Risk - Wikipedia

In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to ... Risk FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia Jumptonavigation Jumptosearch Probabilityoflossofsomethingofvalue Forotheruses,seeRisk(disambiguation). Insimpleterms,riskisthepossibilityofsomethingbadhappening.[1]Riskinvolvesuncertaintyabouttheeffects/implicationsofanactivitywithrespecttosomethingthathumansvalue(suchashealth,well-being,wealth,propertyortheenvironment),oftenfocusingonnegative,undesirableconsequences.[2]Manydifferentdefinitionshavebeenproposed.Theinternationalstandarddefinitionofriskforcommonunderstandingindifferentapplicationsis“effectofuncertaintyonobjectives”.[3] Theunderstandingofrisk,themethodsofassessmentandmanagement,thedescriptionsofriskandeventhedefinitionsofriskdifferindifferentpracticeareas(business,economics,environment,finance,informationtechnology,health,insurance,safety,securityetc).Thisarticleprovideslinkstomoredetailedarticlesontheseareas.Theinternationalstandardforriskmanagement,ISO31000,providesprinciplesandgenericguidelinesonmanagingrisksfacedbyorganizations.[4] Contents 1Definitionsofrisk 1.1OxfordEnglishDictionary 1.2InternationalOrganizationforStandardization 1.3Other 2Practiceareas 2.1Businessrisk 2.2Economicrisk 2.3Environmentalrisk 2.4Financialrisk 2.5Healthrisk 2.6Health,safety,andenvironmentrisks 2.7Informationtechnologyrisk 2.8Insurancerisk 2.9Occupationalrisk 2.10Projectrisk 2.11Safetyrisk 2.12Securityrisk 3Assessmentandmanagementofrisk 3.1Riskmanagement 3.2Riskassessment 3.3Riskidentification 3.4Riskanalysis 3.5Riskevaluationandriskcriteria 4Descriptionsofrisk 4.1Triplets 4.2Probabilitydistributions 4.3Expectedvalues 4.4Volatility 4.5Outcomefrequencies 4.6Relativerisk 5Psychologyofrisk 5.1Fearasintuitiveriskassessment 5.2Fear,anxietyandrisk 5.3Consequencesofanxiety 5.4Dreadrisk 5.5Anxietyandjudgmentalaccuracy 5.6Humanfactors 5.7Psychologyofrisktaking 6Otherconsiderations 6.1Riskanduncertainty 6.2MildVersusWildRisk 6.3Riskattitude,appetiteandtolerance 6.4Riskandautonomy 7Listofrelatedbooks 8Seealso 9References 10Bibliography 10.1Referredliterature 10.2Books 10.3Articlesandpapers 11Externallinks Definitionsofrisk[edit] OxfordEnglishDictionary[edit] Firefightersareexposedtorisksoffireandbuildingcollapseduringtheirwork TheOxfordEnglishDictionary(OED)citestheearliestuseofthewordinEnglish(inthespellingofrisquefromitsFrenchoriginal,'risque')asof1621,andthespellingasriskfrom1655.Whileincludingseveralotherdefinitions,theOED3rdeditiondefinesriskas: (Exposureto)thepossibilityofloss,injury,orotheradverseorunwelcomecircumstance;achanceorsituationinvolvingsuchapossibility.[5] TheCambridgeAdvancedLearner’sDictionarygivesasimplesummary,definingriskas“thepossibilityofsomethingbadhappening”.[1] InternationalOrganizationforStandardization[edit] TheInternationalOrganizationforStandardization(ISO)Guide73providesbasicvocabularytodevelopcommonunderstandingonriskmanagementconceptsandtermsacrossdifferentapplications.ISOGuide73:2009definesriskas: effectofuncertaintyonobjectives Note1:Aneffectisadeviationfromtheexpected–positiveornegative. Note2:Objectivescanhavedifferentaspects(suchasfinancial,healthandsafety,andenvironmentalgoals)andcanapplyatdifferentlevels(suchasstrategic,organization-wide,project,productandprocess). Note3:Riskisoftencharacterizedbyreferencetopotentialeventsandconsequencesoracombinationofthese. Note4:Riskisoftenexpressedintermsofacombinationoftheconsequencesofanevent(includingchangesincircumstances)andtheassociatedlikelihoodofoccurrence. Note5:Uncertaintyisthestate,evenpartial,ofdeficiencyofinformationrelatedto,understandingorknowledgeof,anevent,itsconsequence,orlikelihood.[3] Thisdefinitionwasdevelopedbyaninternationalcommitteerepresentingover30countriesandisbasedontheinputofseveralthousandsubjectmatterexperts.Itwasfirstadoptedin2002.Itscomplexityreflectsthedifficultyofsatisfyingfieldsthatusethetermriskindifferentways.Somerestrictthetermtonegativeimpacts(“downsiderisks”),whileothersincludepositiveimpacts(“upsiderisks”). ISO31000:2018“Riskmanagement—Guidelines”usesthesamedefinitionwithasimplersetofnotes.[4] Other[edit] Manyotherdefinitionsofriskhavebeeninfluential: “Sourceofharm”.Theearliestuseoftheword“risk”wasasasynonymforthemucholderword“hazard”,meaningapotentialsourceofharm.ThisdefinitioncomesfromBlount’s“Glossographia”(1661)[6]andwasthemaindefinitionintheOED1st(1914)and2nd(1989)editions.Modernequivalentsreferto“unwantedevents”[7]or“somethingbadthatmighthappen”.[1] “Chanceofharm”.ThisdefinitioncomesfromJohnson’s“DictionaryoftheEnglishLanguage”(1755),andhasbeenwidelyparaphrased,including“possibilityofloss”[5]or“probabilityofunwantedevents”.[7] “Uncertaintyaboutloss”.ThisdefinitioncomesfromWillett’s“EconomicTheoryofRiskandInsurance”(1901).[8]Thislinks“risk”to“uncertainty”,whichisabroadertermthanchanceorprobability. “Measurableuncertainty”.ThisdefinitioncomesfromKnight’s“Risk,UncertaintyandProfit”(1921).[9]Itallows“risk”tobeusedequallyforpositiveandnegativeoutcomes.Ininsurance,riskinvolvessituationswithunknownoutcomesbutknownprobabilitydistributions.[10] “Volatilityofreturn”.EquivalencebetweenriskandvarianceofreturnwasfirstidentifiedinMarkovitz’s“PortfolioSelection”(1952).[11]Infinance,volatilityofreturnisoftenequatedtorisk.[12] “Statisticallyexpectedloss”.TheexpectedvalueoflosswasusedtodefineriskbyWald(1939)inwhatisnowknownasdecisiontheory.[13]TheprobabilityofaneventmultipliedbyitsmagnitudewasproposedasadefinitionofriskfortheplanningoftheDeltaWorksin1953,afloodprotectionprogramintheNetherlands.