Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive ...

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How Do Cognitions and Emotions Influence Risky Behavior Articles ClaudiaRepetto CatholicUniversityoftheSacredHeart,Italy TetianaHill UniversityofHertfordshire,UnitedKingdom KatarzynaSekścińska UniversityofWarsaw,Poland Theeditorandreviewers'affiliationsarethelatestprovidedontheirLoopresearchprofilesandmaynotreflecttheirsituationatthetimeofreview. Abstract HowDoCognitionsandEmotionsInfluenceRiskyBehavior HormonalPredictorsofRisk-Taking ChoicePreferencesandRegulatoryPolicy Summary AuthorContributions ConflictofInterestStatement References SuggestaResearchTopic> DownloadArticle DownloadPDF ReadCube EPUB XML(NLM) Supplementary Material Exportcitation EndNote ReferenceManager SimpleTEXTfile BibTex totalviews ViewArticleImpact SuggestaResearchTopic> SHAREON OpenSupplementalData REVIEWarticle Front.Psychol.,01February2017 |https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.00102 UnderstandingRiskyBehavior:TheInfluenceofCognitive,EmotionalandHormonalFactorsonDecision-MakingunderRisk PetkoKusev1*,HarryPurser2,RenataHeilman3,AlexJ.Cooke1,PaulVanSchaik4,VictoriaBaranova5,RoseMartin1andPeterAyton6 1DepartmentofPsychology,KingstonUniversityLondon,London,UK 2DepartmentofPsychology,NottinghamTrentUniversity,Nottingham,UK 3DepartmentofPsychology,Babeş-BolyaiUniversity,Cluj-Napoca,Romania 4DepartmentofPsychology,TeessideUniversity,Middlesbrough,UK 5DepartmentofPsychology,LomonosovMoscowStateUniversity,Moscow,Russia 6DepartmentofPsychology,CityUniversityofLondon,London,UK Financialriskydecisionsandevaluationspervademanyhumaneverydayactivities.Scientificresearchinsuchdecision-makingtypicallyexplorestheinfluenceofsocio-economicandcognitivefactorsonfinancialbehavior.However,verylittleresearchhasexploredtheholisticinfluenceofcontextual,emotional,andhormonalfactorsonpreferencesforriskininsuranceandinvestmentbehaviors.Accordingly,thegoalofthisreviewarticleistoaddressthecomplexityofindividualriskybehavioranditsunderlyingpsychologicalfactors,aswellastocriticallyexaminecurrentregulationsonfinancialbehavior. HowDoCognitionsandEmotionsInfluenceRiskyBehavior Theoriesofjudgementsanddecision-makinghaveexploredtheinfluenceofeconomicandpsychologicalfactorsonriskybehavior.However,verylittleresearchhasofferedaholisticexplorationoftheinfluenceofcontextual,content,emotional,andhormonalfactorsonpreferencesforriskininsuranceandinvestmentbehaviors.Moreover,inthisreviewarticle,weaimedtoaddressthisgap:weofferedevidencethatthesefactorshaveanindependentinfluenceonpreferenceformationandbehaviorunderrisk.Accordingly,ourreviewhighlightsaneedtoinvestigatehowvariationinthesefactorsproducesvariationindecision-makingunderrisk. UtilitarianExpectationsandDecisionNorms Non-psychological(e.g.,economic)norms,rulesandregulationsaretheexpecteddecisionenvironmentofanyhumanfinancialbehavior.Thus,humandecisionagentsare(i)expectedtoact‘normatively’andmakerationaldecisions,and(ii)evaluateandassessaccordingtonormativecriteriaandutilitarianexpectations.Theseexpectationsarequiteoftenunrealistic,ashumanagency(psychologicalprocessingandbehavior)isassessedandmeasuredwithexternallydesignedeconomictools(e.g.,rationalnormsandrules),whichtypicallydonotincludepsychologicalparameters(e.g.,VonNeumannandMorgenstern,1947).Inthisarticle,wesummarizetheoreticalandempiricalevidencefortheroleofseveralmajorpsychologicalandbiologicalfactorsinfluencinghumanagency,expectednormativeactsandrespectivebehavioraloutcomes. Accordingtonormative(economics)anddescriptive(psychology)theoriesofdecision-making(e.g.,VonNeumannandMorgenstern,1947;TverskyandKahneman,1992)humandecision-makingbehaviorisinformedbycomputationalintegrationsofattributessuchasprobabilitiesandmoney(inadecision-makingcontext).Furthermore,humanagentsengaginginfinancialbehaviors(e.g.,investmentandprotective)aresupposedtoobeynormativeexpectationsbyperformingutilitytrade-offsbetweenthecomputedoutputs(psycho-economicvariablessuchasexpectedvalues)andcertainmonetaryalternatives(seeKahnemanandTversky,1979;TverskyandKahneman,1992).Arationaldecision-makermustchoosethealternativewiththehighestutility,independentofdecision-makingcontext(i.e.,verbalpresentationanddescription).Crucially,normativetheoryimpliesthatanyinformationnotpertinenttocalculatingtheexpectedvaluesoftheoptionsshouldnotinfluencethechoices. RiskyBehavior:TheRoleofDecisionContext,Content,andExperience