China has the power to take Taiwan, but it would cost ... - CNN

... more missiles and more ships than Taiwan or its possible supporters, ... minister reacts to report on sexual offenses in the military ... ChinahasthepowertotakeTaiwan,butitwouldcostanextremelybloodypriceAnalysisbyBradLendonandIvanWatson,CNNUpdated0524GMT(1324HKT)June1,2022JUSTWATCHEDExpert:ChinalearningalessonfromRussia'sinvasionofUkraineReplayMoreVideos...MUSTWATCH(15Videos)Expert:ChinalearningalessonfromRussia'sinvasionofUkraineWatchShanghairesidentsracetogetoutaftermonthsoflockdownCanada'snationaldefenseministerreactstoreportonsexualoffensesinthemilitaryWildboarwreakhavocinthiscityassomecallforthemtobekilledInAmerica,amassshootingatanelementaryschool.InCanada,tighterguncontrolDronefootageshowsdestructionafterdeadliestfloodinginBrazilregionManindisguisethrowsacakeatthe'MonaLisa'RussiaandChinaareaheadofUSinhypersonicmissiletechnology.Here'swhy'It'sacatastrophe':RussiansstrikeLysychanskwithmaximumintensityTensionsboiloverasJewishnationalistsmarchthroughPalestiniandistrictofJerusalem'sOldCityUkrainewillfightuntilitgainsallitsterritoryback:PresidentZelenskyMandiesafterbeingrestrainedinpolicecarfilledwithunknowngasInsidethetrenches:CNNjoinsUkraine'sarmyonthefrontlinesDamningreportrevealsDowningStreet'spartyculturePfizerCEOpledgesvaccinestolow-incomecountriesatzeroprofitSeoul,SouthKorea(CNN)OnhisfirsttriptoAsiaasUnitedStatesPresidentlastweek,JoeBidengavehisstrongestwarningyettoBeijingthatWashingtonwascommittedtodefendingTaiwanmilitarilyintheeventofanattackfromChina.Biden'scomments,whichcomparedapotentialChineseattackonTaiwantoRussia'sinvasionofUkraine,appearedtodeviatefromWashington'sdecades-oldpolicyof"strategicambiguity"ontheissueandseeminglyraisedthepossibilityofamilitaryclashbetweenUSandChineseforces.It'sthethirdtimeBidenhasmadesimilarremarkssincetakingofficeand,justasontheothertwooccasions,theywerequicklywalkedbackbytheWhiteHouse--whichinsistsitspolicyhasnotchanged.However,itinevitablyraisesthequestion:ifChinatriestotakeTaiwan,aretheUnitedStatesanditsalliesabletostopit?Andthealarmingansweris:Quitepossiblynot.AnalystssayChinahasmoretroops,moremissilesandmoreshipsthanTaiwanoritspossiblesupporters,liketheUSorJapan,couldbringtoafight.ThatmeansthatifChinaisabsolutelydeterminedtotaketheislanditprobablycan.Butthere'sacaveat;whileChinacouldlikelyprevail,anyvictorywouldcomeatanextremelybloodypriceforbothBeijinganditsadversaries.ReadMoreManyanalystssayaninvasionofTaiwanwouldbemoredangerousandcomplexthantheAlliedD-DaylandingsinFranceinWorldWarII.USgovernmentdocumentsputthenumberofkilled,injuredandmissingfrombothsidesduringthealmostthree-month-longNormandycampaignatalmosthalfamilliontroops.WhatyouneedtoknowaboutChina-TaiwantensionsAndtheciviliancarnagecouldbefar,farworse.Taiwan'spopulationof24millionpeopleispackedintodenseurbanareaslikethecapitalTaipei,withanaverageof9,575peoplepersquarekilometer.ComparethattoMariupol,Ukraine--devastatedinthewarwithRussia--andwithanaverageof2,690peoplepersquarekilometer.Despiteitsnumericaladvantagesinsea-,air