掌握市場週期

掌握市場週期book. Read 296 reviews from the world's largest community for readers. 被《霸榮》（Barron's）雜誌推舉為「華爾街最受青睞的宗師之一」的投資哲學家 ... Goodreadshelpsyoukeeptrackofbooksyouwanttoread. Startbymarking“掌握市場週期”asWanttoRead: WanttoRead saving… WanttoRead CurrentlyReading Read Othereditions Enlargecover WanttoRead saving… Errorratingbook.Refreshandtryagain. Ratethisbook Clearrating 1of5stars2of5stars3of5stars4of5stars5of5stars OpenPreview SeeaProblem? We’dloveyourhelp. Letusknowwhat’swrongwiththispreviewof 掌握市場週期byHowardMarks. Problem: It’sthewrongbook It’sthewrongedition Other Details(ifother):   Cancel Thanksfortellingusabouttheproblem. ReturntoBookPage Notthebookyou’relookingfor? Preview—掌握市場週期 byHowardMarks 掌握市場週期 by HowardMarks, 霍華·馬克斯, 蘇鵬元(Translator), 陳儀(Translator) 3.96  ·  Ratingdetails ·  3,318 ratings  ·  296 reviews 被《霸榮》（Barron’s）雜誌推舉為「華爾街最受青睞的宗師之一」的投資哲學家霍華‧馬克斯，其所聯合創辦的橡樹資本成立逾二十年，管理資產規模已達一千兩百億美元。

橡樹資本不僅以驚人的打敗大盤的長期績效聞名，更以霍華‧馬克斯寫給客戶的「投資備忘錄」深受各界矚目。

《華爾街日報》曾讚譽：「投資界最令人期待的盛事，除了巴菲特每年的波克夏股東大會，就是霍華‧馬克斯的備忘錄！」，連巴菲特本人也罕見背書：「只要在郵件信箱裡看到霍華‧馬克斯的投資備忘錄，我會馬上打開與閱讀！」霍華‧馬克斯濃縮歷年備忘錄及價值投資心得寫下的《投資最重要的事》，是投資者人手一冊的必讀經典。

曾預測達康泡沫與金融海嘯的霍華‧馬克斯，逆勢獲利的原因正來自他對於「週期」的不凡洞見。

《掌握市場週期》正是深度探討「週期」這件「投資最重要的事」，揭露週期的成因以及該如何應對。

投資市場會週期性 被《霸榮》（Barron’s）雜誌推舉為「華爾街最受青睞的宗師之一」的投資哲學家霍華‧馬克斯，其所聯合創辦的橡樹資本成立逾二十年，管理資產規模已達一千兩百億美元。

橡樹資本不僅以驚人的打敗大盤的長期績效聞名，更以霍華‧馬克斯寫給客戶的「投資備忘錄」深受各界矚目。

《華爾街日報》曾讚譽：「投資界最令人期待的盛事，除了巴菲特每年的波克夏股東大會，就是霍華‧馬克斯的備忘錄！」，連巴菲特本人也罕見背書：「只要在郵件信箱裡看到霍華‧馬克斯的投資備忘錄，我會馬上打開與閱讀！」霍華‧馬克斯濃縮歷年備忘錄及價值投資心得寫下的《投資最重要的事》，是投資者人手一冊的必讀經典。

曾預測達康泡沫與金融海嘯的霍華‧馬克斯，逆勢獲利的原因正來自他對於「週期」的不凡洞見。

《掌握市場週期》正是深度探討「週期」這件「投資最重要的事」，揭露週期的成因以及該如何應對。

投資市場會週期性地漲跌起伏，眾人皆知；然而何時應該抽身，又或者該堅持下去？除了運氣、藝術以及與未知的賭局之外，最好的決策方式，必是深入地理解起落循環背後的理由，並循著趨勢下判斷。

霍華‧馬克斯說：「大多數偉大投資家都對週期一般的運作方式與目前正處於哪個階段有卓越的判斷力，這樣的判斷力使得他們可以優異的針對未來進行資產組合配置。

」正因如此，他融合多年來投資備忘錄與體會，包含最深刻的洞見與智慧，寫下此書，助讀者精準掌握經濟、市場、企業週期影響，體認起落運行的模式與正處在循環的什麼位置；還指點人類的心理運作（被恐懼與貪婪蒙蔽）及對應的投資行為，經由研究過往市場的變動，理解背後的原因。

...more GetACopy AmazonOnlineStores ▾AudibleBarnes&NobleWalmarteBooksAppleBooksGooglePlayAbebooksBookDepositoryAlibrisIndigoBetterWorldBooksIndieBoundThriftbooksLibraries Paperback,352pages Published January14th2019 by商業週刊 (firstpublished2018) MoreDetails... OriginalTitle MasteringtheMarketCycle:GettingtheOddsonYourSide ISBN 9867778472 (ISBN13:9789867778475) EditionLanguage Chinese OtherEditions(11) AllEditions ...LessDetail EditDetails FriendReviews Toseewhatyourfriendsthoughtofthisbook, pleasesignup. ReaderQ&A Toaskotherreadersquestionsabout 掌握市場週期, pleasesignup. PopularAnsweredQuestions any1whohasreadthisbook? like 3yearsago Seeall2answers Goatllama nonoonenoooone…morenonoonenoooone(less) flag See1questionabout掌握市場週期… ListswithThisBook ThisbookisnotyetfeaturedonListopia. Addthisbooktoyourfavoritelist» CommunityReviews Showing1-30 Averagerating 3.96  ·  Ratingdetails  ·  3,318 ratings  ·  296 reviews AllLanguagesEnglish‎(277) Español‎(3) Norsk‎(2) Pусскийязык‎(1) Svenska‎(1) TiếngViệt‎(1) Türkçe‎(2) ไทย‎(1) 中文‎(2) Morefilters  |  Sortorder Startyourreviewof掌握市場週期Writeareview Oct20,2018 JamesWain ratedit itwasok  ·  reviewofanotheredition HavingreadTheMostImportantThingandunderlining/notingsomethingoneverypage,wasverymuchlookingforwardtothis.Unfortunatelyitisrepetitive,coversprettybasiceconomictheory,copiesandpastesoldmaterialandattheendofeverychapteryoucan’treallyrememberwhatyouhaveread.Foundmyselfbattlingtofinish.Feelslikethisbookhasbeenforcedasthegeneralconsensusisthatwe’reduearecessionsoitwouldbetopicaltowriteabouteconomiccycles.Couldprobablyhav HavingreadTheMostImportantThingandunderlining/notingsomethingoneverypage,wasverymuchlookingforwardtothis.Unfortunatelyitisrepetitive,coversprettybasiceconomictheory,copiesandpastesoldmaterialandattheendofeverychapteryoucan’treallyrememberwhatyouhaveread.Foundmyselfbattlingtofinish.Feelslikethisbookhasbeenforcedasthegeneralconsensusisthatwe’reduearecessionsoitwouldbetopicaltowriteabouteconomiccycles.Couldprobablyhavebeenanextendedmemoratherthanawholebook.Despitethiswillprobablystillreadhisnextbook. ...more flag 31likes · Like  · seereview Viewall7comments Oct13,2018 ZhouFang ratedit likedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition EversinceIreadTheMostImportantThing,I'vebeenaneagerreaderofeverythingHowardMarkshaswritten.Inover20yearsofrunningOaktree,Markshaswrittenhundredsofpagesofmemos,somuchofthebook(andmanyofhisrecentmemos)arecallbacks/quotesfromthesememoshewroteinthepast.It'squiteamazingtoseehowsharpofasensehehasinunderstandingwhereweareinthecycle.Thebookisquiterepetitive,butafewkeyconceptsarehammeredclear:1.Historydoesn'trepeat EversinceIreadTheMostImportantThing,I'vebeenaneagerreaderofeverythingHowardMarkshaswritten.Inover20yearsofrunningOaktree,Markshaswrittenhundredsofpagesofmemos,somuchofthebook(andmanyofhisrecentmemos)arecallbacks/quotesfromthesememoshewroteinthepast.It'squiteamazingtoseehowsharpofasensehehasinunderstandingwhereweareinthecycle.Thebookisquiterepetitive,butafewkeyconceptsarehammeredclear:1.Historydoesn'trepeatbutitdoesrhyme2.Whatthewisemandoesinthebeginningthefooldoesintheend3.Eachstageofthecyclenotonlyprecedesbutcausesthenextstageinthecycle4.Understandingwherewearecansignificantlyimproveouroddsofsuccessevenifwecan'tpredictwherewearegoing5.Thelessprudencewithwhichothersconducttheiraffairs,themoreprudencewithwhichweshouldconductourownaffairs6.Itisincrediblydifficulttogoagainstthecrowd7.Capitulationnotonlyhappensinbearmarketsbutalsoinbullmarkets(suchaswheninvestorslikeStanDruckenmillerboughtintothestockmarketbubbleinthelate'90sbecausetheyfelttheycouldn'tmissoutonmakingmoneyontheupswingeventhoughitwasclearlyabubble) ...more flag 24likes · Like  · seereview Nov13,2020 OtisChandler ratedit likedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Shelves: finance, didntfinish Veryinterestingbooktoreadduringadowncycle.Firstfewchaptersgiveyouthebulkofhispoints,getsalittlerepetitiveattheend. flag 12likes · Like  · seereview View1comment Dec15,2018 InvestingByTheBooks.com ratedit reallylikedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Theholygrailofinvestingismarkettiminganditsrealizationisaboutaselusive.Thisisaguideonhowtomasterthefinancialmarketcycle,whichissomethinginawayrelatedtomarkettiming,butstillvery,very,verydifferent.Themaster(thatwordagain…)corporatebondinvestorandinvestmentwriterHowardMarksatOaktreeCapitalManagementisamongthosewhomIadmiremostinfinancialmarketsandhisfirstbookTheMostImportantThingranksamongmytopfivealltimeinvestment Theholygrailofinvestingismarkettiminganditsrealizationisaboutaselusive.Thisisaguideonhowtomasterthefinancialmarketcycle,whichissomethinginawayrelatedtomarkettiming,butstillvery,very,verydifferent.Themaster(thatwordagain…)corporatebondinvestorandinvestmentwriterHowardMarksatOaktreeCapitalManagementisamongthosewhomIadmiremostinfinancialmarketsandhisfirstbookTheMostImportantThingranksamongmytopfivealltimeinvestmentbooks.InawaythisisaslightproblemwhenitcomestoMasteringtheMarketCycle.Aclassicaladvicetocompaniesreportingtheirfinancialsisto“under-promiseandover-deliver”–thethingisthatMarks’firstbookdrivesupexpectationsforthisonetoalevelitcannotfullyliveupto.Butit’sstillareallyinspiringbookonanimportantandunder-discussedareathatIwillputtogooduseimmediately.Afundamentalcornerstonefortheauthoristhatfinancialmarketscannotbepredictedwithanypracticallyusableprecisionintheshorttomediumterm.Thisdoesn’tmeanthatallmarketoutcomesareequallyprobableatalltimes.Bylookingtocurrentconditionsandbythisforminganopiniononwhereweareinthemarketcycleaninvestor,accordingtoMarks,cantilthisportfoliototakeadvantageofwhatismorelikelytohappenintheyearsahead.It’sbothaboutwhatonethinkswillhappendependingonwhereoneisandabouttheprobabilityofthishappeningcomparedtootherscenarios.Ifaninvestorisgoodatthisgameitshouldpayoffinthelongrunandhetiltstheoddsforsuccessinhisfavor.Prepare,don’tpredict.Ithinkheistotallyspot-oninthisrespect.Anotherkeybasisinmasteringthecycleistounderstandthatthingsdon’tjusthappenonethingafteranotherin–unfortunatelyirregular–cyclicalpatterns.Whathappensinonestageofamarketcycleisinsteadcausingittomoveontothenextstage.Cyclesarechainsofcause-and-effectrelationships.Afterapairofintroductorychaptersthemainpartofthebookisdevotedtodescribingalargesetofinterrelatedandparallelsuchcycles:theeconomiccycle,theprofitcycle,theriskattitudecycle,thecreditcycleandsoon.Underlyingalltheseisthecyclicalpatternsininvestorpsychology–atopicclearlynearesttoMarks’heart.ToalargeextentMarksreadsvariouspsychologicalmarkersandpositionshimselfinthecyclebythese.Nextcomesonechapterthattriestoassemblealltheabovecycleinputsintothefullmosaicofthemarketcycle.Thebookfinisheswithafewconcludingmorepracticalchaptersandaneedlesslycut-and-pastetypeofsummary.Itishonestlyaluxurytohave50yearsofhardwonexperiencecondensedinsuchagraspableformat.Marksisasimplysuperbwriter.MuchlikeWarrenBuffetthelanguagecanbedeceptivelysimple,causingfairlycomplexissuestosoundlikechild’splay.Makenomistake–thisisinvestmentthinkingonthehighestlevel.Still,comparedtothehighstandardssetbytheauthor’sinvestmentletterssomepassagesofthebookareabitrepetitivewiththeirlongandrecurringchainsofcause-and-effectsandsomenewlywrittenchaptersthatdon’tbuildonpreviousinvestmentletters,butarerequiredtomakeancoherentstory,areperhapsslightlylessinspiredthantheothers.ThereareclearlyotherswhohavemadecontributionstotheunderstandingofmarketcyclessuchasHymanMinsky,variousAustrianeconomists,thebooksfromMarathonAssetManagededitedbyEdwardChancellorplusmanyothers.However,sinceMarksissofocusedonreadingnon-fundamentalandnon-economicsignpostsIthinkthemostcomplementarybookmightbeBigDebtCrisisbythemoreBorg-ishRayDaliowithhis“economicmachine”-concept,whoobviouslymostlyzerosinonthecentralbankdominatedcycleofmonetarypolicy.Whenitcomestobooksonmarketcyclesthisisamustread–butitcouldhavebeenevenbetter.MatsLarsson,December15,2018 ...more flag 7likes · Like  · seereview Mar09,2019 FredForbes ratedit itwasok  ·  reviewofanotheredition AtfirstIhadtoquestionwhetherIwasbeingfairinratingthisbookaslowasIhave.I'vebeeninthefinancialservicesfieldfor35+yearsandfoundthebooksimplisticanda"firmgraspoftheobvious".DecidedIhadnotbeenunfairsincethebookreallyappearstobea"cutandpaste"jobfromhispriorbook,memostoclientsandnewsletters,thecontentisextremelyrepetitiveandlackseconomicandquantitativesubstance.Youknowthatdepthismissingwhenthegraphsarearemeantto AtfirstIhadtoquestionwhetherIwasbeingfairinratingthisbookaslowasIhave.I'vebeeninthefinancialservicesfieldfor35+yearsandfoundthebooksimplisticanda"firmgraspoftheobvious".DecidedIhadnotbeenunfairsincethebookreallyappearstobea"cutandpaste"jobfromhispriorbook,memostoclientsandnewsletters,thecontentisextremelyrepetitiveandlackseconomicandquantitativesubstance.Youknowthatdepthismissingwhenthegraphsarearemeanttobe"conceptual"withnovaluesalongtheaxisandveryfewnumericalvaluesaregivenintheexamples.Myapproachhasalwaysstressedadequateliquidityandreserves,theuseoffairlyconservative,establishedhighqualityinvestmentvehicles,anddiversificationamongequities(includingsmall,midandlargecap,internationalanddomestic,etc.)fixedincomeandcashdependingonthetimehorizon,financialobjectivesandrisktolerance.Periodicre-balancingisrequiredandthemixischangedwhenobjectivesandcircumstanceschange.ThishasservedmewellandwhilefolkslikeMarkscanbeatthemselvesuptryingtofigureoutwhereweareinaparticularcycleorsubcycletheminusculedifferentialinearningsovertimehardlyseemsworththetimeorexpense.Ididnoticeoneverymeaningfulcommentthathemadeashewaspattinghimselfonthebackforinvestingatthebottomofthefinancialcrunchin2008.Henotes"...thegoodoutcomewegotwasn'ttheonlyoutcomethatcouldhavebeenrealized.I'mconvincedthatifHankPaulson,TimGeithnerandBenBernankehadn'tactedwhentheydid,oriftheyhadacteddifferently,oriftheiractionshadn'tbeenassuccessfulastheywere,afinancialmeltdownandreplayoftheGreatDepressioncouldhaveoccurred."Trulysometimesyoucanwinthebattleandlosethewar.So,forthosethatneedtoberemindedthat,asMarkTwainsupposedlysaid"Historydoesnotrepeatitselfbutitdoesrhyme.",thiscanbeavaluableresource. ...more flag 5likes · Like  · seereview View1comment Nov18,2018 DimitriosPapafotis ratedit likedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Didnotdeliver....Tobehonest,Ihavereadoversixtyinvestmentrelatedbooksandmystandardsarehigh,especiallyfrom$30books.Thebookwasratherphilosophicalconcerningmarketcycleswithnoactualinfomationonhowtospotpossibleextremes.Ididnotlikethebraggingonhowgoodinvestorthewriterwas,Iwasoutragedwhenhesaidthestorywhenduringthefinancialcrisisheproposedtohisclientstoaveragedownthreetimestheirlosingpositionsjustbecauseitwastheoreticall Didnotdeliver....Tobehonest,Ihavereadoversixtyinvestmentrelatedbooksandmystandardsarehigh,especiallyfrom$30books.Thebookwasratherphilosophicalconcerningmarketcycleswithnoactualinfomationonhowtospotpossibleextremes.Ididnotlikethebraggingonhowgoodinvestorthewriterwas,Iwasoutragedwhenhesaidthestorywhenduringthefinancialcrisisheproposedtohisclientstoaveragedownthreetimestheirlosingpositionsjustbecauseitwastheoreticallysolideconomicwise...Tosumup,itisagoodreadifthisisyourfirstbookoncycles,ifnot,skipitforsomethingelse ...more flag 4likes · Like  · seereview View1comment Jan10,2021 MilindPawar ratedit reallylikedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Premiseissimple-Financialmarketsarecyclical,alwayshavebeenandalwayswillbe.Theauthorcomparesthemtoapendulum!Investor'sabilitytogeneratesuperiorreturnsdoesnotdependonpredictingthefuture,butunderstandingthepresentbetterthanthemost.Theauthorsuggeststwocriteriaforthis--Identifyingtheintrinsicvalueofunderlyingassets(Quantitative)-Understandingtheinvestorpsychology(Qualitative)Thisbookdoubleclicksononeofthechaptersfromtheauthor's Premiseissimple-Financialmarketsarecyclical,alwayshavebeenandalwayswillbe.Theauthorcomparesthemtoapendulum!Investor'sabilitytogeneratesuperiorreturnsdoesnotdependonpredictingthefuture,butunderstandingthepresentbetterthanthemost.Theauthorsuggeststwocriteriaforthis--Identifyingtheintrinsicvalueofunderlyingassets(Quantitative)-Understandingtheinvestorpsychology(Qualitative)Thisbookdoubleclicksononeofthechaptersfromtheauthor's1stbook-TheMostImportantThing(2011)butgetsrepetitiveattimeswhileexplainingcomplexconcepts. ...more flag 4likes · Like  · seereview Mar17,2019 AkshaySoni ratedit reallylikedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Goodinsightsonbehaviouralaspectsofinvesting.Thekeytakeawayisthatnobodycanreallypredictmarketcyclesandmacroeconomicvariablesbuttheartistopracticeandlearnvolatilityininvestorbehaviourandtheirchangingattitudetowardsriskinvariouscircumstances.Theartofbalancingemotionalextremesdefinesasuccessfulinvestor. flag 4likes · Like  · seereview View1comment Nov20,2018 MM ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition Thisreviewhasbeenhiddenbecauseitcontainsspoilers.Toviewit, clickhere. Mr.Marksacknowledgesthatmacroforecastingisverydifficultbutthatallhecandoistojudgeatwhichpointyouareinthecycle.Hecannevercallmarkettopsandbottomsorpredicthowfarpriceswillfluctuate.Buthebelievesthathecanunderstandandempiricallycheckfluctuationsininvestors’attitudestowardrisk.Investorstendtoputmoneyintothemarketattops,wheneveryoneisoptimistic,andtakethemoneyoutatbottoms,whenpaniciswidespreadandaspartofanherdmenta Mr.Marksacknowledgesthatmacroforecastingisverydifficultbutthatallhecandoistojudgeatwhichpointyouareinthecycle.Hecannevercallmarkettopsandbottomsorpredicthowfarpriceswillfluctuate.Buthebelievesthathecanunderstandandempiricallycheckfluctuationsininvestors’attitudestowardrisk.Investorstendtoputmoneyintothemarketattops,wheneveryoneisoptimistic,andtakethemoneyoutatbottoms,whenpaniciswidespreadandaspartofanherdmentality.Thekeytoinvestmentsuccessistodotheoppositeandkeepone’semotions—aggressivenessanddefensiveness—inbalance.Mr.Marks’srecipeforsuccessismuchlikethatofMr.Buffett,whohassaidthatinvestorsshouldbe“fearfulwhenothersaregreedyandgreedywhenothersarefearful.”Inhislongestchapter,Mr.Marksexplainshowhewasabletoprofitfromtheeventsleadinguptothe2008marketmeltdown.HisanalysiscloselyparallelsthetheoriesofthelateeconomistHymanMinsky.Goodtimesleadtooverlyoptimisticforecastsandalooseningofcreditstandards.Excessivedebtleadstoawaveofdefaultsatthefirstsignsofeconomicturmoilandultimatelytoamarketmeltdown.TheMinskytheoryisthatstabilityitselfbreedsbehaviorthatleadstoinstability.Asheputit:“Thelongerthingsarestable,themoreunstabletheywillbewhenthecrisishits.”HowardMarksalsomakesaverygoodpointthatinvestorsshouldnottrytoonlybuyatthebottom,asthebottomisverydifficulttospot.Mr.Marksshowshowgoodtimesfrom2005to2008causedinvestorstobecomesooptimisticthattheyjettisonedcautionandsettledforskimpypremiumsonriskyinvestments.“Thegreatestsourceofinvestmentrisk,”hesays,“isthebeliefthatthereisnorisk.”Whenpricesstarttodecline,investorspanicandriskaversiongoesfrominadequatetoexcessive.Thustherewardforbearingriskisgreatestjustwhenpeoplerefusetobearit.“Thefluctuation—orinconstancy—inattitudestowardrisk,”Mr.Markswrites,is“thecauseorexacerbator”ofcycles.Atthebottomofthemarketlendersrefusetooffercrediteventocredit-worthyborrowers.Thevolatilityinthecreditmarketsisequallyevidentinthereal-estateandstockmarkets.Thedot-combubbleofthelate1990s,whenhigh-techstockssoldatunprecedentedtriple-digitearningsmultiples,andthereal-estatebubbleoftheearly2000sbearwitnesstosimilarpatternsofeuphoriaanddepression.MasteringtheMarketCycle”isnotaperfectbook.Itisoverlongandtendstoberepetitious.Butitiswise.Acarefulreadingcanmakeusbetterinvestorsandprotectusfromthealltoofrequenterrorsthatruininvestmentresults. ...more flag 3likes · Like  · seereview Jul07,2021 ThomasEdmund ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition AnyonefollowingmyreviewsatthemomentwillnoticeI'monabitofaninvestingdeepdive.MasteringtheMarketCycleisinmyopinioninvaluable-butdefinitelyanintermediatelevelbook,besttoreadaftergettingsomeofthebasicsdownabouteconomicsandinvesting.Thepremiseofthebookisbasicallymakingsenseoftheshortandlongtermtrendsofmarketcycles,acknowledgingthatwhileyoucan'tpredictthefutureortimethemarketperfectly,youcanadequatelyprepareandundersta