[14]ItwasadoptedbytheUSNuclearRegulatoryCommission(1975),[15]andremainswidelyused.[7] “Likelihoodandseverityofevents”.The“triplet”definitionofriskas“scenarios,probabilitiesandconsequences”wasproposedbyKaplan&Garrick(1981).[16]Manydefinitionsrefertothelikelihood/probabilityofevents/effects/lossesofdifferentseverity/consequence,e.g.ISOGuide73Note4.[3] “Consequencesandassociateduncertainty”.ThiswasproposedbyKaplan&Garrick(1981).[16]ThisdefinitionispreferredinBayesiananalysis,whichseesriskasthecombinationofeventsanduncertaintiesaboutthem.[17] “Uncertaineventsaffectingobjectives”.ThisdefinitionwasadoptedbytheAssociationforProjectManagement(1997).[18][19]WithslightrewordingitbecamethedefinitioninISOGuide73.[3] “Uncertaintyofoutcome”.ThisdefinitionwasadoptedbytheUKCabinetOffice(2002)[20]toencourageinnovationtoimprovepublicservices.Itallowed“risk”todescribeeither“positiveopportunityornegativethreatofactionsandevents”. “Asset,threatandvulnerability”.ThisdefinitioncomesfromtheThreatAnalysisGroup(2010)inthecontextofcomputersecurity.[21] “Humaninteractionwithuncertainty”.ThisdefinitioncomesfromCline(2015)[22]inthecontextofadventureeducation. Someresolvethesedifferencesbyarguingthatthedefinitionofriskissubjective.Forexample: Nodefinitionisadvancedasthecorrectone,becausethereisnoonedefinitionthatissuitableforallproblems.Rather,thechoiceofdefinitionisapoliticalone,expressingsomeone’sviewsregardingtheimportanceofdifferentadverseeffectsinaparticularsituation.[23] TheSocietyforRiskAnalysisconcludesthat“experiencehasshownthattoagreeononeunifiedsetofdefinitionsisnotrealistic”.Thesolutionis“toallowfordifferentperspectivesonfundamentalconceptsandmakeadistinctionbetweenoverallqualitativedefinitionsandtheirassociatedmeasurements.”[2] Practiceareas[edit] Theunderstandingofrisk,thecommonmethodsofmanagement,themeasurementsofriskandeventhedefinitionofriskdifferindifferentpracticeareas.Thissectionprovideslinkstomoredetailedarticlesontheseareas. Businessrisk[edit] Businessrisksarisefromuncertaintyabouttheprofitofacommercialbusinessduetounwantedeventssuchaschangesintastes,changingpreferencesofconsumers,strikes,increasedcompetition,changesingovernmentpolicy,obsolescenceetc. Businessrisksarecontrolledusingtechniquesofriskmanagement.Inmanycasestheymaybemanagedbyintuitivestepstopreventormitigaterisks,byfollowingregulationsorstandardsofgoodpractice,orbyinsurance.Enterpriseriskmanagementincludesthemethodsandprocessesusedbyorganizationstomanagerisksandseizeopportunitiesrelatedtotheachievementoftheirobjectives. Economicrisk[edit] Economicsisconcernedwiththeproduction,distributionandconsumptionofgoodsandservices.Economicriskarisesfromuncertaintyabouteconomicoutcomes.Forexample,economicriskmaybethechancethatmacroeconomicconditionslikeexchangerates,governmentregulation,orpoliticalstabilitywillaffectaninvestmentoracompany’sprospects.[24] Ineconomics,asinfinance,riskisoftendefinedasquantifiableuncertaintyaboutgainsandlosses. Environmentalrisk[edit] Environmentalriskarisesfromenvironmentalhazardsorenvironmentalissues. Intheenvironmentalcontext,riskisdefinedas“Thechanceofharmfuleffectstohumanhealthortoecologicalsystems”.[25] Environmentalriskassessmentaimstoassesstheeffectsofstressors,oftenchemicals,onthelocalenvironment.[26] Financialrisk[edit] Mainarticle:Financialrisk Financeisconcernedwithmoneymanagementandacquiringfunds.[27]Financialriskarisesfromuncertaintyaboutfinancialreturns.Itincludesmarketrisk,creditrisk,liquidityriskandoperationalrisk. Infinance,riskisthepossibilitythattheactualreturnonaninvestmentwillbedifferentfromitsexpectedreturn.[28]Thisincludesnotonly"downsiderisk"(returnsbelowexpectations,includingthepossibilityoflosingsomeoralloftheoriginalinvestment)butalso"upsiderisk"(returnsthatexceedexpectations).InKnight’sdefinition,riskisoftendefinedasquantifiableuncertaintyaboutgainsandlosses.ThiscontrastswithKnightianuncertainty,whichcannotbequantified. Financialriskmodelingdeterminestheaggregateriskinafinancialportfolio.Modernportfoliotheorymeasuresriskusingthevariance(orstandarddeviation)ofassetprices.Morerecentriskmeasuresincludevalueatrisk. Becauseinvestorsaregenerallyriskaverse,investmentswithgreaterinherentriskmustpromisehigherexpectedreturns.[29] Financialriskmanagementusesfinancialinstrumentstomanageexposuretorisk.Itincludestheuseofahedgetooffsetrisksbyadoptingapositioninanopposingmarketorinvestment. Infinancialaudit,auditriskreferstothepotentialthatanauditreportmayfailtodetectmaterialmisstatementeitherduetoerrororfraud. Healthrisk[edit] Healthrisksarisefromdiseaseandotherbiologicalhazards. Epidemiologyisthestudyandanalysisofthedistribution,patternsanddeterminantsofhealthanddisease.Itisacornerstoneofpublichealth,andshapespolicydecisionsbyidentifyingriskfactorsfordiseaseandtargetsforpreventivehealthcare. Inthecontextofpublichealth,riskassessmentistheprocessofcharacterizingthenatureandlikelihoodofaharmfuleffecttoindividualsorpopulationsfromcertainhumanactivities.Healthriskassessmentcanbemostlyqualitativeorcanincludestatisticalestimatesofprobabilitiesforspecificpopulations. Ahealthriskassessment(alsoreferredtoasahealthriskappraisalandhealth&well-beingassessment)isaquestionnairescreeningtool,usedtoprovideindividualswithanevaluationoftheirhealthrisksandqualityoflife