Will Taiwan be the next Ukraine? - POLITICO.eu

Will Taiwan be the next Ukraine? For Beijing, Russia's difficult war offers a cautionary tale. Opinion WillTaiwanbethenextUkraine? ForBeijing,Russia’sdifficultwaroffersacautionarytale. AnattackonTaiwannowwouldriskappearingcoordinatedwithMoscow|SamYeh/AFPviaGettyImages By DavidZweig March14,2022 4:02am ShareonFacebook ShareonTwitter ShareonLinkedin ShareonWhatsApp Mail Print DavidZweigisprofessoremeritusattheHongKongUniversityofScienceandTechnology. IfXiJinpingwasthinkingofmakingamoveonTaiwan,afterRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,he’lllikelybethinkingagain.FortheChinesepresident,thewarinEuropeisplayingoutlikeacautionarytale.Theuseofbrutalmilitaryforceinthe21stcentury,hewon’thavefailedtonotice,comeswithconsiderablerisk. Ukrainianshavedemonstratedthatpeoplefighthardwhentheirbacksareagainstawall,andthesamewouldlikelyholdtruefortheTaiwanese,whovaluetheirdemocracyandindependencefromtheirlargerneighborjustasmuch—ifnotmore—thanUkrainians.Taiwan’smilitarymayberightlycriticizedforitspoorlycoordinatedforces,anditsgovernmenthasbeenhesitanttoinvestinitsowndefense,butaTaiwanesepeopleunitedbyacommonthreatcouldfightalotharderthananticipated. True,China’sPeople’sLiberationArmy(PLA)wouldbemoremotivatedthantheRussianforces—nationalreunificationisamantraburieddeepinitscore—butanamphibiousinvasionacross100milesofseawouldalsobemuchhardertopulloffthanRussia’scurrentlandinvasion.AndwhiletheUnitedStateshasrejecteda“no-flyzone”overUkraine,asitwouldrisknuclearconfrontation,AmericanplanesflyingfromU.S.aircraftcarriersofftheeasterncoastofTaiwancouldeasilycreateaformof“no-sailzone”betweenFujianandTaiwan. TheRussianinvasionhasalsodemonstratedhowapparentlymodestleaderscanrisetotheoccasionandrallyanoutgunnedsocietyintoresistinganinvasion.UkrainianPresidentVolodymyrZelenskyyhasemergedasanunlikelyhero.WhyexpectanylessfromTaiwanesePresidentTsaiIng-wen,whosetoughstanceagainstChinaalreadyearnsherstrongpraise?OnecaneasilyenvisionthesupportshewouldgarneraroundtheworldwhenfacingoffagainstamachoPLAandChineseCommunistPartyleadership. U.S.PresidentJoeBiden,too,wouldhavelittletroublemobilizinghisalliesandpartnerstosupportAmerica’sdefenseofTaiwan,leadingtoaverydifferentdynamicthantheonecurrentlyplayingoutinEasternEurope.ThesewouldincludetheUnitedKingdom,Japan,SouthKorea,AustraliaandperhapsevenIndia—theU.S.’spartnerintheQuadrilateralSecurityDialogue. TheWest’ssolidarityduringtheUkrainecrisissofarwillnotbewastedonXieither.TheEuropeanUnionisChina’smajortradingpartner.Runningafoulofit,aswellastheU.S.andJapan,wouldbedangerousforaleaderwhoknowshemustraiselivingstandardsathome.China’sdeepintegrationintotheglobaleconomyandtheleverageofBeijing’s$1,068billionintreasurybondswouldmakeWesternsanctionsmorepainfultoimplement,butthesecouldnotberuledout,preceding,orafter,aTaiwaninvasion. WithPutinwreakinghavocinUkraine,anattackonTaiwannowwouldriskappearingcoordinatedwithMoscow.SuchanattackwouldquicklybeseenasaneffortbytheSino-Russianauthoritarianalliancetounderminedemocraticforces,rollingbackyearsofBeijing’ssoftpowerefforts,suchastheBeltandRoadInitiative—China’smassiveglobaltransportandinfrastructureproject Moreover,atthe20thPartyCongressoftheChineseCommunistPartylatethisyear,Xiwillbeaskingthepartyleadershiptoentrusthimwithsupremecontrolforatleastanotherfiveyears.Already,hiswillingnesstowedChinatoPutinbydeclaringSino-Russianrelationsa“friendshipwithoutlimits”mayhaveledsometoquestionhisleadership. AfullscaleinvasionofTaiwanwouldfurtherhighlighttherisksofempoweringanunfettereddictator. ThesituationisunlikelytogetbetterforXiafterthewar,whentheU.S.government,heedingitsownlessonsfromUkraine,willlikelyreinforceTaiwanesedefenses,strengthenitscommitmenttodefenddemocraciesandchallengetheexpansionof“authoritarianbullies.” ButifPutin’sinvasionofUkraineisawarningtoXi,whetherhewillheeditremainstobeseen.Ifhedoes,however,choosetomimichisRussiancounterpart’sattemptatempirerebuildingthroughhisownwarofreunificationagainstTaiwan,hewilllikelydiscoverthatevenabsolutedictatorsarelimitedinwhattheycanaccomplish. Morefrom... DavidZweig Readthelatestprintissueonline WarinUkraine:awatershedmomentforEuropeandefensepolicyandtransatlanticsecurity? June9,2022 11:00amCEST Registerforonlineattendance Learnmore Nextup EuropeatLarge ViktorOrbán:Dealmakerorvalues-breaker? 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