AnyonefollowingmyreviewsatthemomentwillnoticeI'monabitofaninvestingdeepdive.MasteringtheMarketCycleisinmyopinioninvaluable-butdefinitelyanintermediatelevelbook,besttoreadaftergettingsomeofthebasicsdownabouteconomicsandinvesting.Thepremiseofthebookisbasicallymakingsenseoftheshortandlongtermtrendsofmarketcycles,acknowledgingthatwhileyoucan'tpredictthefutureortimethemarketperfectly,youcanadequatelyprepareandunderstandtheprocesstobetteryourself.Whilethebookdoesn'tcontactdirectfinancialadviseperse,theknowledgeimpartedismorethanvaluableandhelpsexplainsomeofthemajorplayers(e.g.WarrenBuffett's)strategiesonthemarket. ...more flag 2likes · Like  · seereview Jun20,2020 Jen ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition IamabigfanofHowardMarks'memosandechowhatWarrenBuffetsaid:“WhenIseememosfromHowardMarksinmymail,they’rethefirstthingIopenandread.Ialwayslearnsomething.”Inthisbook,Howardsynthesizedhisthoughtstoanalyzemarketcycles.Whataremarketcyclesandwhyaretheyoccurring?Marketcyclesneverstopoccurringasourmarketisnotcompletelyefficient.Economieswillwaxandwaneasconsumersspendmoreorless,respondingemotionallytoeconomicfactorsorexo IamabigfanofHowardMarks'memosandechowhatWarrenBuffetsaid:“WhenIseememosfromHowardMarksinmymail,they’rethefirstthingIopenandread.Ialwayslearnsomething.”Inthisbook,Howardsynthesizedhisthoughtstoanalyzemarketcycles.Whataremarketcyclesandwhyaretheyoccurring?Marketcyclesneverstopoccurringasourmarketisnotcompletelyefficient.Economieswillwaxandwaneasconsumersspendmoreorless,respondingemotionallytoeconomicfactorsorexogenousevents,geopoliticalornaturallyoccurring.Companieswillanticipatearosyfutureduringtheupcycleandthusover-expandfacilitiesandinventories;thesewillbecomeburdensomewhentheeconomyturnsdown.Providersofcapitalwillbetoogenerouswhentheeconomy'sdoingwell,abettingover-expansionwithcheapmoney,andthentheywillpullthereinstootightwhenthingsceasetolookasgood.Investorswillovervaluecompanieswhentheyaredoingwellandundervaluewhenthingsgetdifficult.Marketcyclesoccurunderbothupswingsanddownswings.Inthebook,Howardalsodivedintocreditcycleandrealestatecycle.Overthecycles,marketsfluctuatebetweengreedandfearasinvestorsswingbetweenoptimismandpessimismandtheirmoodswingbetweeneuphoriaanddepression.Overthisfluctuation,whatthewisemandoesinthebeginning,thefooldoesintheend.Despitethesignificantuncertaintiesofmarketcyclesalongwithmarketfluctuations,ourroleasaninvestoristodealwithpricesofassets,assessingwheretheystandtodayandmakingjudgmentsregardinghowtheywillchangeinthefuture.Pricesareaffectedprimarilybydevelopmentsintwoareas:fundamentals(i.e.,earningsandcashflows)andpsychology.Sohowdowebeatthemarket?HerearethreeofHoward'ssecretesauces:Winninginvestmentphilosophycanbecreatedthroughacombinationofthefollowing:1.atechnicaleducationinaccounting,finance,andeconomics2.aviewonhowmarketswork3.continuingtoread4.exchangingideaswithfellowinvestors5.experienceThreeingredientstosuccessincludeaggressiveness,timingandskill.Ifyouhaveenoughaggressivenessattherighttime,youdon'tneedthatmuchskill.Excessiverisktolerancecontributestothecreationofdanger,andtheswingtoexcessiveriskaversiondepressesmarkets,creatingsomeofthegreatestbuyingopportunity!IreallyenjoyHoward'swritingstyleandreasoning.(Ofcourse-HowardisaBoothietoo!)Howardevenelevatedthediscussiontoamoreuniversalstatement:successisn'talwaysgood.Successcanchangepeople,andusuallynotforthebetter.Successmakespeoplethinktheyaresmart.That'sfineasfarasitgoes,buttherecanalsobenegativeramifications.Successalsotendstomakepeoplericher,andthatleadtoareductioninthelevelofmotivation.Wealwaysneedtobalancebetweenhumilityandconfidence.Atthisunusualmomentofhistoryandmarket,thisbookserveslikeanalerttohelpusactrationally. ...more flag 2likes · Like  · seereview Dec28,2018 VanessaPrincessa ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition Shelves: best-book-ever, blinked-and-gone-blinkist IreadthisbookthankstoBlinkist:Thekeymessageintheseblinks:Thecyclesofmarkets,economiesandindividualcompaniesfollowaparticularpattern:inthelongterm,theytendtogrow,followingwhat’scalledaseculartrend.Intheshortterm,however,theyfluctuateagreatdeal,oscillatingaroundthisseculartrend.Thesuperiorinvestorissomeonewhopaysattentiontothesecycles,adjustinghisstanceandpositioninghisportfoliosoastobenefitfromthem.Actionableadvice:Read, IreadthisbookthankstoBlinkist:Thekeymessageintheseblinks:Thecyclesofmarkets,economiesandindividualcompaniesfollowaparticularpattern:inthelongterm,theytendtogrow,followingwhat’scalledaseculartrend.Intheshortterm,however,theyfluctuateagreatdeal,oscillatingaroundthisseculartrend.Thesuperiorinvestorissomeonewhopaysattentiontothesecycles,adjustinghisstanceandpositioninghisportfoliosoastobenefitfromthem.Actionableadvice:Read,read,read!Manypeopleinthefinancialworldremaininasortofbubble.Theypayattentiononlytothemediaandfinancialreports,rarelyreadingbooksthatfalloutsidetheirfield.Youcanlearnalotaboutcyclesbyreadinghistorybooks–justconsiderthemassivecyclethattheRomanEmpirewentthrough–orevenbyreadingnovels.Sodon’tlimityourselftoaparticulargenre,andkeepaneyeoutforapplicablelessons!Whattoreadnext:TheMostImportantThing,byHowardMarksIfyoufoundtheseinsightsonmarketcyclesfromveteraninvestorHowardMarksintriguing,thenyoumightbeinterestedintheblinkstohisfirstbook,TheMostImportantThing.Theylayouttheinvestmentphilosophyhedevelopedduringhis40yearsinthemarket.Asyounowknow,partofthisphilosophyinvolvesresistingmarkettrendsinordertoincreasepotentialgainsandlowerrisk.However,theseblinkstakeabroaderview,encouragingaspiringandestablishedinvestorstopayattentiontoarangeoffactorsintheinvestmentenvironment.Soifyou’rereadytotakeyourmarketsavvytothenextlevel,headovertotheblinkstoTheMostImportantThing. ...more flag 2likes · Like  · seereview Jun29,2018 Justin ratedit reallylikedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Ireceivedthisbook,forfree,inexchangeforanhonestreview.Thisbookhasanimportantmessageandonethatisrarelystated.ThebookdoesandexcellentjobincommunicatingitandIthinkithasbeenthoroughlydrilledintomyhead.Thatbeingsaid,IalreadyagreedwithhimpriortoreadingthisbookasIimaginewillmostcontrarianmindedinvestors.AssuchIdidn'tgetthatmuchoutofthisbook.Iwashopingformorequantitativedetailsonhowtodetectcycles.Forexample,Iwasho