El Niño - Wikipedia

'The Boy') is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east- ... ElNiño FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia Jumptonavigation Jumptosearch WarmphaseofacyclicclimaticphenomenoninthePacificOcean Forotheruses,seeElNiño(disambiguation). NormalPacificpattern:Warmpoolinthewestdrivesdeepatmosphericconvection.Intheeastlocalwindscausenutrient-richcoldwatertoupwellattheEquatorandalongtheSouthAmericancoast.(NOAA/PMEL/TAO)ElNiñoconditions:warmwaterandatmosphericconvectionmoveeastwards.InstrongElNiñosthedeeperthermoclineoffS.Americameansupwelledwateriswarmandnutrientpoor. ElNiño(/ɛlˈniːn.joʊ/;Spanish: [elˈniɲo];lit. 'TheBoy')isthewarmphaseoftheElNiño–SouthernOscillation(ENSO)andisassociatedwithabandofwarmoceanwaterthatdevelopsinthecentralandeast-centralequatorialPacific(approximatelybetweentheInternationalDateLineand120°W),includingtheareaoffthePacificcoastofSouthAmerica.TheENSOisthecycleofwarmandcoldseasurfacetemperature(SST)ofthetropicalcentralandeasternPacificOcean.ElNiñoisaccompaniedbyhighairpressureinthewesternPacificandlowairpressureintheeasternPacific.ElNiñophasesareknowntolastclosetofouryears;however,recordsdemonstratethatthecycleshavelastedbetweentwoandsevenyears.DuringthedevelopmentofElNiño,rainfalldevelopsbetweenSeptember–November.[clarificationneeded][1]ThecoolphaseofENSOisSpanish:LaNiña,lit. 'TheGirl',withSSTsintheeasternPacificbelowaverage,andairpressurehighintheeasternPacificandlowinthewesternPacific.TheENSOcycle,includingbothElNiñoandLaNiña,causesglobalchangesintemperatureandrainfall.[2][3] Developingcountriesthatdependontheirownagricultureandfishing,particularlythoseborderingthePacificOcean,areusuallymostaffected.InthisphaseoftheOscillation,thepoolofwarmwaterinthePacificnearSouthAmericaisoftenatitswarmestaboutChristmas.[4]Theoriginalphrase,ElNiñodeNavidad,arosecenturiesago,whenPeruvianfishermennamedtheweatherphenomenonafterthenewbornChrist.[5][6] Contents 1Concept 2Occurrences 3Culturalhistoryandprehistoricinformation 4Diversity 5Effectsontheglobalclimate 5.1Tropicalcyclones 5.2RemoteinfluenceontropicalAtlanticOcean 6Regionalimpacts 6.1Africa 6.2Antarctica 6.3Asia 6.4AustraliaandtheSouthernPacific 6.5Europe 6.6NorthAmerica 6.7SouthAmerica 7Socio-ecologicaleffectsforhumanityandnature 7.1Economicaleffects 7.2Healthandsocialimpacts 7.3Ecologicalconsequences 8References 9Furtherreading 10Externallinks Concept[edit] Originally,thetermElNiñoappliedtoanannualweakwarmoceancurrentthatransouthwardsalongthecoastofPeruandEcuadorataboutChristmastime.[7]However,overtimethetermhasevolvedandnowreferstothewarmandnegativephaseoftheElNiño–SouthernOscillationandisthewarmingoftheoceansurfaceorabove-averageseasurfacetemperaturesinthecentralandeasterntropicalPacificOcean.[8][9]ThiswarmingcausesashiftintheatmosphericcirculationwithrainfallbecomingreducedoverIndonesia,IndiaandnorthernAustralia,whilerainfallandtropicalcycloneformationincreasesoverthetropicalPacificOcean.[10]Thelow-levelsurfacetradewinds,whichnormallyblowfromeasttowestalongtheequator,eitherweakenorstartblowingfromtheotherdirection.[9] Loopofwarmingseasurfacetemperature(SST)anomaliesintheTropicalPacific ItisbelievedthatElNiñohasoccurredforthousandsofyears.[11]Forexample,itisthoughtthatElNiñoaffectedtheMocheinmodern-dayPeru.ScientistshavealsofoundchemicalsignaturesofwarmerseasurfacetemperaturesandincreasedrainfallcausedbyElNiñoincoralspecimensthatarearound13,000 yearsold.[12]Around1525,whenFranciscoPizarromadelandfallinPeru,henotedrainfallinthedeserts,thefirstwrittenrecordoftheimpactsofElNiño.