-andland-basedforcesintheregion,ChinahasAchillesheelsineacharenaofwarthatwouldforceBeijingtothinklongandhardaboutwhetheraninvasionisworththeoverwhelminghumancost.HerearesomescenariosofhowaChineseinvasionmightplayout:ThenavalwarChinahastheworld'slargestnavy,witharound360combatvessels--biggerthantheUS'fleetofjustunder300ships.Beijingalsohastheworld'smost-advancedmerchantfleet,alargecoastguardand,expertssay,amaritimemilitia--fishingboatsunofficiallyalignedwiththemilitary--givingitaccesstohundredsofadditionalvesselsthatcouldbeusedtotransportthehundredsofthousandsoftroopsthatanalystssayChinawouldneedforanamphibiousinvasion.Andthosetroopswouldneedmassiveamountsofsupplies."ForBeijingtohavereasonableprospectsofvictory,thePLA(People'sLiberationArmy)wouldhavetomovethousandsoftanks,artilleryguns,armoredpersonnelvehicles,androcketlaunchersacrosswiththetroops.Mountainsofequipmentandlakesoffuelwouldhavetocrosswiththem,"IanEaston,aseniordirectorattheProject2049Institute,wroteinTheDiplomatlastyear.ChinaisalarmedbytheQuad.ButitsthreatsaredrivingthegroupclosertogetherGettingaforceofthatsizeacrossthe110miles(177kilometers)oftheTaiwanStraitwouldbealong,dangerousmissionduringwhichthosevesselscarryingthetroopsandequipmentwouldbesittingducks."ThethoughtaboutChinainvadingTaiwan,that'samassacrefortheChinesenavy,"saidPhillipsO'Brien,professorofstrategicstudiesattheUniversityofSt.AndrewsinScotland.That'sbecauseTaiwanhasbeenstockinguponcheapandeffectiveland-basedanti-shipmissiles,similartotheNeptunesUkraineusedtosinktheRussiancruiserMoskvaintheBlackSeainApril."Taiwanismass-producingthesethings.Andthey'resmall,it'snotlike(China)cantakethemallout,"O'Briensaid."What'scheapisasurface-to-shipmissile,what'sexpensiveisaship."TheChineseguided-missiledestroyerChangshareturnstoaportinSanyaCity,China,inMarch2017.Still,Chinacould--givenitsnumericaladvantage--simplydecidethelosseswereworthit,pointedoutThomasShugart,aformerUSNavysubmarinecaptainandnowananalystattheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurity."There'sgonnabehundredsifnotthousandsof(Chinese)vesselstheretosoakupthose(Taiwanese)missiles,"Shugartsaid.Missilesaside,Chinawouldfacemassivelogisticalhurdlesinlandingenoughsoldiers.Conventionalmilitarywisdomholdsthatanattackingforceshouldoutnumberdefenders3to1."Withapotentialdefendingforceof450,000Taiwanesetoday...Chinawouldneedover1.2millionsoldiers(outofatotalactiveforceofmorethan2million)thatwouldhavetobetransportedinmanythousandsofships,"HowardUllman,aformerUSNavyofficerandprofessorattheUSNavalWarCollege,wroteinaFebruaryessayfortheAtlanticCouncil.HeestimatedsuchanoperationwouldtakeweeksandthatdespiteChina'smaritimestrength,it"simplylacksthemilitarycapabilityandcapacitytolaunchafull-scaleamphibiousinvasionofTaiwanfortheforeseeablefuture."AircraftcarrierkillersSomeoftheproblemsthatwouldfaceChina'snavyinTaiwanwouldalsofaceanyUSnavalforcesenttodefendtheisland.Ballisticmissilecanhitmovingships,ChinasaysTheUSNavyseesitsaircraftcarriersandamphibiousassaultships,bristlingwithF-35andF/A-18jets,asitsspearinthePacificandwouldhaveanumericaladvantageinthisarea.TheUShas11carriersintotal,comparedtoChina'stwo.However,onlyabouthalfarecombatreadyatanyonetimeandeventhesemightbevulnerable.O'BrienandotherspointoutthatthePeople'sLiberationArmyhasmorethan2,000conventionallyarmedmissiles,manyofwhichithasdevelopedwiththeUSNavy'sprizedaircraftcarriersinmind.OfparticularconcernwouldbeChina'sDF-26andDF-21D--toutedbyBeijing'sstate-runGlobalTimestabloidin2020as"aircraftcarrierkillers"andthe"world'sfirstballisticmissilescapableoftargetinglargeandmedium-sizedvessels."AsO'Brienputsit,"TheUSbetterbecarefulthinkingabout,inanykindofwarenvironment,sendingcarrierbattlegroupsclosetoChina...Ifyou'refightingastate-to-statewar,you'regoingtostayfarawayfromshore."OthersaremoreconfidentintheUScarriers.RearAdm.JefferyAnderson,thecommanderoftheUSNavy'sCarrierStrikeGroupThreecenteredonthecarrierUSSAbrahamLincoln,recentlytoldCNNhisshipsaremorethanreadytodealwiththekindofmissilesthatsanktheMoskva."OnethingIdoknowaboutourUSshipsisthey'reextremelysurvivable.Notonlyaretheylethal,buttheyareextremelysurvivable,"hesaid.AChineseairforcefighterjettakesoffduringtrainingexercisesin2017.TheairwarChinaislikelytoseekairsuperiorityearlyintoanyconflict,analystssay,andmayfeelithasanadvantageintheskies.FlightGlobal's2022directoryoftheworld'sairforcesshowsthePLAwithalmost1,600combataircraft,comparedtoTaiwan'sfewerthan300.ThedirectoryshowstheUSwithmorethan2,700combataircraft,butthosecovertheworldwhileChina'sareallintheregion.JUSTWATCHEDTaiwanholdsceremonyforadvancedF-16Vfighterjets(Nov.2021)ReplayMoreVideos...MUSTWATCHTaiwanholdsceremonyforadvancedF-16Vfighterjets(Nov.2021)02:11Intheairwar,ChinaalsowillhavelearnedfromRussia'sfailuresinUkraine--whereMoscowtookmonthsassemblingitsgroundforcesyetfailedtosoftenuptheterrainforthemwithabombingcampaign--andismorelikelytoemulatethe"shockandawe"bombardmentsthatprecededtheUS'invasionsofIraq."I'msurethePLAislearningfromwhatthey'reseeing,"Shugartsaid."Youcanreadopen-sourcetranslationsoftheirstrategicdocuments.TheylearnedverycarefullyfromwhatwedidinDesertStormandKosovo."ButevenintheairChinawouldfacesignificantdifficulties.Aguided-missile-armedJ-20stealthfighterjetoftheChinesePeople'sLiberationArmy(PLA)AirForceperformsatAirshowChina2018.Russia'sfailuretoquicklyseizecontroloftheskiesinUkraineinitiallydumbfoundedmanyanalysts.SomeputthefailuredowntothecheapantiaircraftmissilesWesternmilitarieshavesuppliedtoKyiv.TaiwanhasdealswiththeUnitedStatestosupplyitwithStingerantiaircraftmissilesandPatriotmissiledefensebatteries.Anditalsohasbeeninvestingheavilyinitsownmissileproductionfacilitiesoverthepastthreeyearsinaproject,whencompletedthissummer,willseeitsmissileproductioncapabilitiestriple,accordingtoaJanesreportinMarch.Ontheotherhand,ChinawouldhaveanadvantageovertheUSduetoitsclosenesstoTaiwan.ArecentwargamerunbytheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurityconcludedthatanaerialconflictbetweentheUSandChinawouldlikelyendinstalemate.CommentingontheresulttoAirForceMagazine,Lt.Gen.S.ClintonHinote,USAirForcedeputychiefofstaffforstrategy,integrationandrequirements,saidthatwhiletheUSwasusedtodominatingtheskiessomefactorsweren'tinitsfavor.ChinaissendingitsmostadvancedfighterjettopatroldisputedseasChinahad"investedinmodernaircraftandweaponstofightus,"henoted,andUSforceswouldalsofacethe"tyrannyofdistance"--mostoftheUSairpowerusedinthewargameoperatedoutofthePhilippines,about500miles(800kilometers)away.ThewargamesimulatedChineseforcesbeginningtheircampaignbytryingtotakeoutthenearestUSbasesinplaceslikeGuamandJapan.HinotelikenedthatmovetoJapan'sattackonPearlHarborinDecember1941,sayingChinawouldbemotivatedby"manyofthesamereasons.""TheattackisdesignedtogiveChineseforcesthetimetheyneedtoinvadeandpresenttheworldwithafaitaccompli,"hetoldthemagazine.Chinahasagrowingarsenalofshort-,medium-andintermediaterangeballisticmissilesthatcanreachthesefar-flungtargets.Asof2020,thePLAhadatleast425missilelauncherscapableofhittingthoseUSbases,accordingtotheChinaPowerprojectattheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies.AChinesePeople'sLiberationArmy(PLA)soldierfiresananti-tankrocketduringalive-firemilitaryexerciseinWuzhong,NingxiaHuiAutonomousRegion,Chinain2019.ThegroundwarEveninascenariowhereChinawaswillingtotaketheserisksandmanagedtogetasignificantamountoftroopsashore,itsforceswouldthenfaceanotheruphillbattle.Taiwanhasabout150,000troopsand2.5millionreservists--anditsentirenationaldefensestrategyisbasedoncounteringaChineseinvasion.LiketheircounterpartsinUkrainetheTaiwanesewouldhavetheadvantageofhometurf,knowingthegroundandbeinghighlymotivatedtodefendit.First,thePLAwouldneedtofindadecentlandingspot--ideallyclosetoboththemainlandandastrategiccitysuchasTaipeiwithnearbyportandairportfacilities.Expertshaveidentifiedjust14beachesthatwouldfitthebillandTaiwaniswellawareofwhichonesthoseare.Itsengineershavespentdecadesdiggingtunnelsandbunkerstoprotectthem.Taiwan'stroopswouldalsoberelativelyfreshcomparedtotheirChinesecounterparts,whowouldbedrainedfromthejourneyoverandwouldstillneedtopushthroughtheisland'swesternmudflatsandmountains,withonlynarrowroadstoassistthem,towardTaipei.Chinesetroopscouldbedroppedinfromtheair,butalackofparatroopersinthePLAmakesitunlikely.AnotherproblemforChinesetroopswouldbetheirlackofbattlefieldexperience.ThelasttimethePLAwasinactivecombatwasin1979,whenChinafoughtabriefborderwarwithVietnam.SoldiersofChinesePeople'sLiberationArmy(PLA)fireamortarduringalive-firemilitaryexerciseinAnhuiprovince,ChinaMay22,2021.Inthateffort,China"reallygotabloodynose,itwasnotverysuccessfuloperation,"saidBonnieGlaser,directoroftheAsiaprogramattheGermanMarshallFundoftheUnitedStates."SoChina'smilitarytodayisnotbattletested,anditcouldsuffergreatlosses,ifitindeedattackedTaiwan,"Glasersaid.Otherspointedoutthatevenbattle-testedtroopscouldstruggleagainstawell-motivateddefensiveforce--notingthattheRussianmilitarywasboggeddowninUkrainedespiteitsrecentfightingexperienceinSyriaandGeorgia.Still,aswiththeotherscenarios,itisnotonlyChineseforcesthatmightbehandicappedbyalackofexperience.Taiwan'stroopshavealsonotbeentested,anddependingonthescenario,thereareholesineventheUS'experience.AsShugartputit:"ThereisnotasingleUSnavalofficerwhohassunkanothershipincombat."WhatarethechancesChinaattacks?Glaser,theGermanMarshallFundanalyst,thinksaChineseinvasionofTaiwanisunlikely.JUSTWATCHEDHere'showTaiwanhasmadetheUS-ChinarelationshipmorecomplicatedReplayMoreVideos...MUSTWATCHHere'showTaiwanhasmadetheUS-Chinarelationshipmorecomplicated02:54"IthinkthatthePLAlacksfullconfidencethatitcanseizeandcontrolTaiwan.ThePLAitselftalksaboutsomeofthedeficienciesinitscapability,"shesaid."Andobviously,thewarinUkrainehighlightssomeofthechallengesthatChinacouldface;itiscertainlymuchhardertolaunchawar100milesacrossabodyofwaterthanitisacrosslandborders,(suchasthose)betweenRussiaandUkraine,"shesaid.ShenotedthatthestrongUkrainianresistancemaybegivingTaiwan'speoplereasontofightfortheirland."GivenhowUkrainehasreallydemonstratedaveryhighmoraleandwillingnesstodefenditsfreedoms...IthinkthatthisislikelytochangethecalculusofnotonlymilitaryleadersinChina,buthopefullyalsoof(Chineseleader)XiJinpingpersonally,"shesaid.O'Brien,theUniversityofSt.Andrewsprofessor,wroteinTheSpectatorthisyearthatanywaroverTaiwanwouldleadtodevastatinglossesonallsides,somethingthatshouldmaketheirleaderstreadcarefullybeforecommittingtroops."IftheUkrainianwarteachesusanything,itisthatwarisalmostalwaysarashchoice.Don'tunderestimateyouropponent,anddon'tassumeyoursystemswillallworkthatwell."AChineseamytanktakespartinmilitarydrillsin2018.Anyotheroption?Ofcourse,thePLAhasoptionsotherthanafull-blowninvasion.TheseincludetakingoutlyingTaiwaneseislandsorimposingaquarantineonthemainisland,RobertBlackwillandPhilipZelikowwrotelastyearinareportfortheCouncilonForeignRelations.JUSTWATCHEDResidentsofTaipeionedgeaboutChinaafterRussiainvadesUkraineReplayMoreVideos...MUSTWATCHResidentsofTaipeionedgeaboutChinaafterRussiainvadesUkraine02:52PossiblePLAtargetscouldbeTaipingIsland,Taiwan'smostfar-flungoutpostintheSouthChinaSea;thetinyPratasIsland,asmalloutpost170nauticalmiles(320kilometers)southeastofHongKong;KinmenandMatsuislands,tinyterritoriesjustafewmilesoffmainlandChina'scoast;orPenghuintheTaiwanStrait.WhileaPLAvictoryofanyofthefourisalmostassured,itcouldcomeatthecostofgalvanizingsupportforTaiwanintherestoftheworld--muchasRussia'sinvasionofUkrainehasunitedtheWestagainstit.BlackwillandZelikowsaidthequarantineoptionmightbemoreeffective."Inaquarantinescenario,theChinesegovernmentwouldeffectivelytakecontroloftheairandseabordersofTaiwan,"theywrote."TheChinesegovernmentwouldruneffectivelyaclearanceoperationoffshoreorintheairtoscreenincomingshipsandaircraft.Thescreenerscouldthenwavealongwhattheyregardedasinnocenttraffic."Anythingregardedasbelligerent,suchasUSmilitaryaidforTaiwan,couldbeblockedorconfiscatedasaviolationofChinesesovereignty,theysay.Meanwhile,ChinacouldallowtheTaiwangovernmenttofunctionasnormalexceptforforeignaffairs.ThisoptionwouldhaveanadvantageinChina'seyes:theballwouldbeintheUS'courtastowhethertouseforcetoendthequarantine.ThenitwouldbetheUSthatwouldhavetoconsiderwhethertoriskawarthatcouldcostcountlesslives.CNN'sRebeccaWrightcontributedtothisreport.