Inmanystudiesmeasuringhumanriskypreferencestherespondentsaretypicallyinvitedtomakeadecision,whichinvolvesachoicebetweenaprobabilistic/uncertainoption(suchas50%chanceofwinning£4000)andasureoption(certainwinof£2000).Forexample,basedontaskswithhypotheticalmonetarygambles,prospecttheory(TverskyandKahneman,1992)predictsthattwopsychologicalparameters(contextuallossandgainframingandprobabilitylevelsemployedinthegamble)underliehumanriskydecisions.However,recentresearch(Kusevetal.,2009,2012,2016;Vlaevetal.,2010;KusevandvanSchaik,2011)exploredtheroleofmemoryanddecision-makingcontentonriskydecisions.Theseexperiments(Kusevetal.,2009)demonstratedthatthebehavioraleffectsofdecision-makingcontent(typeofutilityandassociatedmemory)areindependentofthatofcontext(e.g.,textualsummariesanddescriptions).Specifically,differencesincontextualdescriptionsofrisk(e.g.,probabilitylevels),monetaryamounts,aswellasaccessibilitytodecision-makingcontent(e.g.,vividnessofeventsinmemoryandactivatedemotions)alterrespondents’riskpreferencesandchoices(e.g.,Slovic,1987;Kusevetal.,2009;seealsoTverskyandKahneman,1992;TverskyandWakker,1995).Furthermore,theoristshavearguedthattheparticularcombinationofcontextualfactors,accessibilitytocontentofdecision-makingutility,tasktypeanddemands,andcomputationalskillstriggeraparticulartypeofbehavioralresponse–normativelyrationalorirrationalriskybehavior(e.g.,KusevandvanSchaik,2011). Itisalsowellestablishedthathumanagentsexperiencedecision-makinginformationratherthanrelyingondescriptionsofdecision-makinginformation.Forexample,riskyeventsintherealworldareexperiencedsequentiallyandoftenwithoutcontextualsummaries(Hertwigetal.,2004;Stewartetal.,2006;Kusevetal.,inpress).However,someriskyeventsarenotexperiencedindividuallyovertime,butarereviewedretrospectivelyandcanalsoimmediatelybeinspectedholisticallyaswithlearningaboutdecisionsfromdescriptions(TverskyandKahneman,1992).Nevertheless,withbothdecision-makingexperiencesagentsrefertoexactlythesameutilitariandatabeforeexpressingtheirriskpreferences.Forexample,researchininsurancedecision-making(Kusevetal.,2009)revealedthatbothdecisionsfromexperienceanddescriptionshaveanindependentinfluenceonriskpreference.People’sexperiencesofeventsleakintodecisionsevenwhennormativeriskinformationisexplicitlyprovided(Kusevetal.,2009).Specifically,respondentsexaggeratedtheriskforaccessibleutilitarianeventsinmemory,indicatingthatvariationindecisioncontentproducesvariationinpreferencesforrisk(Kusevetal.,2009;KusevandvanSchaik,2011). Insurancedecisionsandotherprecautionarybehaviorsareaimedatminimizingoravoidingrisk.Typicallythebenefitsoftakingprecautionaryactionsexemplifyrisk-aversebehavior(HersheyandSchoemaker,1980;Kusevetal.,2009).Health-relatedinsurancebehaviorandprivatelong-termcareinsuranceareofparticularinterestforpolicymakersandthegeneralpublic.Resultsfromarecentsurveyonretirement-planningbehaviorrevealedthatemotionsmightbeimportantpredictorsoflong-termcareinsurancepurchaseintentions(TennysonandKyungYang,2014).Morespecifically,itwasfoundthatrespondentsforwhomfamilyisagreatersourceoflifesatisfactionexpresshigherpurchaseintentions.Theauthorssuggestthatstrongemotionaltieswiththefamilymayleadtoastrongerdesiretopreventburdeningthemwithlong-termcareresponsibilities(TennysonandKyungYang,2014).Respondents’willingnessanddecisionstobuyinsurancearenotinfluencedonlybycognitiveoreconomicfactors,butalsoemotionalfactorscomeintoplayandinthefollowingsectionweprovideempiricalargumentstosupportthisclaim. EmotionsandEmotionRegulationStrategiesinRiskyBehavior Inthissection,wewillfocusontheeffectsofemotionsondecision-making.Namely,someofthemostinfluentialtheoreticalandempiricalperspectivesonthecomplexinteractionsbetweenaffectiveprocessesanddecisionprocesseswillbereviewed,followedbyapplicationsininsuranceandinvestmentdecisions.Inthelastpartofthissection,wewillintroducetheconceptofemotionregulation(ER)andpresentrecentstudieslookingintotheeffectsofthemechanismspeopleusetocontrolemotionsontheirdecisionperformance. Whilemainstreameconomicstendstoemployaxiomaticnormativeassumptionsaboutdecisionagency,researchevidencefrompsychologyandneuroscienceprovidestrongempiricalsupportfortheeffectsofhumanemotionsonriskybehavior(e.g.,BR25;BR9;BR29;BR35;BR37).Themaineffortsinthestudiesofemotion-decisioninteractionareinunderstandingtheroleofemotionsindecision-making(LoewensteinandLerner,2003;Damasio,2005),andtheirneuralunderpinnings(Panksepp,1998). Severalmodelsandtheoriesontheemotion-decisionprocessesinterplayattempttoexplainandpredictthedecisionconsequencesofaffectivefactors.LoewensteinandLerner(2003)presentasystematizationofpossibleinteractionsbetweenemotionsanddecision-making.Oneimportanttheoreticalcontributionsuggestedbytheseauthorsistheclassificationofemotionsasimmediateoranticipatedemotions.Anticipatedemotionsrefertotheemotionspeopleexpecttofeelasaconsequenceofchoosingonedecisionalternativeoveranother.Expectedutilitytheoryorotherconsequentialistmodelsassumethatpeoplepredictutilitarianandemotionalconsequences(associatedwithchoiceoptions),andchoosetheoptionthatmaximizespositiveemotionsandminimizesnegativeemotions.Incontrast,immediateemotionsincludeallaffectivestatesthatthedecision-makerhasatthetimeofthedecision.Theseimmediateemotionscanbedirectlyrelatedtothedecisioncontext.Forexample,whenapersonexperiencesanxietyinfrontofariskysituation,orindirectly,whenthedecision-makerfeelshappy,andmoreoptimisticaboutpositiveoutcomesofariskydecision(LoewensteinandLerner,2003).Notably,inthelastfewdecades,economistshavechieflybeenpreoccupiedwithstudyinganticipatedemotions,suchasregretanddisappointment(LoomesandSugden,1982),whereaspsychologistshavefocusedonimmediateemotions(Loewenstein,2000). SincethepublicationofLoewensteinandLerner’s(2003)work,numerousstudieshaveexploredtheeffectsofanticipatedandimmediateemotionsonalargevarietyofdecisiontasksandcontexts.Examplesareinbehavioralrisk-takingandperceptionofrisk(e.g.,Slovicetal.,2004;Damasio,2005;Miuetal.,2008),judgementsofhappinessandoverallsatisfactionwithlife(SchwarzandClore,1983),consumerdecision-makingandtheendowmenteffect(Lerneretal.,2004;Hanetal.,2007),aswellasimplicationsofsocialmoodandindividualdifferencesinstockmarketindexesandotherfinancialoutcomes(Olson,2006).Accordingly,therehasbeenongoingdebateaboutwhichemotioncategoryhasmoreinfluenceonriskybehavior.Forinstance,Schlösseretal.(2013),offeredstrongempiricalsupportfortheclaimthatimmediateemotionspredictriskydecisions,beyondtheeffectsofanticipatedemotionsorthesubjectiveprobabilityattachedtooutcomes.Inasimilarvein,GrableandRoszkowski(2008)showedthatdecision-makersinahappymoodhavehigherlevelsoffinancialrisktolerance,holdingbio-psychosocialandenvironmentalfactorsconstant.Usingamoodinductionprocedure,Stantonetal.(2014)reportedthatahappymoodinductionincreasedrisk-seekingbehaviorcomparedtoneutralmood,whereasasadmoodinductionproceduredidnotinducebehavioraldifferencesincomparisontoneutralmood. However,theexistingliteratureprovidesamixedimageregardingtheeffectsofpositiveandnegativemoodsoraffectivestates.Forinstance,positiveemotionalstatesareassociatedwithincreasedproblemsolvingcapacity(Isen,1984,1987,1993),rememberingpositiveevents(Bower,1981),increasedrisk-taking(KahnandIsen,1993),andoptimismtowardthepossibilityoflivingpositiveeventsinthefuture(WrightandBower,1992;Nygrenetal.,1996).Otherstudieshavelinkedpositivemoodoremotionalstatestoreducedrisk-taking.Forinstance,IsenandPatrick(1983)putforwardthe“moodmaintenancetheory”whichstatesthatpeopleinhappymoodsaremorereluctanttotakeriskssincetheydon’twanttounderminetheirpositiveemotionalstate(Isenetal.,1988). Ontheotherhand,negativeaffectivestateswereshowntopredisposeindividualstowardrememberingnegativepastevents(Bower,1981)aswellasoverestimatingthechancesofanegativeeventinthefuture(JohnsonandTversky,1983).Consensusinthescientificliteratureregardingtheeffectsofnegativeemotionsonrisk-takingisalsolacking.Whereassomepapersdocumentedthefactthatexperimentallyinducednegativeemotionsaswellasanxiousanddepressivestatesleadtomorerisk-aversepreferences(LeithandBaumeister,1996;YuenandLee,2003;Miuetal.,2008;Heilmanetal.,2010),otherauthorsprovideempiricalevidencesupportingapositiverelationbetweennegativeemotionsandrisk-taking(MittalandRoss,1998;RaghunathanandPham,1999;Bruyneeletal.,2009). Asreviewedintheprecedingparagraphs,mosttheoriesandempiricalstudiesofaffectiveinfluencesondecisionalprocesseshavecontrastedtheeffectsofpositiveemotionsondecision-makingwiththeeffectsofnegativeemotions.Thesestudiesstartedfromtheassumptionthatallpositiveemotionsandallnegativeemotions,respectively,shouldhavesimilarimpactondecision-makingingeneral,orrisk-taking,inparticular.However,aspreviouslyreviewed,behavioraldataregardingaffectiveinfluencesonrisk-takingarelessconsistent.LernerandKeltner(2000,2001)proposedthe“appraisaltendencyhypothesis”toaddressthisissue.Theirtheoryassertsthateachemotionisassociatedwithaspecificappraisaldimension,which,inturn,willdeterminetheinfluenceofspecificemotionsonjudgementsanddecisions.Forinstance,basedonLernerandKeltner’s(2000,2001)results,inducedfearwasassociatedwithpessimisticjudgementsoffutureeventsandrisk-aversechoices,whereasinducedangerwasassociatedwithmoreoptimisticjudgementsandamorerisk-seekingbehavioralpattern.Inconclusion,appraisalsofcertaintyandcontrolmoderateand/ormediateemotionaleffectsonrisk-taking.Takingappraisaldimensionsofsame-valenceemotionsintoaccountmighteliminatesomeoftheinconsistencyinpreviouslyreportedresults. Lookingspecificallyatfinancialdecision-making,thereareseveralstudiesthatunravelthecomplexdynamicsbetweenemotionsandriskydecisions.VanWindenetal.(2011)observedthatthetimingoftheresolutionofrisk(thetimethatpassesbetweentheriskydecisionandtheconsequencesofthatdecision)andanticipatoryemotionspredictedinvestmentbehavior.Delayingtheresolution,fornegativeanticipatoryemotions(withhigh-probabilitysuccess)discouragedinvestmentbehavior,whereasdelayingtheresolutionforpositiveanticipatoryemotions(withlow-probabilitysuccess)encouragedtheinvestmentbehavior.Similarly,GambettiandGiusberti(2012)arguedthattraitanxietypredictslow-riskinvestmentdecisions,whereastraitangerisassociatedwithhigherfinancialrisk-taking.Inaddition,experimentalfindings(Guven,2012)revealedthathappierpeoplespendless,andare(i)lesslikelytohavedebts,(ii)moreconcernedaboutthefutureandthussavemoremoney.Likewise,consumerbehaviorisalsoinfluencedbyaffectivestates:astudyconductedbyCryderetal.(2008)showedthatpeopletendtospendmoremoneywhentheyareinasadmood. Withregardtoprecautionarybehavior,experimentalresultshaveshownthatbuyinginsuranceismoreattractiveforitemswithaffectivedescriptionsinducingparticipants’fearoflosingtheitems(Petrovaetal.,2014).Accordingly,asurveystudy,analyzingdatafromUKhouseholdswhoeitherhadexperiencedfloodingorwhowereatriskofflooding,foundthatpeople’sprotectivedecisionswereinfluencedmorebyanticipatednegativeemotions,suchasanxietyorinsecurity,thanbymaterialandfinancialconsiderations(Harries,2012).Ifthedecisiontoinsureagainstfloodingispartlydeterminedbyaffectivereactionsandexperience,moreresearchshouldbecarriedoninthisarea,inordertoinformbetterpublicpolicy. However,thereisevidencethatpeopleemployregulationstrategiesdesignedtoaltertheiremotionalreactions.Underoptimalcircumstances,thesuccessofregulatorystrategyassuresagoodemotionalandsocialfunctioningoftheindividual.Nevertheless,whenERmechanismsaremalfunctioning,theycanincreasetheriskfordevelopingsymptomsofpsychiatricdisorders(Davidsonetal.,2000;Phillips,2003).OneofthemostinfluentialapproachesinthestudyofemotionandERistheprocessmodelofemotions(Gross,1998,2002).ERisaconstructthatsubsumesalltheactionsthatpeopletakeinordertocontrolwhichemotionstheyhave,whentheyhavethemandhowtheyexperienceorexpressthoseemotions(Gross,2002). OneERstrategythathasreceivedparticularattentioniscognitivereappraisal(Gross,2002;OchsnerandGross,2007;Siemeretal.,2007).Thisstrategyimpliesthatchangingthesituation’smeaningaltersitsemotionalimpact.Incontrast,theERstrategyofexpressivesuppressioninvolvesinhibitingongoingemotion-expressivebehaviors(Gross,1998;OchsnerandGross,2007).IndividualdifferencesinhabitualuseofERstrategies(i.e.,cognitivereappraisalandexpressivesuppression)havebeenassociatedwitheffectsonaffective,social,andcognitivefunctioningoftheindividual,physiologicalchangesorevenpsychologicalwell-being(JohnandGross,2004). BecauseoftheeffectivenessofERstrategies,itispossiblethatthesestrategiesmight,infact,moderatetheinvolvementofemotionsinfinancialdecision-making.Mostofthepreviousstudiesonemotionanddecision-makinghavenotcontrolledforER.Therefore,theeffectsofERonfinancialdecision-making,rangingfrom‘coloring’thecontentofthoughtstointerferingwithinformationprocessingandcontext(previouslyattributedtoacuteemotions)mightactuallybemoderatedbyERstrategiessuchascognitivereappraisalorexpressivesuppression.Onlyrecently,however,havescholarsbeguntoinvestigatethesepossibilities,andindoingsotheyhavediscoveredthatERcanindeedmoderatetheeffectsthattaskandincidentalemotionshaveondecisions(Heilman,2006,2014;KahnemanandFrederick,2007;Heilmanetal.,2010;MiuandCrisan,2011;HeilmanandMiclea,2015;Szaszetal.,2016). Psychologistsandeconomistsinvestigatingriskybehaviorshouldbeinterestedinunderstandinghowandinwhatcontextsemotionsinfluenceriskyattitudesandbehavior.Moreover,howcantheseemotionsbeefficientlycontrolled,inordertoreachtheutilitarianbeneficialdecisionoutcomes(e.g.,theoptionwiththehighestutilityoverall)?Althoughmuchhasbeenwrittenaboutneurotransmitters(e.g.,dopamine,NorburyandHusain,2015)inrelationtorisk,acriticalareathat,untilrecently,hasbeenrelativelyneglectedbypsychologistsandeconomistsisthehormonalunderpinningofrisk.Hormonesareparticularlyrelevanttounderstandingcontext-specificity,giventhatsomeoftheirbloodlevelscanvaryaccordingtocontextandsomeoftheireffectsaretransientandshort-lasting(e.g.,ReskoandEik-Nes,1966;Ditzenetal.,2009).Thefollowingsectiongivesanoverviewofthehormonalpredictorsofrisk-taking. HormonalPredictorsofRisk-Taking