[12]Moderndayresearchandreanalysistechniqueshavemanagedtofindatleast26ElNiñoeventssince1900,withthe1982–83,1997–98and2014–16eventsamongthestrongestonrecord.[13][14][15] Currently,eachcountryhasadifferentthresholdforwhatconstitutesanElNiñoevent,whichistailoredtotheirspecificinterests.[16]Forexample,theAustralianBureauofMeteorologylooksatthetradewinds,SOI,weathermodelsandseasurfacetemperaturesintheNiño3and3.4regions,beforedeclaringanElNiño.[17]TheUnitedStatesClimatePredictionCenter(CPC)andtheInternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSociety(IRI)looksattheseasurfacetemperaturesintheNiño3.4region,thetropicalPacificatmosphereandforecaststhatNOAA'sOceanicNiñoIndexwillequalorexceed+.5 °C(0.90 °F)forseveralseasonsinarow.[18]However,theJapanMeteorologicalAgencydeclaresthatanElNiñoeventhasstartedwhentheaveragefivemonthseasurfacetemperaturedeviationfortheNINO.3region,isover0.5 °C(0.90 °F)warmerforsixconsecutivemonthsorlonger.[19]ThePeruviangovernmentdeclaresthatacoastalElNiñoisunderwayiftheseasurfacetemperaturedeviationintheNiño1and2regionsequalorexceed0.4 °C(0.72 °F)foratleastthreemonths. Thereisnoconsensuswhetherclimatechangewillhaveanyinfluenceontheoccurrence,strengthordurationofElNiñoevents,asresearchsupportsElNiñoeventsbecomingstronger,longer,shorterandweaker.[20][21]However,recentscholarshiphasfoundthatclimatechangeisincreasingthefrequencyofextremeElNiñoevents.[22][23] Occurrences[edit] AtimelineofalltheElNiñoepisodesbetween1900and2022.[13][14] ElNiñoeventsarethoughttohavebeenoccurringforthousandsofyears.[11]Forexample,itisthoughtthatElNiñoaffectedtheMocheinmodern-dayPeru,whosacrificedhumansinordertotrytopreventtherains.[24] Itisthoughtthattherehavebeenatleast30ElNiñoeventssince1900,withthe1982–83,1997–98and2014–16eventsamongthestrongestonrecord.[13][14]Since2000,ElNiñoeventshavebeenobservedin2002–03,2004–05,2006–07,2009–10,2014–16,[13]and2018–19.[25][26] MajorENSOeventswererecordedintheyears1790–93,1828,1876–78,1891,1925–26,1972–73,1982–83,1997–98,and2014–16.[27][28][29] Typically,thisanomalyhappensatirregularintervalsoftwotosevenyears,andlastsninemonthstotwoyears.[30]Theaverageperiodlengthisfiveyears.Whenthiswarmingoccursforseventoninemonths,itisclassifiedasElNiño"conditions";whenitsdurationislonger,itisclassifiedasanElNiño"episode".[31] DuringstrongElNiñoepisodes,asecondarypeakinseasurfacetemperatureacrossthefareasternequatorialPacificOceansometimesfollowstheinitialpeak.[32] Culturalhistoryandprehistoricinformation[edit] AverageequatorialPacifictemperatures ENSOconditionshaveoccurredattwo-toseven-yearintervalsforatleastthepast300years,butmostofthemhavebeenweak.EvidenceisalsostrongforElNiñoeventsduringtheearlyHoloceneepoch10,000yearsago.[33] ElNiñomayhaveledtothedemiseoftheMocheandotherpre-ColumbianPeruviancultures.[34]ArecentstudysuggestsastrongElNiñoeffectbetween1789and1793causedpoorcropyieldsinEurope,whichinturnhelpedtouchofftheFrenchRevolution.[35]TheextremeweatherproducedbyElNiñoin1876–77gaverisetothemostdeadlyfaminesofthe19thcentury.[36]The1876faminealoneinnorthernChinakilledupto13millionpeople.[37] Anearlyrecordedmentionoftheterm"ElNiño"torefertoclimateoccurredin1892,whenCaptainCamiloCarrillotoldthegeographicalsocietycongressinLimathatPeruviansailorsnamedthewarmsouth-flowingcurrent"ElNiño"becauseitwasmostnoticeablearoundChristmas.[38]Thephenomenonhadlongbeenofinterestbecauseofitseffectsontheguanoindustryandotherenterprisesthatdependonbiologicalproductivityofthesea.Itisrecordedthatasearlyas1822,cartographerJosephLartigue,oftheFrenchfrigateLaClorindeunderBaronMackau,notedthe"counter-current"anditsusefulnessfortravelingsouthwardalongthePeruviancoast.