A Leader's Framework for Decision Making - Harvard ...

Reprint: R0711C Many executives are surprised when previously successful leadership ... about how to lead and make appropriate decisions in each of them. Youhave1freearticlesleftthismonth. Youarereadingyourlastfreearticleforthismonth. Subscribeforunlimitedaccess. Createanaccounttoread2more. Decisionmakingandproblemsolving ALeader’sFrameworkforDecisionMaking Wiseexecutivestailortheirapproachtofitthecomplexityofthecircumstancestheyface. by DavidJ.Snowden and MaryE.Boone by DavidJ.Snowden and MaryE.Boone FromtheMagazine(November2007) Tweet Post Share Save GetPDF BuyCopies Print Summary.    Reprint:R0711C Manyexecutivesaresurprisedwhenpreviouslysuccessfulleadershipapproachesfailinnewsituations,butdifferentcontextscallfordifferentkindsofresponses.Beforeaddressingasituation,leadersneedtorecognizewhichcontextgovernsit—andtailortheiractionsaccordingly. SnowdenandBoonehaveformedanewperspectiveonleadershipanddecisionmakingthat’sbasedoncomplexityscience.TheresultistheCynefinframework,whichhelpsexecutivessortissuesintofivecontexts: Simplecontextsarecharacterizedbystabilityandcause-and-effectrelationshipsthatarecleartoeveryone.Often,therightanswerisself-evident.Inthisrealmof“knownknowns,”leadersmustfirstassessthefactsofasituation—thatis,“sense”it—thencategorizeandrespondtoit. Complicatedcontextsmaycontainmultiplerightanswers,andthoughthereisaclearrelationshipbetweencauseandeffect,noteveryonecanseeit.Thisistherealmof“knownunknowns.”Here,leadersmustsense,analyze,andrespond. Inacomplexcontext,rightanswerscan’tbeferretedoutatall;rather,instructivepatternsemergeiftheleaderconductsexperimentsthatcansafelyfail.Thisistherealmof“unknownunknowns,”wheremuchofcontemporarybusinessoperates.Leadersinthiscontextneedtoprobefirst,thensense,andthenrespond. Inachaoticcontext,searchingforrightanswersispointless.Therelationshipsbetweencauseandeffectareimpossibletodeterminebecausetheyshiftconstantlyandnomanageablepatternsexist.Thisistherealmofunknowables(theeventsofSeptember11,2001,fallintothiscategory).Inthisdomain,aleadermustfirstacttoestablishorder,sensewherestabilityispresent,andthenworktotransformthesituationfromchaostocomplexity. Thefifthcontext,disorder,applieswhenitisunclearwhichoftheotherfourcontextsispredominant.Thewayoutistobreakthesituationintoitsconstituentpartsandassigneachtooneoftheotherfourrealms.Leaderscanthenmakedecisionsandinterveneincontextuallyappropriateways. Tweet Post Share Save GetPDF BuyCopies Print Leerenespañol Leremportuguês InJanuary1993,agunmanmurderedsevenpeopleinafast-foodrestaurantinPalatine,asuburbofChicago.Inhisdualrolesasanadministrativeexecutiveandspokespersonforthepolicedepartment,DeputyChiefWalterGasiorsuddenlyhadtocopewithseveraldifferentsituationsatonce.Hehadtodealwiththegrievingfamiliesandafrightenedcommunity,helpdirecttheoperationsofanextremelybusypolicedepartment,andtakequestionsfromthemedia,whichinundatedthetownwithreportersandfilmcrews.“Therewouldliterallybefourpeoplecomingatmewithlogisticsandmediaissuesallatonce,”herecalls.“Andinthemidstofallthis,westillhadadepartmentthathadtokeeprunningonaroutinebasis.” ThoughGasiorwasultimatelysuccessfulinjugglingmultipledemands,notallleadersachievethedesiredresultswhentheyfacesituationsthatrequireavarietyofdecisionsandresponses.Alltoooften,managersrelyoncommonleadershipapproachesthatworkwellinonesetofcircumstancesbutfallshortinothers.Whydotheseapproachesfailevenwhenlogicindicatestheyshouldprevail?Theanswerliesinafundamentalassumptionoforganizationaltheoryandpractice:thatacertainlevelofpredictabilityandorderexistsintheworld.Thisassumption,groundedintheNewtoniansciencethatunderliesscientificmanagement,encouragessimplificationsthatareusefulinorderedcircumstances.Circumstanceschange,however,andastheybecomemorecomplex,thesimplificationscanfail.Goodleadershipisnotaone-size-fits-allproposition. Webelievethetimehascometobroadenthetraditionalapproachtoleadershipanddecisionmakingandformanewperspectivebasedoncomplexityscience.