Health,safety,andenvironmentrisks[edit] Health,safety,andenvironment(HSE)areseparatepracticeareas;however,theyareoftenlinked.Thereasonistypicallytodowithorganizationalmanagementstructures;however,therearestronglinksamongthesedisciplines.Oneofthestrongestlinksisthatasingleriskeventmayhaveimpactsinallthreeareas,albeitoverdifferingtimescales.Forexample,theuncontrolledreleaseofradiationoratoxicchemicalmayhaveimmediateshort-termsafetyconsequences,moreprotractedhealthimpacts,andmuchlonger-termenvironmentalimpacts.EventssuchasChernobyl,forexample,causedimmediatedeaths,andinthelongerterm,deathsfromcancers,andleftalastingenvironmentalimpactleadingtobirthdefects,impactsonwildlife,etc. Informationtechnologyrisk[edit] Mainarticles:ITrisk,Computersecurity,ITriskmanagement,andInformationsecurity Informationtechnology(IT)istheuseofcomputerstostore,retrieve,transmit,andmanipulatedata.ITrisk(orcyberrisk)arisesfromthepotentialthatathreatmayexploitavulnerabilitytobreachsecurityandcauseharm.ITriskmanagementappliesriskmanagementmethodstoITtomanageITrisks.ComputersecurityistheprotectionofITsystemsbymanagingITrisks. Informationsecurityisthepracticeofprotectinginformationbymitigatinginformationrisks.WhileITriskisnarrowlyfocusedoncomputersecurity,informationrisksextendtootherformsofinformation(paper,microfilm). Insurancerisk[edit] Insuranceisarisktreatmentoptionwhichinvolvesrisksharing.Itcanbeconsideredasaformofcontingentcapitalandisakintopurchasinganoptioninwhichthebuyerpaysasmallpremiumtobeprotectedfromapotentiallargeloss. Insuranceriskisoftentakenbyinsurancecompanies,whothenbearapoolofrisksincludingmarketrisk,creditrisk,operationalrisk,interestraterisk,mortalityrisk,longevityrisks,etc.[30] Theterm“risk”hasalonghistoryininsuranceandhasacquiredseveralspecialiseddefinitions,including“thesubject-matterofaninsurancecontract”,“aninsuredperil”aswellasthemorecommon“possibilityofaneventoccurringwhichcausesinjuryorloss”.[31] Occupationalrisk[edit] Mainarticle:Occupationalsafetyandhealth Occupationalhealthandsafetyisconcernedwithoccupationalhazardsexperiencedintheworkplace. TheOccupationalHealthandSafetyAssessmentSeries(OHSAS)standardOHSAS18001in1999definedriskasthe“combinationofthelikelihoodandconsequence(s)ofaspecifiedhazardouseventoccurring”.In2018thiswasreplacedbyISO45001“Occupationalhealthandsafetymanagementsystems”,whichusetheISOGuide73definition. Projectrisk[edit] Aprojectisanindividualorcollaborativeundertakingplannedtoachieveaspecificaim.Projectriskisdefinedas,"anuncertaineventorconditionthat,ifitoccurs,hasapositiveornegativeeffectonaproject’sobjectives”.Projectriskmanagementaimstoincreasethelikelihoodandimpactofpositiveeventsanddecreasethelikelihoodandimpactofnegativeeventsintheproject.[32][33] Safetyrisk[edit] Harborsignwarningvisitorsthatuseofthewalkwayis"atyourownrisk" Safetyisconcernedwithavarietyofhazardsthatmayresultinaccidentscausingharmtopeople,propertyandtheenvironment.Inthesafetyfield,riskistypicallydefinedasthe“likelihoodandseverityofhazardousevents”.Safetyrisksarecontrolledusingtechniquesofriskmanagement. Ahighreliabilityorganisation(HRO)involvescomplexoperationsinenvironmentswherecatastrophicaccidentscouldoccur.Examplesincludeaircraftcarriers,airtrafficcontrol,aerospaceandnuclearpowerstations.SomeHROsmanageriskinahighlyquantifiedway.ThetechniqueisusuallyreferredtoasProbabilisticRiskAssessment(PRA).SeeWASH-1400foranexampleofthisapproach.Theincidenceratecanalsobereducedduetotheprovisionofbetteroccupationalhealthandsafetyprogrammes[34] Securityrisk[edit] Securityisfreedomfrom,orresilienceagainst,potentialharmcausedbyothers. Asecurityriskis"anyeventthatcouldresultinthecompromiseoforganizationalassetsi.e.theunauthorizeduse,loss,damage,disclosureormodificationoforganizationalassetsfortheprofit,personalinterestorpoliticalinterestsofindividuals,groupsorotherentities."[35] Securityriskmanagementinvolvesprotectionofassetsfromharmcausedbydeliberateacts. Assessmentandmanagementofrisk[edit] Riskmanagement[edit] Mainarticles:RiskmanagementandOperationalriskmanagement Riskisubiquitousinallareasoflifeandweallmanagetheserisks,consciouslyorintuitively,whetherwearemanagingalargeorganizationorsimplycrossingtheroad.Intuitiveriskmanagementisaddressedunderthepsychologyofriskbelow. Riskmanagementreferstoasystematicapproachtomanagingrisks,andsometimestotheprofessionthatdoesthis.Ageneraldefinitionisthatriskmanagementconsistsof“coordinatedactivitiestodirectandcontrolanorganizationwithregardtorisk".[3] ISO31000,theinternationalstandardforriskmanagement,[4]describesariskmanagementprocessthatconsistsofthefollowingelements: Communicatingandconsulting Establishingthescope,contextandcriteria Riskassessment-recognisingandcharacterisingrisks,andevaluatingtheirsignificancetosupportdecision-making.Thisincludesriskidentification,riskanalysisandriskevaluation. Risktreatment-selectingandimplementingoptionsforaddressingrisk. Monitoringandreviewing Recordingandreporting Ingeneral,theaimofriskmanagementistoassistorganizationsin“settingstrategy,achievingobjectivesandmakinginformeddecisions”.[4]Theoutcomesshouldbe“scientificallysound,cost-effective,integratedactionsthat[treat]riskswhiletakingintoaccountsocial,cultural,ethical,political,andlegalconsiderations”.[36] Incontextswhererisksarealwaysharmful,riskmanagementaimsto“reduceorpreventrisks”.[36]Inthesafetyfielditaims“toprotectemployees,thegeneralpublic,theenvironment,andcompanyassets,whileavoidingbusinessinterruptions”.[37] Fororganizationswhosedefinitionofriskincludes“upside”aswellas“downside”risks,riskmanagementis“asmuchaboutidentifyingopportunitiesasavoidingormitigatinglosses”.