[39][40][41] CharlesTodd,in1888,suggesteddroughtsinIndiaandAustraliatendedtooccuratthesametime;[42]NormanLockyernotedthesamein1904.[43]AnElNiñoconnectionwithfloodingwasreportedin1894byVictorEguiguren(1852–1919)andin1895byFedericoAlfonsoPezet(1859–1929).[44][40][45]In1924,GilbertWalker(forwhomtheWalkercirculationisnamed)coinedtheterm"SouthernOscillation".[46]Heandothers(includingNorwegian-AmericanmeteorologistJacobBjerknes)aregenerallycreditedwithidentifyingtheElNiñoeffect.[47] Themajor1982–83ElNiñoledtoanupsurgeofinterestfromthescientificcommunity.Theperiod1990–95wasunusualinthatElNiñoshaverarelyoccurredinsuchrapidsuccession.[48][49][50]AnespeciallyintenseElNiñoeventin1998causedanestimated16%oftheworld'sreefsystemstodie.Theeventtemporarilywarmedairtemperatureby1.5 °C,comparedtotheusualincreaseof0.25 °CassociatedwithElNiñoevents.[51]Sincethen,masscoralbleachinghasbecomecommonworldwide,withallregionshavingsuffered"severebleaching".[52] Diversity[edit] MapshowingNiño3.4andotherindexregions ItisthoughtthatthereareseveraldifferenttypesofElNiñoevents,withthecanonicaleasternPacificandtheModokicentralPacifictypesbeingthetwothatreceivethemostattention.[53][54][55]ThesedifferenttypesofElNiñoeventsareclassifiedbywherethetropicalPacificseasurfacetemperature(SST)anomaliesarethelargest.[55]Forexample,thestrongestseasurfacetemperatureanomaliesassociatedwiththecanonicaleasternPacificeventarelocatedoffthecoastofSouthAmerica.[55]ThestrongestanomaliesassociatedwiththeModokicentralPacificeventarelocatedneartheInternationalDateLine.[55]However,duringthedurationofasingleevent,theareawiththegreatestseasurfacetemperatureanomaliescanchange.[55] ThetraditionalNiño,alsocalledEasternPacific(EP)ElNiño,[56]involvestemperatureanomaliesintheEasternPacific.However,inthelasttwodecades,atypicalElNiñoswereobserved,inwhichtheusualplaceofthetemperatureanomaly(Niño1and2)isnotaffected,butananomalyarisesinthecentralPacific(Niño3.4).[57]ThephenomenoniscalledCentralPacific(CP)ElNiño,[56]"dateline"ElNiño(becausetheanomalyarisesneartheInternationalDateLine),orElNiño"Modoki"(ModokiisJapanesefor"similar,butdifferent").[58][59][60][61] TheeffectsoftheCPElNiñoaredifferentfromthoseofthetraditionalEPElNiño—e.g.,therecentlydiscoveredElNiñoleadstomorehurricanesmorefrequentlymakinglandfallintheAtlantic.[62] Thereisalsoascientificdebateontheveryexistenceofthis"new"ENSO.Indeed,anumberofstudiesdisputetherealityofthisstatisticaldistinctionoritsincreasingoccurrence,orboth,eitherarguingthereliablerecordistooshorttodetectsuchadistinction,[63][64]findingnodistinctionortrendusingotherstatisticalapproaches,[65][66][67][68][69]orthatothertypesshouldbedistinguished,suchasstandardandextremeENSO.[70][71] ThefirstrecordedElNiñothatoriginatedinthecentralPacificandmovedtowardtheeastwasin1986.[72]RecentCentralPacificElNiñoshappenedin1986–87,1991–92,1994–95,2002–03,2004–05and2009–10.[73]Furthermore,therewere"Modoki"eventsin1957–59,[74]1963–64,1965–66,1968–70,1977–78and1979–80.[75][76]SomesourcessaythattheElNiñosof2006-07and2014-16werealsoCentralPacificElNiños.[77][78] Effectsontheglobalclimate[edit] ColoredbarsshowhowElNiñoyears(red,regionalwarming)andLaNiñayears(blue,regionalcooling)relatetooverallglobalwarming.ElNiñoyearsusuallycorrespondtoannualglobaltemperatureincreases. ElNiñoaffectstheglobalclimateanddisruptsnormalweatherpatterns,whichasaresultcanleadtointensestormsinsomeplacesanddroughtsinothers.[79][80] Tropicalcyclones[edit] Mosttropicalcyclonesformonthesideofthesubtropicalridgeclosertotheequator,thenmovepolewardpasttheridgeaxisbeforerecurvingintothemainbeltoftheWesterlies.