferentfromtheorganizationMaoZedongledwhenthePeople’sRepublicofChinawasborn.Butonafewcoreissues,ithasremainedremarkablyconsistent.OneofthoseisTaiwan.Eversince1949,whennationalistforcesfleeingtheChinesecivilwarsetupagovernmentontheisland,China’sleadershaveheldfasttothegoalofrealizing“thecompletereunificationofthemotherland.”WhathaschangedisthatChinahasonlyrecentlyreachedthepointwhereitcouldplausiblyachievethatreunificationbyforce.Now,inthemidstofwhatsomearecallingthe“fourthTaiwanStraitcrisis”inresponsetoPelosi’strip,manyanalystshavedrawncomparisonstothe“thirdcrisis,”duringwhichChinaconductedmilitarydrillsandmissiletestsaroundTaiwaninresponsetoavisitbyPresidentLeeTeng-huitotheUnitedStates.ThedifferencethenwasthatfewbelievedChinawouldactuallytrytoinvadeTaiwan.Chinasimplydidn’thavethemilitarymight.Sincethen,thecountryhasembarkedononeofthelargestandfastestmilitarybuildupsinhistory.China’sPeople’sLiberationArmyhasgroundforcesofaround1.04milliontroops,morethan400,000ofthemstationedintheTaiwanStraitarea,comparedwithTaiwan’s88,000active-dutygroundforces.Itholdsoverwhelmingadvantagesinships,aircraftandartilleryaswell.AsGridhasreported,aTaiwanwarwouldlikelybemassiveandbloody.AndiftheU.S.didnotdirectlyintervene(moreonthatlater),Taiwan’sownmilitaryleadersestimatetheycouldholdoutforonlyabouttwoweeksagainstaChineseinvasion.ADVERTISEMENTUltimately,politicalratherthanmilitaryconsiderationsmaydriveXi’scalculus.HehassaidinthepastthattheTaiwanproblemmustnotbe“passedonfromgenerationtogeneration”anddescribedreunificationasanecessarycomponentofalargerpoliticalprojectcalledthe“greatrejuvenationoftheChinesenation”whichisduetobecompletedby2049,thePeople’sRepublic’s100thanniversary.ButmanyexpertsbelieveXihopestocompletereunificationaspartofhisownlegacy,whichsuggestsafastertimeline.(Xiwillbe94in2049,andwhileheseemstobeinnohurrytostepdown,chancesarehewon’tbeinpowerbythen.)“ThetruthisthereisnorealnationalsecurityinterestatstakeforChina[inTaiwan],”OrvilleSchell,directoroftheCenteronU.S.-ChinaRelationsattheAsiaSociety,toldGrid.“What’satstakeisXi’spride.”Meanwhile,theoveralltrendlinesdon’tlookfavorablefor“peacefulreunification.”Chinamaylookattheexperienceofthelastdecadeandconcludethat“softpower”hasrunitscoursewhenitcomestoTaiwan.XiheldahistoricmeetingwithTaiwan’sthen-PresidentMaYing-jeouin2015,butjustayearlater,Taiwanesevotersreplacedhimwiththemorestaunchlypro-autonomyTsaiIng-wen.TheTaiwaneseandChineseeconomiesaredeeplyintertwined—Chinaaccountsformorethan40percentofTaiwan’sexports,andhundredsofthousandsofTaiwaneseliveonthemainland—butpollsshowthatTaiwan’scitizens,particularlyyoungerones,areonlybecomingmoreanti-Chineseintheiroutlookandmorestaunchly“Taiwanese”intheirpersonalidentity.AsoneTaiwanesepoliticalscientistrecentlytoldtheNewYorkTimes,“TheattractivenessofthecarrotsinChina’sTaiwanpolicy—economicinducements—hasnowfallentoitslowestpointsincetheendoftheColdWar.”Finally,aturntomilitarymeasurescouldbepromptedbyexternalevents.China’s2005Anti-SecessionLawspecifiedthreeconditionsunderwhichChinawouldemploy“nonpeacefulmeans”toachievereunification.TheseincludeTaiwaneseauthoritiesformallypursuingsecessionfromChina,“incidentsentailingTaiwan’ssecessionfromChina”orasituationinwhich“possibilitiesforapeacefulreunificationshouldbecompletelyexhausted.”ChinesemilitaryofficershavewarnedinthepastthataTaiwaneseindependencereferendumcouldbeconsideredcauseforwar.