[38]Ittheninvolves“gettingtherightbalancebetweeninnovationandchangeontheonehand,andavoidanceofshocksandcrisesontheother”.[39] Riskassessment[edit] Mainarticle:Riskassessment Riskassessmentisasystematicapproachtorecognisingandcharacterisingrisks,andevaluatingtheirsignificance,inordertosupportdecisionsabouthowtomanagethem.ISO31000definesitintermsofitscomponentsas“theoverallprocessofriskidentification,riskanalysisandriskevaluation”.[4] Riskassessmentcanbequalitative,semi-quantitativeorquantitative:[4] Qualitativeapproachesarebasedonqualitativedescriptionsofrisksandrelyonjudgementtoevaluatetheirsignificance. Semi-quantitativeapproachesusenumericalratingscalestogrouptheconsequencesandprobabilitiesofeventsintobandssuchas“high”,“medium”and“low”.Theymayuseariskmatrixtoevaluatethesignificanceofparticularcombinationsofprobabilityandconsequence. Quantitativeapproaches,includingQuantitativeriskassessment(QRA)andprobabilisticriskassessment(PRA),estimateprobabilitiesandconsequencesinappropriateunits,combinethemintoriskmetrics,andevaluatethemusingnumericalriskcriteria. Thespecificstepsvarywidelyindifferentpracticeareas. Riskidentification[edit] Riskidentificationis“theprocessoffinding,recognizingandrecordingrisks”.It“involvestheidentificationofrisksources,events,theircausesandtheirpotentialconsequences.”[3] ISO31000describesitasthefirststepinariskassessmentprocess,precedingriskanalysisandriskevaluation.[4]Insafetycontexts,whererisksourcesareknownashazards,thisstepisknownas“hazardidentification”.[40] Therearemanydifferentmethodsforidentifyingrisks,including:[41] Checklistsortaxonomiesbasedonpastdataortheoreticalmodels. Evidence-basedmethods,suchasliteraturereviewsandanalysisofhistoricaldata. Team-basedmethodsthatsystematicallyconsiderpossibledeviationsfromnormaloperations,e.g.HAZOP,FMEAandSWIFT. Empiricalmethods,suchastestingandmodellingtoidentifywhatmighthappenunderparticularcircumstances. Techniquesencouragingimaginativethinkingaboutpossibilitiesofthefuture,suchasscenarioanalysis. Expert-elicitationmethodssuchasbrainstorming,interviewsandaudits. Sometimes,riskidentificationmethodsarelimitedtofindinganddocumentingrisksthataretobeanalysedandevaluatedelsewhere.However,manyriskidentificationmethodsalsoconsiderwhethercontrolmeasuresaresufficientandrecommendimprovements.Hencetheyfunctionasstand-alonequalitativeriskassessmenttechniques. Riskanalysis[edit] Riskanalysisisaboutdevelopinganunderstandingoftherisk.ISOdefinesitas“theprocesstocomprehendthenatureofriskandtodeterminethelevelofrisk”.[3]IntheISO31000riskassessmentprocess,riskanalysisfollowsriskidentificationandprecedesriskevaluation.However,thesedistinctionsarenotalwaysfollowed. Riskanalysismayinclude:[41] Determiningthesources,causesanddriversofrisk Investigatingtheeffectivenessofexistingcontrols Analysingpossibleconsequencesandtheirlikelihood Understandinginteractionsanddependenciesbetweenrisks Determiningmeasuresofrisk Verifyingandvalidatingresults Uncertaintyandsensitivityanalysis Riskanalysisoftenusesdataontheprobabilitiesandconsequencesofpreviousevents.Wheretherehavebeenfewsuchevents,orinthecontextofsystemsthatarenotyetoperationalandthereforehavenopreviousexperience,variousanalyticalmethodsmaybeusedtoestimatetheprobabilitiesandconsequences: Proxyoranaloguedatafromothercontexts,presumedtobesimilarinsomeaspectsofrisk. Theoreticalmodels,suchasMonteCarlosimulationandQuantitativeriskassessmentsoftware. Logicalmodels,suchasBayesiannetworks,faulttreeanalysisandeventtreeanalysis Expertjudgement,suchasabsoluteprobabilityjudgementortheDelphimethod. Riskevaluationandriskcriteria[edit] Riskevaluationinvolvescomparingestimatedlevelsofriskagainstriskcriteriatodeterminethesignificanceoftheriskandmakedecisionsaboutrisktreatmentactions.[41] Inmostactivities,riskscanbereducedbyaddingfurthercontrolsorothertreatmentoptions,buttypicallythisincreasescostorinconvenience.Itisrarelypossibletoeliminaterisksaltogetherwithoutdiscontinuingtheactivity.Sometimesitisdesirabletoincreaseriskstosecurevaluedbenefits.Riskcriteriaareintendedtoguidedecisionsontheseissues.[42] Typesofcriteriainclude:[41] Criteriathatdefinethelevelofriskthatcanbeacceptedinpursuitofobjectives,sometimesknownasriskappetite,andevaluatedbyrisk/rewardanalysis.[12] Criteriathatdeterminewhetherfurthercontrolsareneeded,suchasbenefit-costratio. Criteriathatdecidebetweendifferentriskmanagementoptions,suchasmultiple-criteriadecisionanalysis. Thesimplestframeworkforriskcriteriaisasinglelevelwhichdividesacceptablerisksfromthosethatneedtreatment.Thisgivesattractivelysimpleresultsbutdoesnotreflecttheuncertaintiesinvolvedbothinestimatingrisksandindefiningthecriteria. Thetolerabilityofriskframework,developedbytheUKHealthandSafetyExecutive,dividesrisksintothreebands:[43] Unacceptablerisks–onlypermittedinexceptionalcircumstances. Tolerablerisks–tobekeptaslowasreasonablypracticable(ALARP),takingintoaccountthecostsandbenefitsoffurtherriskreduction. Broadlyacceptablerisks–notnormallyrequiringfurtherreduction. Descriptionsofrisk[edit] Therearemanydifferentriskmetricsthatcanbeusedtodescribeor“measure”risk. Triplets[edit] Riskisoftenconsideredtobeasetoftriplets[16](alsodescribedasavector[12]): R =< s i , p i , x i > {\displaystyle{\text{R}}=} fori=1,2,....,N where: s i {\displaystyle{\text{s}}_{\text{i}}} isascenariodescribingapossibleevent p i {\displaystyle{\text{p}}_{\text{i}}} istheprobabilityofthescenario x i {\displaystyle{\text{x}}_{\text{i}}} istheconsequenceofthescenario N {\displaystyle{\text{N}}} isthenumberofscenarioschosentodescribetherisk Thesearetheanswerstothethreefundamentalquestionsaskedbyariskanalysis: Whatcanhappen? Howlikelyisittohappen? Ifitdoeshappen,whatwouldtheconsequencesbe? Risksexpressedinthiswaycanbeshowninatableorriskregister.Theymaybequantitativeorqualitative,andcanincludepositiveaswellasnegativeconsequences. Thescenarioscanbeplottedinaconsequence/likelihoodmatrix(orriskmatrix).Thesetypicallydivideconsequencesandlikelihoodsinto3to5bands.Differentscalescanbeusedfordifferenttypesofconsequences(e.g.finance,safety,environmentetc.),andcanincludepositiveaswellasnegativeconsequences.