[81]AreaswestofJapanandKoreatendtoexperiencemanyfewerSeptember–NovembertropicalcycloneimpactsduringElNiñoandneutralyears.DuringElNiñoyears,thebreakinthesubtropicalridgetendstolienear130°E,whichwouldfavortheJapanesearchipelago.[82] WithintheAtlanticOceanverticalwindshearisincreased,whichinhibitstropicalcyclonegenesisandintensification,bycausingthewesterlywindsintheatmospheretobestronger.[83]TheatmosphereovertheAtlanticOceancanalsobedrierandmorestableduringElNiñoevents,whichcanalsoinhibittropicalcyclonegenesisandintensification.[83]WithintheEasternPacificbasin:ElNiñoeventscontributetodecreasedeasterlyverticalwindshearandfavoursabove-normalhurricaneactivity.[84]However,theimpactsoftheENSOstateinthisregioncanvaryandarestronglyinfluencedbybackgroundclimatepatterns.[84]TheWesternPacificbasinexperiencesachangeinthelocationofwheretropicalcyclonesformduringElNiñoevents,withtropicalcycloneformationshiftingeastward,withoutamajorchangeinhowmanydevelopeachyear.[83]Asaresultofthischange,Micronesiaismorelikelytobeaffectedbytropicalcyclones,whileChinahasadecreasedriskofbeingaffectedbytropicalcyclones.[82]AchangeinthelocationofwheretropicalcyclonesformalsooccurswithintheSouthernPacificOceanbetween135°Eand120°W,withtropicalcyclonesmorelikelytooccurwithintheSouthernPacificbasinthantheAustralianregion.[10][83]Asaresultofthischangetropicalcyclonesare50%lesslikelytomakelandfallonQueensland,whiletheriskofatropicalcycloneiselevatedforislandnationslikeNiue,FrenchPolynesia,Tonga,Tuvalu,andtheCookIslands.[10][85][86] RemoteinfluenceontropicalAtlanticOcean[edit] AstudyofclimaterecordshasshownthatElNiñoeventsintheequatorialPacificaregenerallyassociatedwithawarmtropicalNorthAtlanticinthefollowingspringandsummer.[87]AbouthalfofElNiñoeventspersistsufficientlyintothespringmonthsfortheWesternHemisphereWarmPooltobecomeunusuallylargeinsummer.[88]Occasionally,ElNiño'seffectontheAtlanticWalkercirculationoverSouthAmericastrengthenstheeasterlytradewindsinthewesternequatorialAtlanticregion.Asaresult,anunusualcoolingmayoccurintheeasternequatorialAtlanticinspringandsummerfollowingElNiñopeaksinwinter.[89]CasesofElNiño-typeeventsinbothoceanssimultaneouslyhavebeenlinkedtoseverefaminesrelatedtotheextendedfailureofmonsoonrains.[27] Regionalimpacts[edit] ObservationsofElNiñoeventssince1950showthatimpactsassociatedwithElNiñoeventsdependonthetimeofyear.[90]However,whilecertaineventsandimpactsareexpectedtooccurduringevents,itisnotcertainorguaranteedthattheywilloccur.[90]TheimpactsthatgenerallydooccurduringmostElNiñoeventsincludebelow-averagerainfalloverIndonesiaandnorthernSouthAmerica,whileaboveaveragerainfalloccursinsoutheasternSouthAmerica,easternequatorialAfrica,andthesouthernUnitedStates.[90] Africa[edit] InAfrica,EastAfrica—includingKenya,Tanzania,andtheWhiteNilebasin—experiences,inthelongrainsfromMarchtoMay,wetter-than-normalconditions.ConditionsarealsodrierthannormalfromDecembertoFebruaryinsouth-centralAfrica,mainlyinZambia,Zimbabwe,Mozambique,andBotswana. Antarctica[edit] ManyENSOlinkagesexistinthehighsouthernlatitudesaroundAntarctica.[91]Specifically,ElNiñoconditionsresultinhigh-pressureanomaliesovertheAmundsenandBellingshausenSeas,causingreducedseaiceandincreasedpolewardheatfluxesinthesesectors,aswellastheRossSea.TheWeddellSea,conversely,tendstobecomecolderwithmoreseaiceduringElNiño.TheexactoppositeheatingandatmosphericpressureanomaliesoccurduringLaNiña.[92]ThispatternofvariabilityisknownastheAntarcticdipolemode,althoughtheAntarcticresponsetoENSOforcingisnotubiquitous.