Ireceivedthisbook,forfree,inexchangeforanhonestreview.Thisbookhasanimportantmessageandonethatisrarelystated.ThebookdoesandexcellentjobincommunicatingitandIthinkithasbeenthoroughlydrilledintomyhead.Thatbeingsaid,IalreadyagreedwithhimpriortoreadingthisbookasIimaginewillmostcontrarianmindedinvestors.AssuchIdidn'tgetthatmuchoutofthisbook.Iwashopingformorequantitativedetailsonhowtodetectcycles.Forexample,IwashopingthatthingslikeMarketCaptoGDPwouldbebroughtupandexplained(asIdon'tgetthemasmuchasI'dlike).Therewereplentyofdetailsbuttheyfeltsubjective.Thebookwasalsobothrepetitiveandpoorlyedited.ThelatterishopefullyforgivableasIreadanadvancedcopy.Ijusthopemostoftherepeatedtext(seeminglycutandpastefromothersectionsofthebook)getseditedout.AllinallanecessarybookfortheaverageinvestorandtheoneI'dprobablyrecommendtofriends/family.Ontheotherhand,ifyouhavepaidattention/readuponinvestmentI'dhopeyouknewhispointalready(actuallyIhopeyounevergetitasthisismyonechancetomakemoneyinvesting). ...more flag 2likes · Like  · seereview Oct26,2019 PranitBauva ratedit reallylikedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Shelves: economics, psychology, finance Agreatbooktoread.Explainedusefulthingsinveryeasytounderstandway.Ithinkthisbookkindofgivesafalsesenseofconfidencethatonecanreliablyknowhowtopositionthemselvesforwhat'sgoingtocomenext,butthewayofthinkingitencouragesisoutstanding&terrific.Whilethemethodofknowingandunderstandingmarketcycleseemstoworkasdescribed,Irarelythinkmeremortalswhodon'tgetthefirstlookatthedealshappeninginthemarketplacewillhaveenoughedgetom Agreatbooktoread.Explainedusefulthingsinveryeasytounderstandway.Ithinkthisbookkindofgivesafalsesenseofconfidencethatonecanreliablyknowhowtopositionthemselvesforwhat'sgoingtocomenext,butthewayofthinkingitencouragesisoutstanding&terrific.Whilethemethodofknowingandunderstandingmarketcycleseemstoworkasdescribed,Irarelythinkmeremortalswhodon'tgetthefirstlookatthedealshappeninginthemarketplacewillhaveenoughedgetomakeareliablebetastowhat'scomingahead.Ashehassaidthatthemarketsbehaveaccordingtotheinvestorpsychologyandthusthemorepeople'sdealsyouseeinthemarket,thebetterinformationyougainbyseeingthetermsofthenotesthatarebeingissued.Thisbookisgoodandusefulafteryouareafull-timepractitionerandmanagemoreassetsthanjustyourpersonalportfolio. ...more flag 2likes · Like  · seereview May26,2019 CyrinCyriac ratedit reallylikedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Upsarefollowedbydownsistheessenceofthisbook,“forthatwhichamanwishes,forthathewillbelieve”isanamazingquotebyCharlieMungerlookingintohumannature.Sincethemarketsarebasedonhumanemotions,understandingthetendenciesthatleadtobadinvestingisveryimportant.Thisbookdelvesdeepontomarketcyclesanditsimportanceinmakingorbreakingportfolios.Chapterssuchasthenatureofcycles,therealestatecycleandcyclepositioningareveryinteresting. flag 3likes · Like  · seereview Feb13,2020 SaschaRankin ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition ThemostfascinatingaspectofconsideringMarks'takeonmarketcyclesishowinevitabletheyare.Ithinkhedoesawonderfuljobinexplainingthecausalrelationshipsbetweenelementsofthecycle--bothfromapsychologicalandaneconomicperspective.Ithinkthemostinterestingtakeawayisthatwhilstcyclesmaybeinevitablebytheirnaturetheyareextremelydifficulttopredictandthustakeadvantageof.I,asmostpeopleare,findmyselfbesetbyhindsightbias.HowdidInotseet ThemostfascinatingaspectofconsideringMarks'takeonmarketcyclesishowinevitabletheyare.Ithinkhedoesawonderfuljobinexplainingthecausalrelationshipsbetweenelementsofthecycle--bothfromapsychologicalandaneconomicperspective.Ithinkthemostinterestingtakeawayisthatwhilstcyclesmaybeinevitablebytheirnaturetheyareextremelydifficulttopredictandthustakeadvantageof.I,asmostpeopleare,findmyselfbesetbyhindsightbias.HowdidInotseetheGFCracingtowardsuslikeafreighttrain,thecollapseofbitcoinfromits2017highswasacertainty.Ofcourse,eachoneofthesefollowsthesamepatternsofeuphoriaandrisk-toleranceoutlinedinthebook.SohavingdeconstructedthesefinancialcyclessoexpertlyIturnmymindtothetoday....andIthink...andthink...andthink...yet,Ican'tseeit.Surelynoonecouldbefooledbycryptocrazesosoonagain,yessharemarketsareatanalltimehigh,butit'snotasifinvestorsarebuyingtechstocksatinfinitep/eratios.Ioftenhaveasensethatthepastheldalltheopportunities,theobviousbooms,andpredictablecrashes.But,ofcourse,asanyonewhohasreadthebookorknowsanythingaboutpsychologyoreconomicsthisisnottrue.WhilstImaybeblindtothecurrentcycle,I'msureIwilllookbackinfutureyearsandwonderhowwecouldhavenotseenXcoming,asYwasclearforalltosee.AsMarks'elucidatesthroughthequotesofGalbraithfinancehasnothingifnotanextremebrevityofmemory.IcancertainlysaythatthroughreadingthisbrilliantbookIhaveattheveryleastmadestridestolengthenmyownfinancialmemoryandsharpenmyfinancialscepticismthenexttimesomeoneuttersthefourworstwordsintheworld,"thistimeit'sdifferent." ...more flag 1like · Like  · seereview Jan17,2020 KyleReagan ratedit reallylikedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Asthetitleimplies,thecontentofthisbookisn’tveryexciting,buttheunderlyingprinciplesthatMarksdiscussesareworththeread.ThebookiseasytoreadandisacomprehensivediscussiononthestrategiesthatMarksemploysatOaktreeCapital—leadingtotheirstoriedsuccess.ItgavemeanewviewtoseemarketsthroughandIfullyintendtotakeMarks’approachintomyowninvestmentdecisions. flag 1like · Like  · seereview Viewall4comments Mar01,2021 Suleman ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition Thisbookisamustread.Easytounderstand,nottechnicalandveryinsightful.Thereissomerepetitionbutonlytosolidifythemainideawhichisthatmarketswillcontinuetocycleandifueverthinkthatwilleverchangethenuareabsolutelywrong!Knowingwhereuareinthecycleisthekeytoleveragingopportunitiesthatwillhappenonly4-5Timesinurlifespan.Otherwiseuarejustbetteroffstayinginthemarketforeverandnotbotheringwithwatchingit. flag 1like · Like  · seereview Jul01,2021 tlass ratedit likedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition HMisaninsightfulpractitionerofmarketsanduncertainty.Hismarketperformancespeaksforitselfandheisoftendescribedas'legendary'onthemedia.However,Ifindhisbookmuchunderwhelming.Itsshortcomingsaremostlyinrigorandexample.Thoughrepetitiveandfullofclichésattimes,Icametoappreciatethat.Aplusforthebookarethesporadicmentionsofothericonicworksandauthorsonthesubject. HMisaninsightfulpractitionerofmarketsanduncertainty.Hismarketperformancespeaksforitselfandheisoftendescribedas'legendary'onthemedia.However,Ifindhisbookmuchunderwhelming.Itsshortcomingsaremostlyinrigorandexample.Thoughrepetitiveandfullofclichésattimes,Icametoappreciatethat.Aplusforthebookarethesporadicmentionsofothericonicworksandauthorsonthesubject. ...more flag 1like · Like  · seereview Jan04,2021 JoshLoschen ratedit likedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Iwasprettyunderwhelmedbythisbook.Somuchofitcomesdowntotheconceptthatthereisabusinesscycleandthebesttimetobuyinvestisnotatthetopofthecycle.Thatprettymuchsumsupthemajorityofthisbook'scontent.Thatideagetsrestateddozensofdifferentwaysbutit'sallthesamebasicidea. Iwasprettyunderwhelmedbythisbook.Somuchofitcomesdowntotheconceptthatthereisabusinesscycleandthebesttimetobuyinvestisnotatthetopofthecycle.Thatprettymuchsumsupthemajorityofthisbook'scontent.Thatideagetsrestateddozensofdifferentwaysbutit'sallthesamebasicidea. ...more flag 1like · Like  · seereview Apr11,2021 AaronZhang ratedit itwasok  ·  reviewofanotheredition 2.5/5.IusuallylovereadingbooksandmemosfromHowardMarks,butIthinkthebooklargelymissedthemark.Ihad2majorissueswiththebook:(1)Ididn'tlikethebalancebetweenlengthandproperlyprovingapoint-thebookleanedfartowardstheformerandwasverywordyattimes.(2)ThebookspendsalotoftimecoveringbasicsthatIfeelpeoplewithsomeknowledgeofecon/businesscouldskip.Thatsaid,thelastchapterisagreatsummaryandIenjoyedChapters8,12,13,14,and15 2.5/5.IusuallylovereadingbooksandmemosfromHowardMarks,butIthinkthebooklargelymissedthemark.Ihad2majorissueswiththebook:(1)Ididn'tlikethebalancebetweenlengthandproperlyprovingapoint-thebookleanedfartowardstheformerandwasverywordyattimes.(2)ThebookspendsalotoftimecoveringbasicsthatIfeelpeoplewithsomeknowledgeofecon/businesscouldskip.Thatsaid,thelastchapterisagreatsummaryandIenjoyedChapters8,12,13,14,and15. ...more flag 1like · Like  · seereview Jun19,2021 KairKäsper ratedit reallylikedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Shelves: money, human-psychology Abitrepetitive,buthammershomethemostimportantpointsfromTheMostImportantThing:UncommonSensefortheThoughtfulInvestor. Abitrepetitive,buthammershomethemostimportantpointsfromTheMostImportantThing:UncommonSensefortheThoughtfulInvestor. ...more flag 1like · Like  · seereview Dec27,2019 Saeed ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition Shelves: road-to-wealth, favorites Greatwisdom,withoutdoubt.OhMasteryou'reamazing.YouHoward.ILOVEYOU.Howcananybodywritethese2superamazingbooksoninvesting!ThankyouHoward.YouareTheMostImportantThinginmylife. Greatwisdom,withoutdoubt.OhMasteryou'reamazing.YouHoward.ILOVEYOU.Howcananybodywritethese2superamazingbooksoninvesting!ThankyouHoward.YouareTheMostImportantThinginmylife. ...more flag 1like · Like  · seereview Oct13,2019 AndresKull ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition Must-readforeveryinvestor. flag 1like · Like  · seereview Dec30,2018 GunjanBothra ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition Wonderfulclarityofthought.MrMark'slaysdownalltheessentialqualitativefactsthatinvestorsshouldconsiderwhendecidingabouthowtoputtheircapitaltowork. Wonderfulclarityofthought.MrMark'slaysdownalltheessentialqualitativefactsthatinvestorsshouldconsiderwhendecidingabouthowtoputtheircapitaltowork. ...more flag 1like · Like  · seereview Oct30,2021 Adhiraj ratedit likedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition AssomeonewhohasreadHowardmarksMemosovertheyears,pickingupthisbookseemedlikeano-brainerinthetimeofabullmarket.Thisisangoodbookconcerningmarketcyclesbutcouldhavebeenbetter.Itdoesn’tgointothetechnicalanalysisandstaysonthefundamentalpartofequityinvesting.Theperspectivesputintothisbookarefilledwithanecdotalexperiencesoftheauthorandreferencedwithcertainimportantboomandbustcyclesthroughouthistory.Thisbookdoesagoodjobo AssomeonewhohasreadHowardmarksMemosovertheyears,pickingupthisbookseemedlikeano-brainerinthetimeofabullmarket.Thisisangoodbookconcerningmarketcyclesbutcouldhavebeenbetter.Itdoesn’tgointothetechnicalanalysisandstaysonthefundamentalpartofequityinvesting.Theperspectivesputintothisbookarefilledwithanecdotalexperiencesoftheauthorandreferencedwithcertainimportantboomandbustcyclesthroughouthistory.Thisbookdoesagoodjobofshowcasingtheroleofinvestorpsychologyinthemarkets.Itisextremelyrepetitivebutdoesgivesomegoodinsightsfromtimetotimeifonemanagestoblazethroughtherepetitiveboringportions.Fewimportantpointsfromthisbook:1. Intherealworld,thingsgenerallyfluctuatebetween“prettygood”and“notsohot.”Butintheworldofinvesting,perceptionoftenswingsfrom“flawless”to“hopeless.”2. Thegreatestsourceofinvestmentriskisthebeliefthatthereisnorisk.Widespreadrisktolerance—orahighdegreeofinvestorcomfortwithrisk—isthegreatestharbingerofsubsequentmarketdeclines.3. Governments,inadditiontocontrollinginflationareexpectedtosupportemployment,and,ofcourse,employmentdoesbetterwhentheeconomyisstronger.Socentralbanksencouragethisthroughstimulativeactionssuchasincreasingthemoneysupply,decreasinginterestrates,andinjectingliquidityintotheeconomybybuyingsecuritiesby“quantitativeeasing.”4. Thiscycleininvestors’willingnesstovaluethefutureisoneofthemostpowerfulcyclesthatexists.5. Marketsarerarelyefficient.Theyoftenmovefrombeingoversoldtobeingoverboughtandsoon.Itmoveslikeapendulum.Althoughthemidpointofitsarcbestdescribesthelocationofthependulum“onaverage,”itactuallyspendsverylittleofitstimethere.Instead,itisalmostalwaysswingingtowardorawayfromtheextremesofitsarc6. Nothingworksforever.Everystrategyincludingmomentum,value,growthhasitsupsanddowns.Theyallhaveperiodswheretheydon’tseemtoworkandfeeloutdated.7. Peoplehavefeelings,andassuchtheyaren’tboundbyinviolablelaws.They’llalwaysbringemotionsandfoiblestotheireconomicandinvestingdecisions.Asaresult,they’llbecomeeuphoricatthewrongtimeanddespondentatthewrongtime—exaggeratingtheupsidepotentialwhenthingsaregoingwellandthedownsideriskwhenthingsaregoingpoorly—andthusthey’lltaketrendstocyclicalextremes8. Ignoringcyclesandextrapolatingtrendsisoneofthemostdangerousthingsaninvestorcando.Peopleoftenactasifcompaniesthataredoingwellwilldowellforever,andinvestmentsthatareoutperformingwilloutperformforever,andviceversa.9. Whenthecreditwindowisopen,financingisplentifulandeasilyobtained,andwhenit’sclosed,financingisscarceandhardtoget.Finally,it’sessentialtoalwaysbearinmindthatthewindowcangofromwideopentoslammedshutinjustaninstant.Prosperitybringsexpandedlending,whichleadstounwiselending,whichproduceslargelosses,whichmakeslendersstoplending,whichendsprosperity,andonandon10. Realestateisatrickybusinessasrealestateprojectstakeyearstomaterialize.Andtimescanchangefrombeingbullishtobearishinthatperiod.11. Initiatingprojectsinboomtimescanbeasourceofrisk.Buyingtheminweaktimescanbeveryprofitable12. Anumberofwordsandphrasesmustbeexcludedfromtheintelligentinvestor’svocabulary.Theseinclude“never,”“always,”“forever,”“can’t,”“won’t,”“will”and“hasto.”13. Eventsandpsychologyalsoinfluencetheavailabilityofcredit,andtheavailabilityofcreditgreatlyaffectsassetprices,justasitfeedsbacktoinfluenceeventsandpsychology14. Buteveryinvestmenttrendeventuallyisoverdoneandbiduptoofar,sothatthebuyerintheendpaysupforpotentialthatisoverrated15. NiftyFiftyManiaofcertainQualitycompaniestradingathighvaluationsdidnotturnoutwellforinvestorsin1960’s.Itshowstherisksregardingbuyingrichlyvaluedstcoks.16. Themostimportantthingtonoteisthatmaximumpsychology,maximumavailabilityofcredit,maximumprice,minimumpotentialreturnandmaximumriskallarereachedatthesametime,andusuallytheseextremescoincidewiththelastparoxysmofbuying.Theseareonlysomeofthepointsfromthebookwhichresonatedwithme.Itisfilledwithquotesandinvestinglessonsfrominvestinggreats.Ontopofthat,itisaquickandeasyread.Buttheproblemwiththebookisthatit’stoorepetitiveandcouldhaveconveyeditsmessageinlessthan100pages.Readingthelastchapterinthisbookwouldgivearoundthesamevalueifonewouldhavereadthewholebook.Thebookseemsadraganddoesn’tseemtoprovidemuchvalueforthemostpart.Thepointconveyedoverthemarketpsychologyisalmostsimilarineachofthechapterwithnotmuchvariation. ...more flag 1like · Like  · seereview View2comments May06,2022 ErolCimen ratedit likedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition Somegoodstuff,likethepurposeofcentralbanksandbasiceconomics,butmostlycommonsensestuffandhardtogetthroughtbh flag 1like · Like  · seereview Dec28,2018 EmmanuelAyeni ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition Adetailedoverviewoftrends,patternsandcyclesinmarketsacrossdifferentniches. flag 1like · Like  · seereview Nov12,2018 JoelGray ratedit itwasamazing  ·  reviewofanotheredition CYCLESARESELF-CORRECTING.SUCCESSCARRIESWITHINITSELFTHESEEDSOFFAILURE,ANDFAILURETHESEEDSOFSUCCESS.ITSFROMTHEEXTREMESOFTHECYCLEOFGREEDANDFEARTHATARISETHEGREATESTINVESTMENTPROFITS.Thesuperiorinvestorstrikesanappropriatebalancebetweenfear(riskaversion,dislikeforloss,respectforuncertaintyandrandomness)andgreed(aspiration,aggressiveness,acquisitiveness).Thepresenceofthetwooffsettingforcesleadstoresponsible,wiseandeven-keeledbehaviou CYCLESARESELF-CORRECTING.SUCCESSCARRIESWITHINITSELFTHESEEDSOFFAILURE,ANDFAILURETHESEEDSOFSUCCESS.ITSFROMTHEEXTREMESOFTHECYCLEOFGREEDANDFEARTHATARISETHEGREATESTINVESTMENTPROFITS.Thesuperiorinvestorstrikesanappropriatebalancebetweenfear(riskaversion,dislikeforloss,respectforuncertaintyandrandomness)andgreed(aspiration,aggressiveness,acquisitiveness).Thepresenceofthetwooffsettingforcesleadstoresponsible,wiseandeven-keeledbehaviour.ThevastmajorityofthehighlysuperiorinvestorsIknowareunemotionalbynature.Theirunemotionalnatureisoneofthegreatcontributorstotheirsuccess.Itisnotthedataoreventsthataremovemarkets,it’stheinterpretation.Andthatfluctuateswithswingsinpsychology.Itisthemovementtowardanextremeitselfthatsuppliedtheenergyfortheswingback.Sometimespeoplefeelpositiveandexpectgoodthings,andwhenthat’sthecasetheyturngreedyandfixateonmakingmoney.Theirgreedcausesthemtocompetetomakeinvestments,andtheirbiddingcausesmarketstoriseandassetstoappreciate.ViceVersaforfear.Thecycleininvestorswillingnesstovsluethefutureisoneofthemostpowerfulcyclesthatexists.Understandingcyclesandhavingtheemotionalandfinancialwherewithalneededtolivethroughthemisanessentialingredientininvestmentsuccess.Detectingandexploitingtheextremesisreallythebestwecanhopefor.Goodcycletiming-combinedwithaneffectiveinvestmentapproachandtheinvolvementofexceptionalpeople,hasaccountedforthevastbulkofthesuccessatOaktree.Ininvestingthereisnothingthatalwaysworks,sincetheenvironmentisalwayschanging,andinvestorseffortstorespondtotheenvironmentcauseittochangefurther.Opportunitiesforinvestmentgainsimprovewhen;i)theeconomyandcompanyprofitsaremorelikelytoswingupthandown,ii)investorpsychologyissoberratherthanbuoyant,iii)investorsareconsciousofrisk.Theswingbackfromahighorlowalmostneverhaltsatthemidpoint.Thecontinuationofthemovementpastthemidpointandtowardstheoppositeextremeishighlydependable.Itsthe'otherextreme',notnecessarilythemean,thatdictatesthemovement.Themostimportantdeviationsfromthegeneraltrendareproducedlargelyfromfluctuationsinpsychology.Extrapolationsareusuallycorrectbutnotvaluable.Unconventionalforecastsofsignificantdeviationfromtrendwouldbevaluableiftheywerecorrect,butusuallytheyarenot.Centralbankershave2jobs-tolimitinflationandtosupportemployment.Delicatebalancingact.Thelessprudencewithwhichothersconducttheiraffairs,thegreatertheprudencewhichweshouldconductourownaffairs.Contrarianismisessentialforinvestmentsuccess.Superiorinvestingdoesn'tcomefrombuyinghighqualityassets,butfrombuyingwhenthedealisgood.InmakinginvestmentsitsbecomemyhabittoworrylessabouttheeconomicfuturethanIdoabouttheS/Dpicturerelatingtocapital.Beingpositionedtomakeinvestmentsinanuncrowdedarenaconveysvastadvantages.Oaktreesmantrawithdistresseddebtinvestingis'goodcompany,badbalancesheet'.Thebasicreasonforthecyclicalityinourworldistheinvolvementofhumans.Peopleareemotionalandinconsistent,notsteadyandclinical. ...more