HormonalCorrelatesofChangesinEnvironment Cortisolisknownasthestresshormone,withhigherlevelsreflectingincreasedamountsofstressandlowerpsychologicalwell-being(e.g.,DickersonandKemeny,2004).DickersonandKemeny(2004)highlightedthattherelationshipsbetweenanumberofputativepsychologicalstressorsandcortisollevelshavenotbeenconsistentlyestablishedintheliterature.Thehypothalamic–pituitary–adrenocortical(HPA)networkistriggeredbythereleaseofcorticotrophin-releasinghormone,inturnstimulatingreleaseofadrenocorticotropinhormonefromtheanteriorpituitary,finallycausingsecretionofcortisolintothebloodstreamfromtheadrenalcortex(e.g.,Sapolskyetal.,2000).TheactivationoftheHPAnetworkhasbeenassociatedwitharangeofpsychologicalchanges,mostnotablystress(e.g.,Selye,1956). Acommonformulationisthattheadrenocorticalsystemisactivatedbycircumstancesinwhichtheindividualispreventedfrompursuinggoals,orwherethosegoalsareotherwisethreatened(CarverandScheier,1999).Withinthisframework,inwhichtheindividual’smotivationiscentral,stressistriggeredbecauseoftheadaptiverelevanceofinterferencewithgoals.Basicthreatstoone’ssurvivalorsafetyelicitreleaseofcortisolfromtheHPAnetwork,servinganadaptivepurpose,giventhatcortisolaugmentsthebioavailabilityofenergyforfightorflight,amongstotherassociatedphysiologicaloptimisationsforsurvival-relevantbehaviors(LovalloandThomas,2000).Althoughsuchself-preservatorythreatsaregenerallyconsideredthearchetypalconditionsthatstimulatecortisolrelease(Sapolskyetal.,2000),theliteratureindicatesthatthreatstoother,morehuman-specific,goalsarealsoassociatedwithraisedlevelsofcortisol. DickersonandKemeny(2004)describethe‘socialself-preservationsystem,’whichfunctionstomonitortheenvironmentforthreatstotheindividual’ssocialstatusorself-esteem.Inlinewiththisidea,theavailabilityofsocialsupporthasbeenassociatedwithareducedlevelofcortisol,asindexedbysalivaryassay(Kirschbaumetal.,1995),andametanalysisbyDickersonandKemeny(2004)indicatedthatcortisolresponsesweremarkedlyaugmentedunderconditionsofsocial-evaluativethreat.Somemorerecentworkhasbroadenedthisresearchareatoincludetheinteractionsofcortisolwithanotherneurotransmitter,oxytocin,whichisassociatedwithtrustandsocialacceptance. Oxytocinaffectstheextenttowhichwefeeltrusttowardothers,withhigherlevelsassociatedwithincreasedtrust(Zaketal.,2004;Kosfeldetal.,2005).Itsreleaseisnotunderdeliberateconsciouscontrol,butisdeterminedbyphysiological,social,andorganizationalconditions(e.g.,Zaketal.,2004).Cortisolsuppressesoxytocin,therebydirectlyreducingfeelingsofinterpersonaltrust,whereasoxytocinreducescortisollevels(Ditzenetal.,2009). Oxytocinisnotjustacorrelateofwell-being,butadirectcauseofit,asshownbyanumberofstudies,involvingintranasaladministrationoftheneuromodulator(e.g.,Ditzenetal.,2009;VanIJzendoornetal.,2012),whichcandemonstrablyreducetheproductionofcortisol(Cardosoetal.,2013).Forexample,astudybyCardosoetal.(2013)demonstratedthatintranasaladministrationofoxytocinattenuatedcortisollevelrelativetoplacebo,althoughitshouldbenotedthatmooditself–thepsychologicalinstantiationofstress–wasnotaffectedbythismanipulation.Inanotherstudy,however,byHeinrichsetal.(2003),acombinationofsocialsupportandintranasaloxytocindemonstrablyloweredsalivarycortisol,butalsobothdecreasedanxietyandincreasedcalmness. Othersteroidhormonesbesidecortisol(estrogenandprogesterone)alsoplayanimportantroleinhumanphysiologythroughoutthelifecourseandcanbereliablymeasuredinsaliva,withcarefulassessmentoftiminginthemenstrualcycle(GavrilovaandLindau,2009).Progesterone,estrogen,andtheadrenal-stresshormones(suchascortisol)areintimatelylinked(EdwardsandMills,2008).Stressknocksthehormonalpatternsoutofrhythmandalsoplacesagreaterdemandonthebody’snutrientreserves,leadingtotirednessandaviciouscircleoffeelinglessabletocopewithstress.Estrogenhasbeenshowntoincreasenon-reproductivebehavioursinmice,includinganxiety,fear,andphysicalactivitylevel(running;MorganandPfaff,2001).Progesteroneplaysanimportantroleinbrainfunctionandisoftencalledthe“feel-goodhormone”becauseofitsmoodenhancingandantidepressanteffects(Wierman,2007). HormonalResponsetoChallenges,Risk,andAmbiguity