[92] Asia[edit] AswarmwaterspreadsfromthewestPacificandtheIndianOceantotheeastPacific,ittakestherainwithit,causingextensivedroughtinthewesternPacificandrainfallinthenormallydryeasternPacific.SingaporeexperiencedthedriestFebruaryin2014sincerecordsbeganin1869,withonly6.3 mmofrainfallinginthemonthandtemperatureshittingashighas35 °Con26February.Theyears1968and2005hadthenextdriestFebruaries,when8.4 mmofrainfell.[93] AustraliaandtheSouthernPacific[edit] Seealso:EffectsoftheElNiño–SouthernOscillationinAustralia DuringElNiñoevents,theshiftinrainfallawayfromtheWesternPacificmaymeanthatrainfallacrossAustraliaisreduced.[10]Overthesouthernpartofthecontinent,warmerthanaveragetemperaturescanberecordedasweathersystemsaremoremobileandfewerblockingareasofhighpressureoccur.[10]TheonsetoftheIndo-AustralianMonsoonintropicalAustraliaisdelayedbytwotosixweeks,whichasaconsequencemeansthatrainfallisreducedoverthenortherntropics.[10]Theriskofasignificantbushfireseasoninsouth-easternAustraliaishigherfollowinganElNiñoevent,especiallywhenitiscombinedwithapositiveIndianOceanDipoleevent.[10]DuringanElNiñoevent,NewZealandtendstoexperiencestrongerormorefrequentwesterlywindsduringtheirsummer,whichleadstoanelevatedriskofdrierthannormalconditionsalongtheeastcoast.[94]ThereismorerainthanusualthoughonNewZealand'sWestCoast,becauseofthebarriereffectoftheNorthIslandmountainrangesandtheSouthernAlps.[94] FijigenerallyexperiencesdrierthannormalconditionsduringanElNiño,whichcanleadtodroughtbecomingestablishedovertheIslands.[95]However,themainimpactsontheislandnationisfeltaboutayearaftertheeventbecomesestablished.[95]WithintheSamoanIslands,belowaveragerainfallandhigherthannormaltemperaturesarerecordedduringElNiñoevents,whichcanleadtodroughtsandforestfiresontheislands.[96]Otherimpactsincludeadecreaseinthesealevel,possibilityofcoralbleachinginthemarineenvironmentandanincreasedriskofatropicalcycloneaffectingSamoa.[96] Europe[edit] ElNiño'seffectsonEuropearecontroversial,complexanddifficulttoanalyse,asitisoneofseveralfactorsthatinfluencetheweatheroverthecontinentandotherfactorscanoverwhelmthesignal.[97][98] NorthAmerica[edit] RegionalimpactsofwarmENSOepisodes(ElNiño) Seealso:EffectsoftheElNiño–SouthernOscillationintheUnitedStates OverNorthAmerica,themaintemperatureandprecipitationimpactsofElNiño,generallyoccurinthesixmonthsbetweenOctoberandMarch.[99][100]InparticularthemajorityofCanadagenerallyhasmilderthannormalwintersandsprings,withtheexceptionofeasternCanadawherenosignificantimpactsoccur.[101]WithintheUnitedStates,theimpactsgenerallyobservedduringthesix-monthperiodinclude;wetter-than-averageconditionsalongtheGulfCoastbetweenTexasandFlorida,whiledrierconditionsareobservedinHawaii,theOhioValley,PacificNorthwestandtheRockyMountains.[99] Historically,ElNiñowasnotunderstoodtoaffectU.S.weatherpatternsuntilChristensenetal.(1981)[102]usedentropyminimaxpatterndiscoverybasedoninformationtheorytoadvancethescienceoflongrangeweatherprediction.Previouscomputermodelsofweatherwerebasedonpersistencealoneandreliabletoonly5–7daysintothefuture.Longrangeforecastingwasessentiallyrandom.Christensenetal.demonstratedtheabilitytopredicttheprobabilitythatprecipitationwillbebeloworaboveaveragewithmodestbutstatisticallysignificantskillone,twoandeventhreeyearsintothefuture. StudyofmorerecentweathereventsoverCaliforniaandthesouthwesternUnitedStatesindicatethatthereisavariablerelationshipbetweenElNiñoandabove-averageprecipitation,asitstronglydependsonthestrengthoftheElNiñoeventandotherfactors.[99]ThoughithasbeenhistoricallyassociatedwithhighrainfallinCalifornia,theeffectsofElNiñodependmorestronglyonthe"flavor"ofElNiñothanitspresenceorabsence,asonly"persistentElNiño"eventsleadtoconsistentlyhighrainfall.