[41] Anupdatedversion[17]recommendsthefollowinggeneraldescriptionofrisk: R = ( A,C,U,P,K ) {\displaystyle{\text{R}}=({\text{A,C,U,P,K}})} where: A {\displaystyle{\text{A}}} isaneventthatmightoccur C {\displaystyle{\text{C}}} istheconsequencesoftheevent U {\displaystyle{\text{U}}} isanassessmentofuncertainties P {\displaystyle{\text{P}}} isaknowledge-basedprobabilityoftheevent K {\displaystyle{\text{K}}} isthebackgroundknowledgethatUandParebasedon Probabilitydistributions[edit] Ifalltheconsequencesareexpressedinthesameunits(orcanbeconvertedintoaconsistentlossfunction),theriskcanbeexpressedasaprobabilitydensityfunctiondescribingthe“uncertaintyaboutoutcome”: R = p(x) {\displaystyle{\text{R}}={\text{p(x)}}} Thiscanalsobeexpressedasacumulativedistributionfunction(CDF)(orScurve[41]). Onewayofhighlightingthetailofthisdistributionisbyshowingtheprobabilityofexceedinggivenlosses,knownasacomplementarycumulativedistributionfunction,plottedonlogarithmicscales.Examplesincludefrequency-number(FN)diagrams,showingtheannualfrequencyofexceedinggivennumbersoffatalities.[41] Asimplewayofsummarisingthesizeofthedistribution’stailisthelosswithacertainprobabilityofexceedance,suchastheValueatRisk. Expectedvalues[edit] Riskisoftenmeasuredastheexpectedvalueoftheloss.Thiscombinestheprobabilitiesandconsequencesintoasinglevalue.SeealsoExpectedutility.ThesimplestcaseisabinarypossibilityofAccidentorNoaccident.Theassociatedformulaforcalculatingriskisthen: R = ( probabilityoftheaccidentoccurring ) × ( expectedlossincaseoftheaccident ) {\displaystyle{\text{R}}=({\text{probabilityoftheaccidentoccurring}})\times({\text{expectedlossincaseoftheaccident}})} Forexample,ifthereisaprobabilityof0.01ofsufferinganaccidentwithalossof$1000,thentotalriskisalossof$10,theproductof0.01and$1000. Inasituationwithseveralpossibleaccidentscenarios,totalriskisthesumoftherisksforeachscenario,providedthattheoutcomesarecomparable: R = ∑ i=1toN p i x i {\displaystyle{\text{R}}=\sum_{\text{i=1toN}}{\text{p}}_{\text{i}}{\text{x}}_{\text{i}}} (termsdefinedabove) Instatisticaldecisiontheory,theriskfunctionisdefinedastheexpectedvalueofagivenlossfunctionasafunctionofthedecisionruleusedtomakedecisionsinthefaceofuncertainty. Adisadvantageofdefiningriskastheproductofimpactandprobabilityisthatitpresumes,unrealistically,thatdecision-makersarerisk-neutral.Arisk-neutralperson'sutilityisproportionaltotheexpectedvalueofthepayoff.Forexample,arisk-neutralpersonwouldconsider20%chanceofwinning$1 millionexactlyasdesirableasgettingacertain$200,000.However,mostdecision-makersarenotactuallyrisk-neutralandwouldnotconsidertheseequivalentchoices.[12] Volatility[edit] Infinance,volatilityisthedegreeofvariationofatradingpriceovertime,usuallymeasuredbythestandarddeviationoflogarithmicreturns.Modernportfoliotheorymeasuresriskusingthevariance(orstandarddeviation)ofassetprices.Theriskisthen: R = σ {\displaystyle{\text{R}}=\sigma} Thebetacoefficientmeasuresthevolatilityofanindividualassettooverallmarketchanges.Thisistheasset’scontributiontosystematicrisk,whichcannotbeeliminatedbyportfoliodiversification.Itisthecovariancebetweentheasset’sreturnriandthemarketreturnrm,expressedasafractionofthemarketvariance:[44] β i = σ i m σ m 2 = C o v ( r i , r m ) V a r ( r m ) {\displaystyle\beta_{i}={\frac{\sigma_{im}}{\sigma_{m}^{2}}}={\frac{\mathrm{Cov}(r_{i},r_{m})}{\mathrm{Var}(r_{m})}}} Outcomefrequencies[edit] Risksofdiscreteeventssuchasaccidentsareoftenmeasuredasoutcomefrequencies,orexpectedratesofspecificlosseventsperunittime.Whensmall,frequenciesarenumericallysimilartoprobabilities,buthavedimensionsof[1/time]andcansumtomorethan1.Typicaloutcomesexpressedthiswayinclude:[45] Individualrisk-thefrequencyofagivenlevelofharmtoanindividual.[46]Itoftenreferstotheexpectedannualprobabilityofdeath.Whereriskcriteriarefertotheindividualrisk,theriskassessmentmustusethismetric. Group(orsocietalrisk)–therelationshipbetweenthefrequencyandthenumberofpeoplesufferingharm.[46] Frequenciesofpropertydamageortotalloss. Frequenciesofenvironmentaldamagesuchasoilspills. Relativerisk[edit] Inhealth,therelativeriskistheratiooftheprobabilityofanoutcomeinanexposedgrouptotheprobabilityofanoutcomeinanunexposedgroup. Psychologyofrisk[edit] Thisarticleincludesalistofgeneralreferences,butitlackssufficientcorrespondinginlinecitations.Pleasehelptoimprovethisarticlebyintroducingmoreprecisecitations.