(WhilesomemembersofTsai’spartysupportfullindependence,shehasstoppedshortofcallingforthis.)It’salsoconceivablethatU.S.actionsmightbeatrigger;formerTrumpadministrationCabinetmembersMarkEsperandMikePompeohavebothmadespeechesinTaiwaninthepastyearcallingontheU.S.toabandonthe“OneChinapolicyandformallyrecognizeTaiwan’ssovereignty.”SuchadeclarationbyacurrentU.S.official(fornow,theBidenadministrationhasmaintainedthattherehavebeennochangestothestatusquoinU.S.-Taiwanrelations)couldbeconsideredbyBeijingasthesortofthingthatrulesout“possibilitiesforpeacefulreunification.”AsChina’sMinistryofForeignAffairsputitrecentlyaftertalksbetweenXiandPresidentJoeBiden,“Thosewhoplaywithfirewillperishbyit.”ADVERTISEMENTWhyBeijingmightwaitIt’snotexactlythemostnovelinsight,butthemainreasonwhyChinawouldbereluctanttousemilitaryforceisthatwarisinherentlydangerousandunpredictable.Forallitsmanpowerandfirepower,thePeople’sLiberationArmyhasn’tfoughtawarsince1979—andthatwasadisastrousinvasionofVietnam.Amphibiousinvasionsareamongthemostlogisticallycomplexoperationsinwarfare,andthePLAwouldtakeheavycasualtiesduringacrossingoftheTaiwanStraitandalandingonTaiwan’sshores.EvenifTaiwan’sgovernmentweretofallquickly,Chinacouldfinditselffightingalongandprotractedinsurgencyinmountainousandheavilyurbanizedterrain.Thenthere’sthebiggestquestion:WhattheU.S.woulddo?UnlikewithUkraine,theU.S.governmenthasnotruledoutthepossibilitythatitwouldintervenedirectlytodefendTaiwan.(Italsohasn’taffirmeditswillingnesstorespondmilitarily—astanceknownas“strategicambiguity.”)BidenhasonthreeoccasionssaidthathebelievestheU.S.hasacommitmenttodefendTaiwanifitwereattacked.TheWhiteHousehaswalkedbacktheseremarkseachtime,butasJohnsHopkinsUniversityprofessorHalBrandshaswritten,“Onceisagaffe.Threetimesisapolicy.”FromwhatweknowofChina’sownmilitaryplanning,itassumesastrongpossibilityofU.S.interventionandhasincludedscenariosinwhichChinalaunchesapreemptiveattackonU.S.basesinthePacific.Hubrisorno,theChineseprobablybelievetheycanhandleTaiwan’smilitaryonitsown.Ashootingwarwithanuclear-armedsuperpowerrivalisanaltogethermoresoberingscenario.ForalltheriskssuchawarwouldentailforthepeopleTaiwan,ChinaandplanetEarth,wealsoshouldn’tlosesightoftherisksitwouldposetoXihimself.“XihasacredibilityissuewhenitcomestoTaiwan,”saidYunSun,directoroftheChinaProgramattheStimsonCenter.“ButifhefightsawarforTaiwanandheloses,hehasasurvivalproblem.”TheUkrainefactorAlmostsincetheRussiansinvadedUkraine,thatwarhasinvitedcomparisontoapotentialconflictwithTaiwan.Thesimilaritiesareclear:amajorworldpowerclaiminghistoricalrightstonearbyterritory,warningtheoutsideworldagainstinterferingandthreateningtouseforcetomakegoodonitsclaim.Ukrainehasofcoursealsoshownthepowerofasmallerneighbortoresistandpunchback—andthewillingnessoftheU.S.anditsalliestosupportthatresistance.Still,theoften-madeanalogiesareonlysouseful.AsSuntoldGrid,“Taiwandoesn’thaveaPoland,”meaningafriendlyneighboringcountryfromwhichitcanberesuppliedandonewhichisalso—becauseofitsNATOstatus—off-limitstoRussianfire.China’snavaldrillsthisweekillustrateditsabilitytoquicklyblockadethewatersaroundTaiwan.AndXiwouldnothavetotoleratetrain-loadsofHIMARSandammunitionpouringinthewayRussianPresidentVladimirPutinhas.Outsidepowerswouldnothavetheluxuryofchoosingamiddlegroundbetweenfull-scalemilitaryinterventionandleavingTaiwantoitsfate.EventsinUkraineandelsewherehaveledtonewenthusiasmintheU.S.andothercountriesforprovidingTaiwanwithmilitaryaid.Evenifthere’slittlechanceofachievingparitywithBeijing’sforces,thethinkinggoes,Taiwancanacquirethekindof“asymmetric”capabilitiesthatwouldmaketheprospectofwartoounpalatableforChina’sleaderstocontemplate.ButthisaidcouldhavetheunintendedconsequenceofmakingChinafeelagreatersenseofurgencyabouttheTaiwanissue.AsGlasernoted,themorerelevantUkrainecomparisonmaynotbe2022but2014,whenUkraine,withsubstantialU.S.aidandassistance,respondedtoRussia’ssmaller-scaleinvasionwithamajorefforttotrainandprofessionalizeitsmilitaryintotheforcethatisnow,atleastholdingtheRussianinvasionatbay.“TheChinesedoreallyseemtobeconcernedabouttheUnitedStatesreallyfortifyingTaiwan’sdefenseandreallyenablingTaiwantodefenditself,”shesaid.U.S.armssalestoTaiwanhavealreadybeenrisingsteadilyoverthepastdecade.IfthefourthstraitcrisisspursbothWashingtonandTaipeitogetmoreseriousabouttrainingandequippingforaninvasion,itcouldbeseenasanargumentforactingsoonerratherthanlater.ADVERTISEMENTChina’sotheroption:“peaceful”coercionForChina’sleaders,it’snotnecessarilyabinarychoicebetweengoingtowarandthestatusquo.EvenifChinadoesn’tformallyabandon“peacefulreunification”asitsframework,ithasotheroptionsforratchetinguppressureonTaiwan.“IntheChineselexicon,coercionisnot‘unpeaceful,’”Sunsaid.Whatcouldthislooklike?WemayalreadybegettingapreviewinresponsetothePelosicrisis.Inresponsetothespeaker’svisit,ChinahasslappedbansonimportsofhundredsofTaiwaneseproducts,mainlyfooditems.(IthassofarstoppedshortofbansonindustrialgoodsandtechproductslikeTaiwan’sall-importantsemiconductors,whichmayhighlightoneareawhereTaiwanhasleverage.)ChinahasalreadyspentyearsworkingtopressureandcajolethefewremainingcountriesthatstillhaveformaldiplomaticrelationswithTaiwantoswitchtheirallegiancetoBeijing.(Only14suchcountries,mainlyislandsinthePacificandCaribbean,stillhavesuchtieswithTaiwan.)PrivateactorsrangingfromDeltaAirLinestothewrestlerJohnCenahavebeenforcedtoissuegrovelingapologiestotheirChinesecustomersforimplyingthatTaiwanisacountry.ThesanctionsChinaslappedonPelosiandherfamilythisweekprobablywon’thavemuchimpactonherlife,butChinahasdemonstratedrepeatedlythatitcanimposeseriouscostsonsmallercountriesinresponsetoperceivedslightsontheTaiwanissue.Morerecently,ChinahasimposedsteepfinesoncompaniesliketheFarEasternGroup,amajorconglomeratethatdoesasignificantamountofbusinessinChina,overdonationstopro-autonomypoliticiansandpartiesinTaiwan.Suchpressureislikelytoescalate.SchelltoldGridheforeseesastrategyofincrementalescalationbyChina—so-calledsalamitactics,asinsmallslicesofescalation—toshiftthestatusquooverTaiwaninitsfavor.