[103][104] ThesynopticconditionfortheTehuanowind,or"Tehuantepecer",isassociatedwithahigh-pressureareaforminginSierraMadreofMexicointhewakeofanadvancingcoldfront,whichcauseswindstoacceleratethroughtheIsthmusofTehuantepec.Tehuantepecersprimarilyoccurduringthecoldseasonmonthsfortheregioninthewakeofcoldfronts,betweenOctoberandFebruary,withasummermaximuminJulycausedbythewestwardextensionoftheAzoresHigh.WindmagnitudeisgreaterduringElNiñoyearsthanduringLaNiñayears,duetothemorefrequentcoldfrontalincursionsduringElNiñowinters.[105]Itseffectscanlastfromafewhourstosixdays.[106]SomeElNiñoeventswererecordedintheisotopesignalsofplants,andthathadhelpedcentificstostudyhisimpact.[107] SouthAmerica[edit] BecauseElNiño'swarmpoolfeedsthunderstormsabove,itcreatesincreasedrainfallacrosstheeast-centralandeasternPacificOcean,includingseveralportionsoftheSouthAmericanwestcoast.TheeffectsofElNiñoinSouthAmericaaredirectandstrongerthaninNorthAmerica.AnElNiñoisassociatedwithwarmandverywetweathermonthsinApril–OctoberalongthecoastsofnorthernPeruandEcuador,causingmajorfloodingwhenevertheeventisstrongorextreme.[108]TheeffectsduringthemonthsofFebruary,March,andAprilmaybecomecriticalalongthewestcoastofSouthAmerica,ElNiñoreducestheupwellingofcold,nutrient-richwaterthatsustainslargefishpopulations,whichinturnsustainabundantseabirds,whosedroppingssupportthefertilizerindustry.ThereductioninupwellingleadstofishkillsofftheshoreofPeru.[109] Thelocalfishingindustryalongtheaffectedcoastlinecansufferduringlong-lastingElNiñoevents.Theworld'slargestfisherycollapsedduetooverfishingduringthe1972ElNiñoPeruviananchovetareduction.Duringthe1982–83event,jackmackerelandanchovetapopulationswerereduced,scallopsincreasedinwarmerwater,buthakefollowedcoolerwaterdownthecontinentalslope,whileshrimpandsardinesmovedsouthward,sosomecatchesdecreasedwhileothersincreased.[110]Horsemackerelhaveincreasedintheregionduringwarmevents.Shiftinglocationsandtypesoffishduetochangingconditionscreatechallengesforthefishingindustry.PeruviansardineshavemovedduringElNiñoeventstoChileanareas.Otherconditionsprovidefurthercomplications,suchasthegovernmentofChilein1991creatingrestrictionsonthefishingareasforself-employedfishermenandindustrialfleets. TheENSOvariabilitymaycontributetothegreatsuccessofsmall,fast-growingspeciesalongthePeruviancoast,asperiodsoflowpopulationremovespredatorsinthearea.Similareffectsbenefitmigratorybirdsthattraveleachspringfrompredator-richtropicalareastodistantwinter-stressednestingareas. SouthernBrazilandnorthernArgentinaalsoexperiencewetterthannormalconditions,butmainlyduringthespringandearlysummer.CentralChilereceivesamildwinterwithlargerainfall,andthePeruvian-BolivianAltiplanoissometimesexposedtounusualwintersnowfallevents.DrierandhotterweatheroccursinpartsoftheAmazonRiverBasin,Colombia,andCentralAmerica.[111] Socio-ecologicaleffectsforhumanityandnature[edit] Economicaleffects[edit] ElNiñohasthemostdirectimpactsonlifeintheequatorialPacific,itseffectspropagatenorthandsouthalongthecoastoftheAmericas,affectingmarinelifeallaroundthePacific.Changesinchlorophyll-aconcentrationsarevisibleinthisanimation,whichcomparesphytoplanktoninJanuaryandJuly1998.Sincethen,scientistshaveimprovedboththecollectionandpresentationofchlorophylldata. WhenElNiñoconditionslastformanymonths,extensiveoceanwarmingandthereductionineasterlytradewindslimitsupwellingofcoldnutrient-richdeepwater,anditseconomiceffectonlocalfishingforaninternationalmarketcanbeserious.