(April2020)(Learnhowandwhentoremovethistemplatemessage) Fearasintuitiveriskassessment[edit] Peoplemayrelyontheirfearandhesitationtokeepthemoutofthemostprofoundlyunknowncircumstances.Fearisaresponsetoperceiveddanger.Riskcouldbesaidtobethewaywecollectivelymeasureandsharethis"truefear"—afusionofrationaldoubt,irrationalfear,andasetofunquantifiedbiasesfromourownexperience. Thefieldofbehaviouralfinancefocusesonhumanrisk-aversion,asymmetricregret,andotherwaysthathumanfinancialbehaviourvariesfromwhatanalystscall"rational".Riskinthatcaseisthedegreeofuncertaintyassociatedwithareturnonanasset.Recognizingandrespectingtheirrationalinfluencesonhumandecisionmakingmaydomuchtoreducedisasterscausedbynaiveriskassessmentsthatpresumerationalitybutinfactmerelyfusemanysharedbiases. Fear,anxietyandrisk[edit] Accordingtoonesetofdefinitions,fearisafleetingemotionascribedtoaparticularobject,whileanxietyisatraitoffear(thisisreferringto"traitanxiety",asdistinctfromhowtheterm"anxiety"isgenerallyused)thatlastslongerandisnotattributedtoaspecificstimulus(theseparticulardefinitionsarenotusedbyallauthorscitedonthispage).[47]Somestudiesshowalinkbetweenanxiousbehaviourandrisk(thechancethatanoutcomewillhaveanunfavorableresult).[48]JosephForgasintroducedvalencebasedresearchwhereemotionsaregroupedaseitherpositiveornegative(LernerandKeltner,2000).Positiveemotions,suchashappiness,arebelievedtohavemoreoptimisticriskassessmentsandnegativeemotions,suchasanger,havepessimisticriskassessments.Asanemotionwithanegativevalence,fear,andthereforeanxiety,haslongbeenassociatedwithnegativeriskperceptions.UnderthemorerecentappraisaltendencyframeworkofJenniferLerneretal.,whichrefutesForgas'notionofvalenceandpromotestheideathatspecificemotionshavedistinctiveinfluencesonjudgments,fearisstillrelatedtopessimisticexpectations.[49] Psychologistshavedemonstratedthatincreasesinanxietyandincreasesinriskperceptionarerelatedandpeoplewhoarehabituatedtoanxietyexperiencethisawarenessofriskmoreintenselythannormalindividuals.[50]Indecision-making,anxietypromotestheuseofbiasesandquickthinkingtoevaluaterisk.Thisisreferredtoasaffect-as-informationaccordingtoClore,1983.However,theaccuracyoftheseriskperceptionswhenmakingchoicesisnotknown.[51] Consequencesofanxiety[edit] Experimentalstudiesshowthatbriefsurgesinanxietyarecorrelatedwithsurgesingeneralriskperception.[51]Anxietyexistswhenthepresenceofthreatisperceived(ManerandSchmidt,2006).[50]Asriskperceptionincreases,itstaysrelatedtotheparticularsourceimpactingthemoodchangeasopposedtospreadingtounrelatedriskfactors.[51]Thisincreasedawarenessofathreatissignificantlymoreemphasisedinpeoplewhoareconditionedtoanxiety.[52]Forexample,anxiousindividualswhoarepredisposedtogeneratingreasonsfornegativeresultstendtoexhibitpessimism.[52]Also,findingssuggestthattheperceptionofalackofcontrolandalowerinclinationtoparticipateinriskydecision-making(acrossvariousbehaviouralcircumstances)isassociatedwithindividualsexperiencingrelativelyhighlevelsoftraitanxiety.[50]Inthepreviousinstance,thereissupportingclinicalresearchthatlinksemotionalevaluation(ofcontrol),theanxietythatisfeltandtheoptionofriskavoidance.[50] Therearevariousviewspresentedthatanxious/fearfulemotionscausepeopletoaccessinvoluntaryresponsesandjudgmentswhenmakingdecisionsthatinvolverisk.JoshuaA.Hemmerichetal.probesdeeperintoanxietyanditsimpactonchoicesbyexploring"risk-as-feelings"whicharequick,automatic,andnaturalreactionstodangerthatarebasedonemotions.Thisnotionissupportedbyanexperimentthatengagesphysiciansinasimulatedperiloussurgicalprocedure.Itwasdemonstratedthatameasurableamountoftheparticipants'anxietyaboutpatientoutcomeswasrelatedtoprevious(experimentallycreated)regretandworryandultimatelycausedthephysicianstobeledbytheirfeelingsoveranyinformationorguidelinesprovidedduringthemocksurgery.Additionally,theiremotionallevels,adjustedalongwiththesimulatedpatientstatus,suggestthatanxietylevelandtherespectivedecisionmadearecorrelatedwiththetypeofbadoutcomethatwasexperiencedintheearlierpartoftheexperiment.[53]Similarly,anotherviewofanxietyanddecision-makingisdispositionalanxietywhereemotionalstates,ormoods,arecognitiveandprovideinformationaboutfuturepitfallsandrewards(ManerandSchmidt,2006).Whenexperiencinganxiety,individualsdrawfrompersonaljudgmentsreferredtoaspessimisticoutcomeappraisals.Theseemotionspromotebiasesforriskavoidanceandpromoterisktoleranceindecision-making.[52] Dreadrisk[edit] Itiscommonforpeopletodreadsomerisksbutnotothers:Theytendtobeveryafraidofepidemicdiseases,nuclearpowerplantfailures,andplaneaccidentsbutarerelativelyunconcernedaboutsomehighlyfrequentanddeadlyevents,suchastrafficcrashes,householdaccidents,andmedicalerrors.Onekeydistinctionofdreadfulrisksseemstobetheirpotentialforcatastrophicconsequences,[54]threateningtokillalargenumberofpeoplewithinashortperiodoftime.[55]Forexample,immediatelyafterthe11Septemberattacks,manyAmericanswereafraidtoflyandtooktheircarinstead,adecisionthatledtoasignificantincreaseinthenumberoffatalcrashesinthetimeperiodfollowingthe9/11eventcomparedwiththesametimeperiodbeforetheattacks.[56][57] Differenthypotheseshavebeenproposedtoexplainwhypeoplefeardreadrisks.First,thepsychometricparadigm[54]suggeststhathighlackofcontrol,highcatastrophicpotential,andsevereconsequencesaccountfortheincreasedriskperceptionandanxietyassociatedwithdreadrisks.Second,becausepeopleestimatethefrequencyofariskbyrecallinginstancesofitsoccurrencefromtheirsocialcircleorthemedia,theymayovervaluerelativelyrarebutdramaticrisksbecauseoftheiroverpresenceandundervaluefrequent,lessdramaticrisks.[57]Third,accordingtothepreparednesshypothesis,peoplearepronetofeareventsthathavebeenparticularlythreateningtosurvivalinhumanevolutionaryhistory.[58]Giventhatinmostofhumanevolutionaryhistorypeoplelivedinrelativelysmallgroups,rarelyexceeding100people,[59]adreadrisk,whichkillsmanypeopleatonce,couldpotentiallywipeoutone'swholegroup.Indeed,researchfound[60]thatpeople'sfearpeaksforriskskillingaround100peoplebutdoesnotincreaseiflargergroupsarekilled.Fourth,fearingdreadriskscanbeanecologicallyrationalstrategy.