“WhatIfearisthatChinawillnotdoafrontalassaultonTaiwan,buttheywillbegintodoonethingafteranotherthatneverquitegivestheUnitedStatesorJapanortheQuadAllianceanycasusbelli,”hesaid.ADVERTISEMENTAnexamplecouldinvolveChinadeclaringalloftheTaiwanStraitasitsterritorialwaters.Underinternationallaw,countrieshavesovereigntyovertheseas12nauticalmilesofftheircoasts.ChinahasgenerallyrespectedthatlimitinTaiwan’scase,butofcourse,itdoesn’tactuallyconsiderTaiwantobeacountry.Inastatementthisweek,China’sforeignministrysaidthatChina’srecentmilitarydrillswerebeingheld“inwatersoffitsownterritory”“TheymayjustsaynoplanecangotoTaiwanthatisn’tguidedbyChineseairtrafficcontrol,noshipcangotoanyTaiwaneseportwithoutgoingthroughChinesecustoms,becauseTaiwanispartofChina,”Schellsaid.“AndthatwaytheycouldpreventanyshipmentofarmsfromgettingintoTaiwan.ItverydifficultfortheUnitedStatesoranyoneelseknowexactlywhattheproperlevelofresponseistosomethinglikethat.”Taiwandependsonimports,mostlyliquefiedgas,for88percentofitspower.IfChinatriedtointerferewiththeseimports,itcouldcrippletheisland’seconomy.ThecyberdomainalsogivesChinaampleopportunitytoratchetupthepressure.Taiwan’sgovernmentalreadyfacesmillionsofminorcyberattacksaday.DuringPelosi’svisit,thewebsitesofthepresident’sofficeandforeignministrywereforcedofflinebyhackers.JasonHsu,aformerTaiwaneselegislatornowatHarvardUniversity’sKennedySchool,toldGridhebelievesChina’shackerswill“definitelymakeattemptstodestabilizeorweakenTaiwanordivideTaiwan.Theymightnotlaunchafull-scaleattackontheindustrialnetwork,buttheymightdosomethingonitsperipheralnetworkinordertocauseadisturbanceordysfunction.”WillanyofthiswinheartsandmindsinTaiwan?Absolutelynot.ButthethinkinginBeijingmaybethatanoverstretchedanddecliningUnitedStateswon’tbearoundtoprotectTaiwanforever.Soonerorlater,thisthinkinggoes,anisolatedanddemoralizedTaiwanwillbeforcedtocometotermswiththemainland.ADVERTISEMENT“Salami”tacticsInrecentdays,thephrase“salamislicing”hasbeenusedtodescribetheactionsofbothsidesinthisconflict.FromtheperspectiveofTaipeiandWashington,China’sexercisesandaggressiverhetoricareslicingawayattheterritorialstatusquoandTaiwan’sdefactoindependence.FromBeijing’sperspective,actionslikeavisittoTaiwanfromawomanwhoissecondinlinetotheU.S.presidency,andisoneofthemostpowerfulofficialsinthepresident’sownparty,areevidencethattheU.S.isslicingawayatitslong-standing“OneChinapolicy”andgettingeverclosertoformallybackingTaiwan’sindependence.There’sstillroomleftforWashingtontoampupitssupportforTaiwan’sdefenseandforChinatocontinueitsmilitarybuildup,itsnavalexercisesanditspoliticalpressureontheisland’sleaders.Butsoonerorlater,thesalamimightbegone,cutawayfrombothsides.Andallthatwillbeleftistheknives.ThankstoLillianBarkleyforcopyeditingthisarticle.JoshuaKeatingGlobalSecurityReporterJoshuaKeatingisaglobalsecurityreporterforGridfocusedonconflict,diplomacyandforeignpolicy.joshuakeatingLiliPikeChinaReporterLiliPikeisaChinareporteratGridfocusedonclimatechange,technologyandU.S.-Chinarelations.lili_pikeTOPICSTaiwanChina