Pelosi's Taiwan Visit Ends With Chinese Military Drills - TIME

And like that, she was gone. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi departed Taiwan on Wednesday evening local time after a lightning visit that ... World Taiwan PelosiLeavesTaiwanWiththeIsland—andWorld—inaMorePrecariousPosition PelosiLeavesTaiwanWiththeIsland—andWorld—inaMorePrecariousPosition By CharlieCampbell August3,202212:02PMEDT Andlikethat,shewasgone.U.S.HouseSpeakerNancyPelosidepartedTaiwanonWednesdayeveninglocaltimeafteralightningvisitthatincludedaddressingtheisland’sparliament,visitingitsNationalHumanRightsMuseumandholdingatelevisedmeetingwithPresidentTsaiIng-wen.PackedintoherluggagewillbetheOrderofPropitiousCloudswithSpecialGrandCordon—Taiwan’shighestcivilianhonor—whoseaquamarinesashTsaidrapedovertheveteranDemocratinTaipei’spresidentialpalace,sayingit“representedtheirgratitudetoPelosiandthewishtocontinueprogressingU.S.-Taiwanrelationsthroughmorecooperation.”AsforwhatPelosileavesbehind,wecanonlywaitandwatch.AfuriousBeijing—whichconsiderstheself-rulingislanditssovereignterritoryandfiercelyopposedhertrip—hasannouncedfourdaysoflive-firedrillsandmissiletestsbeginningonThursdaythatencircleTaiwan,somelessthan10milesfromitscoast.Theunprecedenteddrillsarethelargestinrecentmemoryandwillnodoubtimpedecommercialshippingandflightstotheisland.Ontopofthat,ChinasummonedtheU.S.AmbassadorinBeijingforadressingdownandsuspendedTaiwaneseimportsofcitrusfruitandhorsemackerelaswellasexportsofsand—vitalfortheconstructionindustry—totheisland.Amassivecyber-attackthatresearcherslinkedtoChinese“hacktivists”alsobrieflydownedTaiwan’spresidentialofficewebsite. Still,Pelosiwasunapologetic.“Todaytheworldfacesachoicebetweendemocracyandautocracy,”shetoldreporters.“America’sdeterminationtopreservedemocracyhereinTaiwanandaroundtheworldremainsironclad.”HowTaiwanandChinareactedFortheislanders,thevisithasbeendivisive.OnonesideofTaiwan’slegislativebuilding,agroupsupportingPelosiheldupbannerswelcominghertothe“RepublicofTaiwan,”inanodtotheiraspirationsofformalindependence.Acrosstheway,pro-Beijingdemonstratorsheldupplacardsdenouncingthe82-year-oldasan“arsonist”meddlinginChina’sinternalaffairs.Still,it’snotablethatevenseniorfiguresintheoppositionNationalistParty—whichopposesformalindependenceandfavorsstrongertiesacrosstheStrait—includingpartychairmanEricChuandformerPresidentMaYing-jeouvoicedsupportforPelosi’svisit. SungWen-ti,aTaipei-basedscholarfortheAustralianNationalUniversity,saysthatPelosi’svisitwasbroadlywelcomedasastrongsignofU.S.supportatatimewhenthegapbetweenChina’sconventionalmilitaryabilityandTaiwancontinuestowiden.AndintermsofincurringChina’swrath,theislandershavebeenheremanytimesbefore.“TheTaiwanesearelargelyoverit,”saysSung.“They’vebeenlivingunderthesamethreatforaboutaquarter-century.It’saclearcaseofdiminishingmarginalreturns.”Still,there’snodoubtthatthevisitdoesraisethetemperature.Pelosi’svisitcamedaysafterChina’sstrongmanXiJinpingwarnedPresidentJoeBidenagainst“playingwithfire”overtheislandduringa“candid”phonecall.It’sunclearwhethertheU.S.willmountanyripostetoChina’sdrills,thoughduringtheThirdTaiwanStraitsCrisis26yearsago—promptedbyavisitbyTaiwanesePresidentLeeTeng-huitohisalmamater,CornellUniversity—theU.S.sailedanaircraftcarriergroupthroughtotheTaiwanStraitinresponsetoChinesemissilelaunches.OnTuesday,theU.S.deployedfourwarshipsincludinganaircraftcarriertowaterseastofTaiwan. ReadMore:Column:ThereAreNoBenefitstoaPelosiVisittoTaiwanValarieTan,ananalystonChineseCommunistPartyelitepoliticsfortheMercatorInstituteforChinaStudiesinBerlin,says“everymove”byBeijingsofarhasbeenstrategicallyorchestratedtopurposelypilepressureonTaipei.“Theyshouldnotjustbetakenaswarningsordismissedasaperformativeshowofstrengthbutasprecursorsofwhatistocome:anaggressiveescalationofgray-zonetacticswiththepotentialtoringfenceTaiwanandblockadeshippingroutesandcommunicationsinthefuture.”Still,therearesignsBeijingisdeterminedtosavefacewhileavoidingamajorescalation.ItdidnotbuzzPelosi’splane,assomehadfeared,andwaiteduntilshehaddepartedTaipeiforSouthKoreabeforelaunchingmilitarydrills.Themeasuredresponse—demonstratingresolveandcapability,withoutinvitingconflict—evendrewscornfromChinesenationalistsonsocialmedia.