[61]Besideskillingalargenumberofpeopleatasinglepointintime,dreadrisksreducethenumberofchildrenandyoungadultswhowouldhavepotentiallyproducedoffspring.Accordingly,peoplearemoreconcernedaboutriskskillingyounger,andhencemorefertile,groups.[62] Anxietyandjudgmentalaccuracy[edit] Therelationshipbetweenhigherlevelsofriskperceptionand"judgmentalaccuracy"inanxiousindividualsremainsunclear(JosephI.Constans,2001).Thereisachancethat"judgmentalaccuracy"iscorrelatedwithheightenedanxiety.Constansconductedastudytoexaminehowworrypropensity(andcurrentmoodandtraitanxiety)mightinfluencecollegestudent'sestimationoftheirperformanceonanupcomingexam,andthestudyfoundthatworrypropensitypredictedsubjectiveriskbias(errorsintheirriskassessments),evenaftervarianceattributabletocurrentmoodandtraitanxietyhadbeenremoved.[51]Anotherexperimentsuggeststhattraitanxietyisassociatedwithpessimisticriskappraisals(heightenedperceptionsoftheprobabilityanddegreeofsufferingassociatedwithanegativeexperience),whilecontrollingfordepression.[50] Humanfactors[edit] Mainarticles:DecisiontheoryandProspecttheory Oneofthegrowingareasoffocusinriskmanagementisthefieldofhumanfactorswherebehaviouralandorganizationalpsychologyunderpinourunderstandingofriskbaseddecisionmaking.Thisfieldconsidersquestionssuchas"howdowemakeriskbaseddecisions?","whyareweirrationallymorescaredofsharksandterroriststhanweareofmotorvehiclesandmedications?" Indecisiontheory,regret(andanticipationofregret)canplayasignificantpartindecision-making,distinctfromriskaversion[63][64](preferringthestatusquoincaseonebecomesworseoff). Framing[65]isafundamentalproblemwithallformsofriskassessment.Inparticular,becauseofboundedrationality(ourbrainsgetoverloaded,sowetakementalshortcuts),theriskofextremeeventsisdiscountedbecausetheprobabilityistoolowtoevaluateintuitively.Asanexample,oneoftheleadingcausesofdeathisroadaccidentscausedbydrunkdriving–partlybecauseanygivendriverframestheproblembylargelyortotallyignoringtheriskofaseriousorfatalaccident. Forinstance,anextremelydisturbingevent(anattackbyhijacking,ormoralhazards)maybeignoredinanalysisdespitethefactithasoccurredandhasanonzeroprobability.Or,aneventthateveryoneagreesisinevitablemayberuledoutofanalysisduetogreedoranunwillingnesstoadmitthatitisbelievedtobeinevitable.Thesehumantendenciesforerrorandwishfulthinkingoftenaffecteventhemostrigorousapplicationsofthescientificmethodandareamajorconcernofthephilosophyofscience. Alldecision-makingunderuncertaintymustconsidercognitivebias,culturalbias,andnotationalbias:Nogroupofpeopleassessingriskisimmuneto"groupthink":acceptanceofobviouslywronganswerssimplybecauseitissociallypainfultodisagree,wherethereareconflictsofinterest. Framinginvolvesotherinformationthataffectstheoutcomeofariskydecision.Therightprefrontalcortexhasbeenshowntotakeamoreglobalperspective[66]whilegreaterleftprefrontalactivityrelatestolocalorfocalprocessing.[67] FromtheTheoryofLeakyModules[68]McElroyandSetaproposedthattheycouldpredictablyaltertheframingeffectbytheselectivemanipulationofregionalprefrontalactivitywithfingertappingormonaurallistening.[69]Theresultwasasexpected.Rightwardtappingorlisteninghadtheeffectofnarrowingattentionsuchthattheframewasignored.Thisisapracticalwayofmanipulatingregionalcorticalactivationtoaffectriskydecisions,especiallybecausedirectedtappingorlisteningiseasilydone. Psychologyofrisktaking[edit] Agrowingareaofresearchhasbeentoexaminevariouspsychologicalaspectsofrisktaking.Researcherstypicallyrunrandomisedexperimentswithatreatmentandcontrolgrouptoascertaintheeffectofdifferentpsychologicalfactorsthatmaybeassociatedwithrisktaking.Thus,positiveandnegativefeedbackaboutpastrisktakingcanaffectfuturerisktaking.Inanexperiment,peoplewhowereledtobelievetheyareverycompetentatdecisionmakingsawmoreopportunitiesinariskychoiceandtookmorerisks,whilethoseledtobelievetheywerenotverycompetentsawmorethreatsandtookfewerrisks.[70] Otherconsiderations[edit] Riskanduncertainty[edit] InhisseminalworkRisk,Uncertainty,andProfit,FrankKnight(1921)establishedthedistinctionbetweenriskanduncertainty. ...UncertaintymustbetakeninasenseradicallydistinctfromthefamiliarnotionofRisk,fromwhichithasneverbeenproperlyseparated.Theterm"risk,"aslooselyusedineverydayspeechandineconomicdiscussion,reallycoverstwothingswhich,functionallyatleast,intheircausalrelationstothephenomenaofeconomicorganization,arecategoricallydifferent....Theessentialfactisthat"risk"meansinsomecasesaquantitysusceptibleofmeasurement,whileatothertimesitissomethingdistinctlynotofthischaracter;andtherearefar-reachingandcrucialdifferencesinthebearingsofthephenomenondependingonwhichofthetwoisreallypresentandoperating....Itwillappearthatameasurableuncertainty,or"risk"proper,asweshallusetheterm,issofardifferentfromanunmeasurableonethatitisnotineffectanuncertaintyatall.We...accordinglyrestricttheterm"uncertainty"tocasesofthenon-quantitivetype.:[71] Thus,Knightianuncertaintyisimmeasurable,notpossibletocalculate,whileintheKnightiansenseriskismeasurable. AnotherdistinctionbetweenriskanduncertaintyisproposedbyDouglasHubbard:[72][12] Uncertainty:Thelackofcompletecertainty,thatis,theexistenceofmorethanonepossibility.The"true"outcome/state/result/valueisnotknown. Measurementofuncertainty:Asetofprobabilitiesassignedtoasetofpossibilities.Example:"Thereisa60%chancethismarketwilldoubleinfiveyears" Risk:Astateofuncertaintywheresomeofthepossibilitiesinvolvealoss,catastrophe,orotherundesirableoutcome. Measurementofrisk:Asetofpossibilitieseachwithquantifiedprobabilitiesandquantifiedlosses.Example:"Thereisa40%chancetheproposedoilwellwillbedrywithalossof$12millioninexploratorydrillingcosts". Inthissense,onemayhaveuncertaintywithoutriskbutnotriskwithoutuncertainty.Wecanbeuncertainaboutthewinnerofacontest,butunlesswehavesomepersonalstakeinit,wehavenorisk.Ifwebetmoneyontheoutcomeofthecontest,thenwehavearisk.Inbothcasestherearemorethanoneoutcome.Themeasureofuncertaintyrefersonlytotheprobabilitiesassignedtooutcomes,whilethemeasureofriskrequiresbothprobabilitiesforoutcomesandlossesquantifiedforoutcomes. MildVersusWildRisk[edit] BenoitMandelbrotdistinguishedbetween"mild"and"wild"riskandarguedthatriskassessmentandanalysismustbefundamentallydifferentforthetwotypesofrisk.