[109] Moregenerally,ElNiñocanaffectcommoditypricesandthemacroeconomyofdifferentcountries.Itcanconstrainthesupplyofrain-drivenagriculturalcommodities;reduceagriculturaloutput,construction,andservicesactivities;createfood-priceandgeneralisedinflation;andmaytriggersocialunrestincommodity-dependentpoorcountriesthatprimarilyrelyonimportedfood.[112]AUniversityofCambridgeWorkingPapershowsthatwhileAustralia,Chile,Indonesia,India,Japan,NewZealandandSouthAfricafaceashort-livedfallineconomicactivityinresponsetoanElNiñoshock,othercountriesmayactuallybenefitfromanElNiñoweathershock(eitherdirectlyorindirectlythroughpositivespilloversfrommajortradingpartners),forinstance,Argentina,Canada,MexicoandtheUnitedStates.Furthermore,mostcountriesexperienceshort-runinflationarypressuresfollowinganElNiñoshock,whileglobalenergyandnon-fuelcommoditypricesincrease.[113]TheIMFestimatesasignificantElNiñocanboosttheGDPoftheUnitedStatesbyabout0.5%(duelargelytolowerheatingbills)andreducetheGDPofIndonesiabyabout1.0%.[114] Healthandsocialimpacts[edit] ExtremeweatherconditionsrelatedtotheElNiñocyclecorrelatewithchangesintheincidenceofepidemicdiseases.Forexample,theElNiñocycleisassociatedwithincreasedrisksofsomeofthediseasestransmittedbymosquitoes,suchasmalaria,denguefever,andRiftValleyfever.[115]CyclesofmalariainIndia,Venezuela,Brazil,andColombiahavenowbeenlinkedtoElNiño.Outbreaksofanothermosquito-transmitteddisease,Australianencephalitis(MurrayValleyencephalitis—MVE),occurintemperatesouth-eastAustraliaafterheavyrainfallandflooding,whichareassociatedwithLaNiñaevents.AsevereoutbreakofRiftValleyfeveroccurredafterextremerainfallinnorth-easternKenyaandsouthernSomaliaduringthe1997–98ElNiño.[116] ENSOconditionshavealsobeenrelatedtoKawasakidiseaseincidenceinJapanandthewestcoastoftheUnitedStates,[117]viathelinkagetotroposphericwindsacrossthenorthPacificOcean.[118] ENSOmaybelinkedtocivilconflicts.ScientistsatTheEarthInstituteofColumbiaUniversity,havinganalyzeddatafrom1950to2004,suggestENSOmayhavehadarolein21%ofallcivilconflictssince1950,withtheriskofannualcivilconflictdoublingfrom3%to6%incountriesaffectedbyENSOduringElNiñoyearsrelativetoLaNiñayears.[119][120] Ecologicalconsequences[edit] Interrestrialecosystems,rodentoutbreakswereobservedinnorthernChileandalongthePeruviancoastaldesertfollowingthe1972-73ElNiñoevent.Whilesomenocturnalprimates(westerntarsiersTarsiusbancanusandslowlorisNycticebuscoucang)andtheMalayansunbear(Helarctosmalayanus)werelocallyextirpateorsuffereddrasticreductioninnumberswithintheseburnedforests.LepidopteraoutbreaksweredocumentedinPanamáandCostaRica.Duringthe1982–83,1997–98and2015–16ENSOevents,largeextensionsoftropicalforestsexperiencedaprolongeddryperiodthatresultedinwidespreadfires,anddrasticchangesinforeststructureandtreespeciescompositioninAmazonianandBorneanforests.ButTheirimpactsdonotrestrictonlyvegetation,sincedeclinesininsectpopulationswereobservedafterextremedroughtandterriblefiresduringElNiño2015–16.[121]Declinesinhabitat-specialistanddisturbance-sensitivebirdspeciesandinlarge-frugivorousmammalswerealsoobservedinAmazonianburnedforests,whiletemporaryextirpationofmorethan100lowlandbutterflyspeciesoccurredataburnedforestsiteinBorneo. Mostcritically,globalmassbleachingeventswererecordedin1997-98and2015–16,whenaround75-99%lossesoflivecoralwereregisteredacrosstheword.ConsiderableattentionwasalsogiventothecollapseofPeruvianandChileananchovypopulationsthatledtoaseverefisherycrisisfollowingtheENSOeventsin1972–73,1982–83,1997–98and,morerecently,in2015–16.Inparticular,increasedsurfaceseawatertemperaturesin1982-83alsoleadtotheprobableextinctionoftwohydrocoralspeciesinPanamá,andtoamassivemortalityofkelpbedsalong600 kmofcoastlineinChile,fromwhichkelpsandassociatedbiodiversityslowlyrecoveredinthemostaffectedareasevenafter20years.AllthesefindingsenlargetheroleofENSOeventsasastrongclimaticforcedrivingecologicalchangesallaroundtheworld–particularlyintropicalforestsandcoralreefs.