flag 1like · Like  · seereview Mar03,2019 ShaneThompson ratedit likedit  ·  reviewofanotheredition IpickedupMasteringtheMarketCyclebasedoffofafriend’srecommendation.WhileIimaginethatmanypeoplewhoreadthebookwillbepeoplefamiliarwithMr.Marks,hisfundandhisinvestmentstyle,Iwasn’toneofthem,soIreadthebookunbiasedandunfamiliarwithhimorhisinvestmentperformance.Generally,itcanbeamomentofpridewhenwetakethingsatfacevalue,drawourownconclusionsandnottaintingourimpressionsjustbecauseof“who”theyarecomingfrom.Thescientific IpickedupMasteringtheMarketCyclebasedoffofafriend’srecommendation.WhileIimaginethatmanypeoplewhoreadthebookwillbepeoplefamiliarwithMr.Marks,hisfundandhisinvestmentstyle,Iwasn’toneofthem,soIreadthebookunbiasedandunfamiliarwithhimorhisinvestmentperformance.Generally,itcanbeamomentofpridewhenwetakethingsatfacevalue,drawourownconclusionsandnottaintingourimpressionsjustbecauseof“who”theyarecomingfrom.Thescientificmethodteachesustocreateandtesthypotheses,beobjectiveandstriveforatrueideameritocracy,wherethebestideasgetrewarded,nottheideasfromthemostfamouscelebrity.Inthiscase,Idon’tfeelthatmylogicheld.Thisisnotanacademicbookfulloffactsanddata.Marksisn’trevealingobjectivetruthsorpresentingcounter-intuitivestatisticalanomalies.He’sessentiallygivingushis’gutguide’–agutguidewrittenbyamanwithover40yearsofinvestmentmanagementexperienceandanunusuallyhighlevelofsuccess.Intalkingtosomepeopleinmypeergroupwhoreadthebookacommonthemeofcritiquewasthat“there’snothingintherethatIdidn’talreadyknow”.Withoutdisagreeing,walkingawaywiththattakewaysquanderstheopportunityofthebook.Whilewemayalready“know”aboutwhatMarksissaying,howmanyofusactually“do”it?Theideashepresentshereareinsomewayssimple.Goaheadanddoyourvaluationsandquantitativeanalysis,butwhenyou’reextrapolatinggrowthfromthelastfewyears,orlossesfromthesamelastfewyears,considerthatthesethingswillnotpersist.Askyourselfwhatinningofthecyclearewein,andwithouttryingtopreciselytimeorpredictthemarket,foldthisconvictionintoyourbets.Ifyouareinalatecyclerecovery,keepalittledrypowderonthesidelineforopportunitiesoncethecracksstarttoshow.It’snotaboutpredictingthemarket,it’saboutgettingtheflowoftidesonyourside.IthinkwhatMarksgetsatisthatgoodinvestorshavetwostrengths.Mostinvestorshaveareasonableabilitytolookatstrategy,valuationandtrendsanddoavaluation.Butactuallymakingthosebetstakesasolidstomach.Andthatisthepartthatmanyinvestorshaven’tmastered.Wegetqueasywhenthemarketdoesn’tplayalongwithourexpectations.Ifweseea-200pointday,doweignoreit,dowesell,dowedoubledown?Andthosearethequestionsthatcaneatatyouandkeepyouupatnight.SowhileMark’sadviseiseasiersaidthandone,ifyouapproachportfoliomanagementrightfromthestart,youshouldhaveabetterchanceofbeingrightmorethanyouarewrong.SoMark’sbookisn’taroundanalysis(sorryforyouquantsoutthere).Tomeit’saboutthestomachofaguywhohasplayedthegamefor40+yearsandsurvived.Heshareshisstoryofhowhedecideswheretoputcapitalandhowtodealwiththoseinevitablestomachturningdays.Ithinkit’sworthareadasareminderformanyofuswhocangetpulledintothetrapsofdailynewsandvolatilityonhowtostepbackandstrivetowardbeingamasterofthemarketcycle. ...more flag 1like · Like  · seereview «previous12345678910next» newtopicDiscussThisBook Therearenodiscussiontopicsonthisbookyet. Bethefirsttostartone» Share RecommendIt  |  Stats  |  RecentStatusUpdates Readersalsoenjoyed Seesimilarbooks… Genres Economics> Finance 161users Business 77users Economics 71users Nonfiction 37users Currency> Money 13users Psychology 13users Finance> PersonalFinance 11users History 3users Philosophy 2users SelfHelp> PersonalDevelopment 2users Seetopshelves… AboutHowardMarks HowardMarks 524 followers LibrarianNote:ThereismorethanoneauthorintheGoodreadsdatabasewiththisname.Ifaddingbookstothisauthor,pleaseuseHoward^^Marks.HowardStanleyMarksisanAmericaninvestorandwriter.HeholdsaB.S.Ec.degreecumlaudefromtheWhartonSchooloftheUniversityofPennsylvaniawithamajorinfinanceandanM.B.A.inaccountingandmarketingfromtheBoothSchoolofBusinessoft LibrarianNote:ThereismorethanoneauthorintheGoodreadsdatabasewiththisname.Ifaddingbookstothisauthor,pleaseuseHoward^^Marks.HowardStanleyMarksisanAmericaninvestorandwriter.HeholdsaB.S.Ec.degreecumlaudefromtheWhartonSchooloftheUniversityofPennsylvaniawithamajorinfinanceandanM.B.A.inaccountingandmarketingfromtheBoothSchoolofBusinessoftheUniversityofChicago,wherehereceivedtheGeorgeHayBrownPrize.HeisaCFA®charterholderandaCharteredInvestmentCounselor.In1995,heco-foundedOaktreeCapitalManagement.From1985until1995,heledthegroupsatTheTCWGroup,Inc.thatwereresponsibleforinvestmentsindistresseddebt,highyieldbonds,andconvertiblesecurities.HewasalsoChiefInvestmentOfficerforDomesticFixedIncomeatTCW.Previously,hewaswithCiticorpInvestmentManagementfor16years,wherefrom1978to1985hewasVicePresidentandseniorportfoliomanagerinchargeofconvertibleandhighyieldsecurities.Between1969and1978,hewasanequityresearchanalystand,subsequently,Citicorp'sDirectorofResearch.(source:http://www.oaktreecapital.com/people/...) ...more BooksbyHowardMarks More… News&InterviewsReaders'MostAnticipatedYABooksofAugust   Asdedicatedreadersalreadyknow,someofthebestandmostinnovativestoriesontheshelvescomefromtheconstantlyevolvingrealmof...Readmore...15likes·0comments TriviaAboutMasteringtheMar... Notriviaorquizzesyet.Addsomenow» Quotesfrom掌握市場週期 “WarrenBuffetttellsus,“Thelessprudencewithwhichothersconducttheiraffairs,thegreatertheprudencewithwhichweshouldconductourownaffairs.” — 5likes “thethreestagesofabullmarket”:thefirststage,whenonlyafewunusuallyperceptivepeoplebelievethingswillgetbetter,thesecondstage,whenmostinvestorsrealizethatimprovementisactuallytakingplace,andthethirdstage,wheneveryoneconcludesthingswillgetbetterforever.” — 4likes Morequotes… Welcomeback.JustamomentwhilewesignyouintoyourGoodreadsaccount.