[73]Mildriskfollowsnormalornear-normalprobabilitydistributions,issubjecttoregressiontothemeanandthelawoflargenumbers,andisthereforerelativelypredictable.Wildriskfollowsfat-taileddistributions,e.g.,Paretoorpower-lawdistributions,issubjecttoregressiontothetail(infinitemeanorvariance,renderingthelawoflargenumbersinvalidorineffective),andisthereforedifficultorimpossibletopredict.Acommonerrorinriskassessmentandanalysisistounderestimatethewildnessofrisk,assumingrisktobemildwheninfactitiswild,whichmustbeavoidedifriskassessmentandanalysisaretobevalidandreliable,accordingtoMandelbrot. Riskattitude,appetiteandtolerance[edit] Mainarticles:RiskaversionandRiskcompensation Thetermsriskattitude,appetite,andtoleranceareoftenusedsimilarlytodescribeanorganisation'sorindividual'sattitudetowardsrisk-taking.One'sattitudemaybedescribedasrisk-averse,risk-neutral,orrisk-seeking.Risktolerancelooksatacceptable/unacceptabledeviationsfromwhatisexpected.[clarificationneeded]Riskappetitelooksathowmuchriskoneiswillingtoaccept.Therecanstillbedeviationsthatarewithinariskappetite.Forexample,recentresearchfindsthatinsuredindividualsaresignificantlylikelytodivestfromriskyassetholdingsinresponsetoadeclineinhealth,controllingforvariablessuchasincome,age,andout-of-pocketmedicalexpenses.[74] Gamblingisarisk-increasinginvestment,whereinmoneyonhandisriskedforapossiblelargereturn,butwiththepossibilityoflosingitall.Purchasingalotteryticketisaveryriskyinvestmentwithahighchanceofnoreturnandasmallchanceofaveryhighreturn.Incontrast,puttingmoneyinabankatadefinedrateofinterestisarisk-averseactionthatgivesaguaranteedreturnofasmallgainandprecludesotherinvestmentswithpossiblyhighergain.Thepossibilityofgettingnoreturnonaninvestmentisalsoknownastherateofruin. Riskcompensationisatheorywhichsuggeststhatpeopletypicallyadjusttheirbehaviorinresponsetotheperceivedlevelofrisk,becomingmorecarefulwheretheysensegreaterriskandlesscarefuliftheyfeelmoreprotected.[75]Bywayofexample,ithasbeenobservedthatmotoristsdrovefasterwhenwearingseatbeltsandclosertothevehicleinfrontwhenthevehicleswerefittedwithanti-lockbrakes. Riskandautonomy[edit] Theexperienceofmanypeoplewhorelyonhumanservicesforsupportisthat'risk'isoftenusedasareasontopreventthemfromgainingfurtherindependenceorfullyaccessingthecommunity,andthattheseservicesareoftenunnecessarilyriskaverse.[76]"People'sautonomyusedtobecompromisedbyinstitutionwalls,nowit'stoooftenourriskmanagementpractices",accordingtoJohnO'Brien.[77]MichaelFischerandEwanFerlie(2013)findthatcontradictionsbetweenformalriskcontrolsandtheroleofsubjectivefactorsinhumanservices(suchastheroleofemotionsandideology)canundermineservicevalues,soproducingtensionsandevenintractableand'heated'conflict.[78] Listofrelatedbooks[edit] Thisisalistofbooksaboutriskissues. Title Author(s) Year AcceptableRisk BaruchFischhoff,SarahLichtenstein,PaulSlovic,StevenL.Derby,andRalphKeeney 1984 AgainsttheGods:TheRemarkableStoryofRisk PeterL.Bernstein 1996 Atrisk:Naturalhazards,people'svulnerabilityanddisasters PiersBlaikie,TerryCannon,IanDavis,andBenWisner 1994 BuildingSaferCommunities.RiskGovernance,SpatialPlanningandResponsestoNaturalHazards UrbanoFraPaleo 2009 DangerousEarth:Anintroductiontogeologichazards BarbaraW.Murck,BrianJ.Skinner,StephenC.Porter 1998 DisastersandDemocracy RutherfordH.Platt 1999 EarthShock:Hurricanes,volcanoes,earthquakes,tornadoesandotherforcesofnature W.AndrewRobinson 1993 HumanSystemResponsetoDisaster:AnInventoryofSociologicalFindings ThomasE.Drabek 1986 JudgmentUnderUncertainty:heuristicsandbiases DanielKahneman,PaulSlovic,andAmosTversky 1982 MappingVulnerability:disasters,development,andpeople GregBankoff,GeorgFrerks,andDorotheaHilhorst 2004 ManandSocietyinCalamity:TheEffectsofWar,Revolution,Famine,PestilenceuponHumanMind,Behavior,SocialOrganizationandCulturalLife PitirimSorokin 1942 MitigationofHazardousCometsandAsteroids MichaelJ.S.Belton,ThomasH.Morgan,NalinH.Samarasinha,DonaldK.Yeomans 2005 NaturalDisasterHotspots:aglobalriskanalysis MaxxDilley 2005 NaturalHazardMitigation:Recastingdisasterpolicyandplanning DavidGodschalk,TimothyBeatley,PhilipBerke,DavidBrower,andEdwardJ.Kaiser 1999 NaturalHazards:Earth’sprocessesashazards,disasters,andcatastrophes EdwardA.Keller,andRobertH.Blodgett 2006 NormalAccidents.Livingwithhigh-risktechnologies CharlesPerrow 1984 PayingthePrice:ThestatusandroleofinsuranceagainstnaturaldisastersintheUnitedStates HowardKunreuther,andRichardJ.Roth 1998 PlanningforEarthquakes:Risks,politics,andpolicy PhilipR.Berke,andTimothyBeatley 1992 PracticalProjectRiskManagement:TheATOMMethodology DavidHillsonandPeterSimon 2012 ReductionandPredictabilityofNaturalDisasters JohnB.Rundle,WilliamKlein,DonL.Turcotte 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