Cortisolhasrecentlybeenimplicatedinaccountsoffluctuationsinrisk-takingbehavior.CoatesandHerbert(2008)investigatedtheimpactofmarketvolatility–entailingalackofinformationalavailability,orambiguity–onapopulationoftradersintheCityofLondon,findingthatthetradersunderwenta68%increaseinaveragecortisollevelsasmarketvolatilityincreasedoveraperiodofaround1week,inadditiontoamarkedlyhigherlevelofcortisolintheafternoonrelativetothosemeasuredinthemorningswhichwastheresultofanincreaseinsustainedeffortandexpectedchallenge.Suchchronicandacuteraisedcortisollevelsappeartohaveratherdifferenteffectsonthecognitivesystem:acuteincreasesareassociatedwithhighermotivationandmoresensation-seeking(Piazzaetal.,1993;Putmanetal.,2010),whereaschronicraisedcortisollevelhasbeenlinkedtoimpairedexecutive(attention)control(Listonetal.,2009),andappearstocauseorexacerbatebothanxiety(Korte,2001)anddepression(Sapolsky,2000). Kandasamyetal.(2014)hypothesizedthat,ontheabovebasis,acutelyraisedcortisolwould,ifanything,increaserisk-takingbehavior,whereaschronicaugmentationofcortisolwouldleadtoriskaversion.Inadouble-blind,placebo-controlled,crossover,randomizedtrialinvolving36peopleoveran8-dayperiod,participants’riskpreferencesweremeasuredusingaseriesofcomputertasks.Cortisollevelwasbothacutelyandchronicallyraisedbyadministrationofhydrocortisone,apharmaceuticalvariantofcortisol.Inlinewiththeauthors’predictions,financialrisk-takingwasnotreliablyaffectedbyacuteelevationofcortisol,butwasreducedbysustainedelevation.Specifically,withchronicelevationofcortisol,participantsoptedforbetswithlowervarianceandalsolowerexpectedreturns.Thisfindingisillustrativeincallingintoquestionthewidelyadoptedassumptionthattheutilityfunctionsunderlyingriskpreferencesareunchangingthroughtime(e.g.,seeKusevetal.,2009,foradetailedquestioningofsuchassumptions). Inadditiontoinvestigatingtheroleofcortisolintraders,CoatesandHerbert(2008)alsomeasuredleveloftestosterone,anandrogensteroidhormone.Theauthorsfoundthatindividualswithahigheraveragelevelofthehormonetendedtogeneratemoreprofitinfinancialtransactions.Althoughtestosteronelevelhasbeenpositivelyassociatedwithhigh-riskbehaviors,suchasaggressiveviolence,irresponsiblesexualbehavior,anddrugabuse(MiddlemanandDurant,1996),littleresearchhasfocusedoneconomicrisk.Oneofthelargerandbetter-controlledstudieswasconductedbyStantonetal.(2011),involving154participantsperformingtheIowaGamblingTask,usedtoassesspeople’swillingnesstotakerisks.Inthetask,participantsselectcardsfromfourdifferentdecks,whichdifferintermsofthechancesoffinancialrewardsandpenalties.Participantsprovidedsalivasamples,whichwereanalyzedforendogenoustestosteronebyradioimmunoassay.Theresultsindicatedthatindividualswithahighleveloftestosteronetendedtotakegreaterrisksthanthosepeoplewithlowtestosterone,withtherelationshipbetweentestosteroneandrisk-takingsimilarbetweenmenandwomen.Althoughnogenderdifferencesinriskpreference/aversionwerefoundinthisstudy,thebulkofstudieshavetendedtofindthatmenarelessaversetoriskthanwomen. AreviewbyCrosonandGneezy(2009)showedthatmentendtomakeriskierdecisionsinsituationswhereriskisfinancialandameta-analysisof150studiesofgenderdifferencesinriskbehaviorbyByrnesetal.(1999)foundthatmenweresignificantlymorelikelytomakeriskydecisionsinawidevarietyofrisk-relevanttypesofbehavior.Whileendogenoustestosteroneisarguedtoaugmentrisk-takinginatransitorymanner,ithasalsobeenproposedthattestosteronecanhaveamorepermanentimpactonbraindevelopmentinutero(ArnoldandBreedlove,1985).Someresearchershaveusedtheratioofthelengthofthesecondandfourthfingers,knownasthe2D:4Dratio,asamarkerofthelevel,oratleasteffects,ofprenataltestosterone(Manning,2002).Incontrasttotheeffectsofplasmatestosteroneatanyparticularpointintime,thereisaclearcausal,ratherthanmerelycorrelational,interpretationofanylinkbetween2D:4Dratioandfinanciallyriskybehavior,becausethisratioisfixedpriortobirth(McIntyreetal.,2005)andthereforecannotbeinfluencedbyriskybehaviorinadulthood.Coatesetal.(2009)studiedthefinancialperformanceofagroupofmaletradersandfoundthatlower2D:4Dratios,reflectinghigherprenatalexposuretotestosterone,mademoremoneythanthosewithhigherratios.Itshouldbenoted,however,thatgreaterfinancialreturnsarenotnecessarilyindicativeofgreaterrisk-taking(indeed,theoppositecouldbethecase).Garbarinoetal.(2011)investigatedlinksbetween2D:4Dratioandrisk-takingdirectly,inataskinvolvingfinancialdecisions.Theauthorsfoundthatbothmenandwomenwithlower2D:4Dratiostendedtomakeriskierchoices.Furthermore,theyarguedthatthe2D:4Dratiocouldpartiallyaccountforgenderdifferencesinrisk-taking.Intriguingly,thereisalsoevidencethatmen’srisk-takingbehaviorcanbemodulatedbythepresenceofwomen,inawaythatappearstodependonprenatalexposuretotestosterone:VandenBerghandDewitte(2006)foundthatmenwithlower2D:4Dratios,inthepresenceofwomen,becamemoreimpulsivebyselectinglessdesirablefinancialoutcomes.However,thebehaviorofmenwithhigher2D:4Dratioswasnotalteredbyfemalepresence. Oxytocin,outlinedabove,hasalsobeenimplicatedasamodulatorofriskbehavior.Zaketal.