[122] References[edit] ^Changnon,StanleyA(2000).ElNiño1997-98TheClimateEventofTheCentury.NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress.pp. 35.ISBN 0-19-513552-0. 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^Cashin,Paul;Mohaddes,Kamiar&Raissi,Mehdi(2014)."FairWeatherorFoul?TheMacroeconomicEffectsofElNiño"(PDF).CambridgeWorkingPapersinEconomics.Archivedfromtheoriginal(PDF)on28July2014. ^"InternationalMonetaryFund".Imf.org.Retrieved1March2022. ^"ElNinoanditshealthimpact".allcountries.org.Retrieved10October2017. ^"ElNiñoanditshealthimpact".HealthTopicsAtoZ.Retrieved1January2011. ^Ballester,Joan;JaneC.Burns;DanCayan;YosikazuNakamura;RiteiUehara;XavierRodó(2013)."KawasakidiseaseandENSO-drivenwindcirculation"(PDF).GeophysicalResearchLetters.40(10):2284–2289.Bibcode:2013GeoRL..40.2284B.doi:10.1002/grl.50388. ^Rodó,Xavier;JoanBallester;DanCayan;MarianE.Melish;YoshikazuNakamura;RiteiUehara;JaneC.Burns(10November2011)."AssociationofKawasakidiseasewithtroposphericwindpatterns".ScientificReports.1:152.Bibcode:2011NatSR...1E.152R.doi:10.1038/srep00152.ISSN 2045-2322.PMC 3240972.PMID 22355668. ^Hsiang,S.M.;Meng,K.C.;Cane,M.A.(2011)."Civilconflictsareassociatedwiththeglobalclimate".Nature.476(7361):438–441.Bibcode:2011Natur.476..438H.doi:10.1038/nature10311.PMID 21866157.S2CID 4406478. ^QuirinSchiermeier(2011)."Climatecyclesdrivecivilwar".Nature.476:406–407.doi:10.1038/news.2011.501. ^França,Filipe;Ferreira,J;Vaz-de-Mello,FZ;Maia,LF;Berenguer,E;Palmeira,A;Fadini,R;Louzada,J;Braga,R;Oliveira,VH;Barlow,J(10February2020)."ElNiñoimpactsonhuman-modifiedtropicalforests:Consequencesfordungbeetlediversityandassociatedecologicalprocesses".Biotropica.52(1):252–262.doi:10.1111/btp.12756. ^França,FM;Benkwitt,CE;Peralta,G;Robinson,JPW;Graham,NAJ;Tylianakis,JM;Berenguer,E;Lees,AC;Ferreira,J;Louzada,J;Barlow,J(2020)."Climaticandlocalstressorinteractionsthreatentropicalforestsandcoralreefs".PhilosophicalTransactionsoftheRoyalSocietyB.375(1794):20190116.doi:10.1098/rstb.2019.0116.PMC 7017775.PMID 31983328. Furtherreading[edit] Caviedes,CésarN.(2001).ElNiñoinHistory:StormingThroughtheAges.Gainesville:UniversityPressofFlorida.ISBN 978-0-8130-2099-0. Fagan,BrianM.(1999).Floods,Famines,andEmperors:ElNiñoandtheFateofCivilizations.NewYork:BasicBooks.ISBN 978-0-7126-6478-3. Glantz,MichaelH.(2001).Currentsofchange.Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress.ISBN 978-0-521-78672-0. Philander,S.George(1990).ElNiño,LaNiñaandtheSouthernOscillation.SanDiego:AcademicPress.ISBN 978-0-12-553235-8. Kuenzer,C.;Zhao,D.;Scipal,K.;Sabel,D.;Naeimi,V.;Bartalis,Z.;Hasenauer,S.;Mehl,H.;Dech,S.;Waganer,W.(2009)."ElNiñosouthernoscillationinfluencesrepresentedinERSscatterometer-derivedsoilmoisturedata".AppliedGeography.29(4):463–477.doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2009.04.004. Li,J.;Xie,S.-P.;Cook,E.R.;Morales,M.;Christie,D.;Johnson,N.;Chen,F.;d'Arrigo,R.;Fowler,A.;Gou,X.;Fang,K.(2013)."ElNiñomodulationsoverthepastsevencenturies"(PDF).NatureClimateChange.3(9):822–826.Bibcode:2013NatCC...3..822L.doi:10.1038/nclimate1936.hdl:10722/189524. Externallinks[edit] WikimediaCommonshasmediarelatedtoElNiño. "CurrentmapofseasurfacetemperatureanomaliesinthePacificOcean".earth.nullschool.net. 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