“Fordaysweshoutedaboutcountermeasures,whatkindofcountermeasureisthis?”postedoneonWeibo.Beijing’scalculationswerealsoapparentontheeconomicfront.ItdidnotblockTaiwaneseimportsoftheprocessorchipsthatarevitalnotjustforcountlessChineseproductsbutglobalindustry.Taiwanproduceshalftheworld’ssupplyofprocessorsandsalestoChinesefactoriesrose24.4%lastyearto$104.3billion. TheriskofescalationpersistsApartfromtheriskthatamilitarybuildupcouldleadtosomemiscalculationorunintendedconfrontationbetweenthenuclear-armedsuperpowers,demonstrationsofdiplomaticandmilitarysupportalsomakeU.S.backingforTaiwanseemexplicit.ButsincetheU.S.brokeoffformalrelationswithTaipeiinfavorofBeijingin1979,itsrelationshipwiththeislandhasbeengovernedby“strategicambiguity.”TheU.S.stillmaintainsunofficialties(includingadefactoembassy)withTaiwan,isobligedbyanactofCongresstoregularlyprovideTaipeiwithweaponsandstationstroopsontheisland.ButwhethertheU.S.wouldsenditsfullmilitarymighttodefendtheisland’s23millioninhabitantswasneverconfirmed.Overthelastyear,however,BidenhastwicesaidthathewoulddefendtheislandifChinaattacked.Eachtime,officialshavewalkedbackthoseassurancesandinsistedthatthestatusquo—thattheU.S.recognizesBeijing’sclaimofsovereigntyoverTaiwanwhilenotendorsingit—remainsintact.ButactionslikePelosi’svisitonlymuddiesthewatersstill.“Nobodygainsfromanyofit,”saysShelleyRigger,aprofessorofpoliticalscienceatDavidsonCollegeinNorthCarolina,andauthorofWhyTaiwanMatters.“ButthecosttoU.S.-ChinarelationsandTaiwansecurityisreallyhigh.” Ofcourse,“Strategicambiguity”isimportanttoavoidrilingBeijingbyclaimingamilitaryalliancewithwhatitperceivesasarenegadeprovince.ButitismoreimportanttoprotectU.S.interestsfromTaiwanitself,so-called“dualdeterrence.”Accordingtoa2020poll,54%ofislanderssupportformalindependence—aprospectthatBeijinghasrepeatedlyvowedwouldnecessitateattemptedreunificationbyforce.Tsai’sDemocraticProgressiveParty(DPP)hasformalindependenceasagoalinitsfoundingcharter,thoughshehaspragmaticallysidesteppedthisissuesincetakingoffice.Thatdoesn’tsitwellwithsomeDPPhardliners,however.ReadMore:Taiwan’sCivilianSoldiersWorryTheyAren’tPreparedByleavingU.S.backingforTaiwanunconfirmed,“strategicambiguity”keepstheonusonTaipeitomaintaingoodcross-Straitrelationsandlookafteritsowndefense.In2003,Taiwan’sthen-PresidentChenShui-bianenragedBeijingwithplansforareferendumthatwouldcallforChinatowithdrawscoresofballisticmissilesaimedattheisland,whichBeijingtookasamovetowardindependence.Backthen,U.S.PresidentGeorgeW.BushaimeditsrebukeatTaipei.“WeopposeanyunilateraldecisionbyeitherChinaorTaiwantochangethestatusquo,”hesaid.ButifassuredofAmericanmilitarybacking,there’slessreasonforrestraint—andsomeindependencezealotsinTaiwanwouldfavorsettlingtheissuenowbeforeChina’smilitarygrowsevenstronger.“Fromthe[Chinese]perspective,it’snotenoughtobelievethatTaiwanwillrestrainitself,”saysRigger.“TheywanttheU.S.toalsoberestrainingTaiwan.” Evenleavingasidethepossibilityofanuclearcatastrophe,directmilitaryconflictbetweentheworld’stoptwoeconomieswoulddecimateglobalsupplychainsandcostanunprecedentedamountofbloodandtreasure.“ItisnoexaggerationtosaythefutureofhumanitymaydependonapragmaticU.S.-Chinarelationship,”saysLyleGoldstein,formerlyaprofessorattheU.S.NavalWarCollegeandnowdirectorofAsiaEngagementforthedovishDefensePrioritiesthinktank.“Thisfoolishpoliticalstunt[Pelosi’svisit]…willonlyacceleratethesadprocessofsleepwalkingintoaglobalandnationalcatastropheatsomeunspecifiedtimeinthefuture.” MoreMust-ReadStoriesFromTIME LeBronJamesCouldTakePickleball—Yes,Pickleball—totheNextLevel It'sGoingtoBeaLotMoreExpensivetoHeatYourHomeThisWinter.Here'sWhatToExpect TheU.S.MightBetheSurprisingDeterminingFactorintheFutureofArmenia RapperSaucySantanaIsOpeningaDoorForHisCommunity HerearetheBiggestMomentsfromtheTIME100LeadershipForumandImpactAwardsinSingapore Column:RussiaWantstoLockUkraineBackintheSovietCellar AstheKanjuruhanTragedyShows,IndonesiaHasNotResolvedItsLong-StandingProblemofSoccerViolence Here'sEverythingNewonNetflixinOctober2022 ANewDocumentarySeriesIlluminatestheHistoryandEvolutionofQueerHorror [email protected]. 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