(2007),usingadouble-blinddesign,administered34maleswithintranasaloxytocinand34malesweregivenplacebo.Participantsplayedtwogames:theultimatumgameandthedictatorgame,inrandomlyformeddyadsofDecision-maker1orDecision-maker2.Intheultimatumgame,Decision-maker1wasallotted$10andaskedtoofferasplitofthemoneytoDecision-maker2;ifDecision-maker2acceptedtheoffer,themoneywasdividedbetweenthemasperthesplit,butifherejecteditthennomoneywaspaidatall.IntheroleofDecision-maker2,participantswereaskedtostatetheminimumacceptableoffer.Agenerousofferwasdefinedasonethatwasgreaterthanrequiredforacceptance.Inthedictatorgame,thestructurewassimilartotheultimatumgame,butDecision-maker2hadnochoicebuttoaccepttheofferbyDecision-maker1.Thisgamewasincludedtogiveameasureofaltruism(bypeopleintheroleofDecision-maker1),sothatitcouldbedissociatedfromgenerosityintheultimatumgame.Participantsgivenoxytocinwere80%moregenerousthanthosegivenplacebointheultimatumgame,butwerenomorealtruisticinthedictatorgame.Theauthorsnotethatthisincreaseingenerosityresembledanincreaseriskaversion:peopleintheroleofDecision-maker1mayhavemademoregenerousofferstoreducethechanceofbeingrejectedandendingupwithnothing. ChoicePreferencesandRegulatoryPolicy Normativemodelsofdecision-makingsuchasexpectedutilitytheorysuggestthatdecision-makersshouldmakechoicesinordertomaximizeutility(VonNeumannandMorgenstern,1947).Theassumptionthatdecision-makersfollowrationalnormativeassumptions,however,hasbeenrefutedfrequentlyintheliterature(TverskyandKahneman,1992).Decision-makershavebeenshown,instead,todivertfromutilitymaximizationduetotheinfluencesfromdecisioncontext,content,experienceandemotions(KahnemanandTversky,1979;Hertwigetal.,2004;Kusevetal.,2009).Moreover,evenonceachoiceismade,decision-makersarestillvulnerable.Forexample,inastudyemployingasleight-of-hand(achoiceparadigmwhichpermitstheexperimentertosurreptitiouslymanipulatetherelationshipbetweenthechoiceandoutcomethatparticipantsexperience),participantsshiftedtheirpoliticalvotingintentions(Halletal.,2013).Respondentswereaskedtostatetheirvotingintention,andintroducedtoapoliticalsurveyofwedgeissuesbetweentwopoliticalcoalitions.Usingsleight-of-hand,votingintentionreplieswerealteredandplacedintheoppositepoliticalcoalitionandparticipantswereinvitedtoreasonaboutthemanipulatedwedgeissues.Remarkably,participantsdetectednomorethan22%ofthemanipulatedreplies. Theneedtoprotectdecision-makersbylegislationisevident.Duetothevulnerabilityandfragilityofchoicepreferences,itisessentialthatconsumersareprotectedbylegislationnotonlyfromexplicitdeceptionbutalsofromdecisionsubtleties,context,andcontent.Inthissection,weshallbrieflyexploreandevaluateaspectsofEuropeanfinanciallegislation,directives,andcommunicationsregardingbothconsumerprotectionandfinancialeducation,inrelationtodecision-makingtheory. TheConsumerCreditDirective(EuropeanParliament,2008)setsouttostandardizeinformationgivenregardingconsumercredits.Onenormativeaspectinthisdocumentisaboutadvertisingregulationsregardingcreditproducts.Theymustcontaininformationabouttheinterestrate,creditamount,andtheannualpercentagerate(APR).WhilstAPRincorporatesadditionalcostsratherthanjustrepresentingtheborrowingrate,thetwoarecloselycomparable,duetothefactthattheyarerepresentedandcommunicatedinpercentages.Itiswellestablishedindecision-makingresearch(e.g.,NewallandLove,2015)thatconsumersexperiencedifficultiescomprehendinginterestinformation,whichisanissuegiventhatcreditproductsaretypicallycommunicatedinpercentages. Similarly,theIntegrationofEuropeanMortgageCreditMarketscommunication(EuropeanParliament,2007)isdesignedtofacilitatean‘increasingproductdiversity’whichisexpectedto‘improveconsumerconfidence.’Thiscommunicationimpliesthatmoredecisionoptionsarebeneficialtotheconsumers–“…havingacompleterangeofmortgageproducts…”(EuropeanParliament,2007).However,theoristshavearguedthatdecision-makerscannotperformmulti-attributedecisionsfromtheavailableoptionsinthecontext(Huberetal.,1982;Simonson,1989).Accordingly,empiricalresearchhasrevealedthatachoicebetweenthreedecisionoptions(e.g.,threedifferentcreditproducts)eachonespacedontwodecisionattributes(e.g.,borrowingrateandAPR)induceddecisionerrors.Forexample,intheirchoice,consumerswillalwaysselectonlybetweentwodecisionoptionsonasingleattribute–choosingtheoptionwiththehighestutilityonthisattribute(andignoringanyotheravailableattributesinthecontext),whichisnotnecessarilytheoptionwiththehighestutilityoverall.Moreover,evendecisionexpertssuchasphysiciansareunabletoovercomecontextualdecisionbiases.RedelmeierandShafir(1995)foundthatadditionalchoiceoptions(numberofmedications)decreasedthelikelihoodofprescribingmedicationandincreasedthelikelihoodofsendingthepatientstohipreplacementsurgery. BoththeDistanceContractsforFinancialServiceslegislation(EuropeanParliament,2002a)andtheEUConsumerRightsDirective(EuropeanParliament,2011)enforceconsumers‘Righttowithdraw,’givingtheconsumers14daysopportunitywindowtowithdrawfromafinancialcontract.Whilstthisappearstoprotectconsumersallowingthemtoevaluatetheirneedsonceinpossessionoftheitem,thereare,however,psychologicalfactorsatplaythatmaybiastheutilityvaluationofaproductonceowned.Forexample,theEndowmentEffectrevealsthatpossessionofanitemincreasesitsperceivedvalue(Kahnemanetal.,1990). Theendowmenteffectisnotonlylimitedpurelytoexperimentalsettings,buthasbeenshowntoaffecttradingonagrandscalewithintheAustralianstockexchange–tradersovervaluedtheirstockportfolios(JohnstoneandFurche,2006).Whilstreturninganitemispossibleandsupportedbythelegislation,itisunlikelytohappenasitsperceivedvaluewillincreaseduetopossession. TheInsuranceBrokeragedirective(EuropeanParliament,2002b)proposesthatonlyfinanciallycapableshouldpeopleactasinsuranceintermediaries.Yet,asoutlinedinthisarticle,eventhosewhomakedecisionsprofessionallyaresusceptibletobehavioralbiases(JohnstoneandFurche,2006). However,somelegislationsaccommodatebehavioralscienceknowledge.TheEUConsumerRightsDirective(EuropeanParliament,2011)aimstoensurethefairtreatmentofconsumerswhenpurchasinggoodsorservices.Thisdirectivebanspre-tickedboxesforadditionalgoodsorservicesonline.Thusprotectingconsumersfromunintendedpurchasesofgoodsandservices.ThedirectiveaddressestheDefaultEffect–atendencyfordecision-makerstoremainwithadefaultoption,ratherthanswitchpreferences(JohnsonandGoldstein,2003). Summary Accordingtonormativetheory,anyinformationthatisnotdirectlyusedtocalculatetheexpectedvaluesofthedecisionoptionsshouldnotinfluencethechoices.However,variablessuchasdifferencesincontextualdescriptionsofrisk,monetaryamounts,and–importantly,aswehaveshown–accessibilitytodecision-makingcontent(e.g.,activatedemotions)changeriskpreferencesandchoices(e.g.,Kusevetal.,2009).Thereisstrongempiricalsupportfortheeffectsofemotionsonriskybehavior(e.g.,Guven,2012).Peoplearenotslavestotheiremotions,however,withemotionalregulationstrategiesassociatedhavingeffectsonaffective,socialandcognitivefunctioning,andpsychologicalwell-being(JohnandGross,2004).Thereareseveralkeyhormonalcorrelatesanddeterminantsofrisk.Cortisol,testosterone,andoxytocinhavebeendemonstratedtobecausallyinvolvedinmodulatingriskybehavior.Chronicsustainedelevationofcortisolservestomakepeoplemoreriskaverse,whereasbothadministeredandnaturallyhightestosteroneincreasesriskybehavior.Oxytocinappearstoincreasegenerosityinamannerresemblingrisk-aversion,butmorestudyisneededtoaddconfidencetothisinterpretation.Theinfluenceofcognitive,emotional,andhormonalfactorsandtheirinteractionondecision-makinghaveimplicationsforregulationtoimprovepeople’sdecision-making. AuthorContributions PKinitiatedthereviewarticle;PK,HP,RH,andACdraftedthemanuscript;PVS,VB,RM,andPAprovidedfeedbackandsuggestions;Allauthorsapprovedthefinalversionofthemanuscriptforsubmission. ConflictofInterestStatement Theauthorsdeclarethattheresearchwasconductedintheabsenceofanycommercialorfinancialrelationshipsthatcouldbeconstruedasapotentialconflictofinterest. 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Editedby: ClaudiaRepetto,CatholicUniversityoftheSacredHeart,Italy Reviewedby: TetianaHill,CranfieldUniversity,UK KatarzynaSekścińska,UniversityofWarsaw,Poland Copyright©2017Kusev,Purser,Heilman,Cooke,VanSchaik,Baranova,MartinandAyton.Thisisanopen-accessarticledistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttributionLicense(CCBY).Theuse,distributionorreproductioninotherforumsispermitted,providedtheoriginalauthor(s)orlicensorarecreditedandthattheoriginalpublicationinthisjournaliscited,inaccordancewithacceptedacademicpractice.Nouse,distributionorreproductionispermittedwhichdoesnotcomplywiththeseterms. *Correspondence:PetkoKusev,[email protected] COMMENTARY ORIGINALARTICLE Peoplealsolookedat SuggestaResearchTopic>



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