(Formoreonthis,seethesidebar“UnderstandingComplexity.”)Overthepasttenyears,wehaveappliedtheprinciplesofthatsciencetogovernmentsandabroadrangeofindustries.Workingwithothercontributors,wedevelopedtheCynefinframework,whichallowsexecutivestoseethingsfromnewviewpoints,assimilatecomplexconcepts,andaddressreal-worldproblemsandopportunities.(Cynefin,pronouncedku-nev-in,isaWelshwordthatsignifiesthemultiplefactorsinourenvironmentandourexperiencethatinfluenceusinwayswecanneverunderstand.)Usingthisapproach,leaderslearntodefinetheframeworkwithexamplesfromtheirownorganization’shistoryandscenariosofitspossiblefuture.Thisenhancescommunicationandhelpsexecutivesrapidlyunderstandthecontextinwhichtheyareoperating. UnderstandingComplexity Complexityismoreawayofthinkingabouttheworldthananewwayofworkingwithmathematicalmodels.Overacenturyago,FrederickWinslowTaylor,thefatherofscientificmanagement,revolutionizedleadership.Today,advancesincomplexityscience,combinedwithknowledgefromthecognitivesciences,aretransformingthefieldonceagain.Complexityispoisedtohelpcurrentandfutureleadersmakesenseofadvancedtechnology,globalization,intricatemarkets,culturalchange,andmuchmore.Inshort,thescienceofcomplexitycanhelpallofusaddressthechallengesandopportunitieswefaceinanewepochofhumanhistory. Acomplexsystemhasthefollowingcharacteristics: Itinvolveslargenumbersofinteractingelements. Theinteractionsarenonlinear,andminorchangescanproducedisproportionatelymajorconsequences. Thesystemisdynamic,thewholeisgreaterthanthesumofitsparts,andsolutionscan’tbeimposed;rather,theyarisefromthecircumstances.Thisisfrequentlyreferredtoas emergence . Thesystemhasahistory,andthepastisintegratedwiththepresent;theelementsevolvewithoneanotherandwiththeenvironment;andevolutionisirreversible. Thoughacomplexsystemmay,inretrospect,appeartobeorderedandpredictable,hindsightdoesnotleadtoforesightbecausetheexternalconditionsandsystemsconstantlychange. Unlikeinorderedsystems(wherethesystemconstrainstheagents),orchaoticsystems(wheretherearenoconstraints),inacomplexsystemtheagentsandthesystemconstrainoneanother,especiallyovertime.Thismeansthatwecannotforecastorpredictwhatwillhappen. Oneoftheearlytheoriesofcomplexityisthatcomplexphenomenaarisefromsimplerules.Considertherulesfortheflockingbehaviorofbirds:Flytothecenteroftheflock,matchspeed,andavoidcollision.Thissimple-ruletheorywasappliedtoindustrialmodelingandproductionearlyon,anditpromisedmuch;butitdidnotdeliverinisolation.Morerecently,somethinkersandpractitionershavestartedtoarguethathumancomplexsystemsareverydifferentfromthoseinnatureandcannotbemodeledinthesamewaysbecauseofhumanunpredictabilityandintellect.Considerthefollowingwaysinwhichhumansaredistinctfromotheranimals: Theyhavemultipleidentitiesandcanfluidlyswitchbetweenthemwithoutconsciousthought.(Forexample,apersoncanbearespectedmemberofthecommunityaswellasaterrorist.) Theymakedecisionsbasedonpastpatternsofsuccessandfailure,ratherthanonlogical,definablerules. Theycan,incertaincircumstances,purposefullychangethesystemsinwhichtheyoperatetoequilibriumstates(thinkofaSixSigmaproject)inordertocreatepredictableoutcomes. Leaderswhowanttoapplytheprinciplesofcomplexitysciencetotheirorganizationswillneedtothinkandactdifferentlythantheyhaveinthepast.Thismaynotbeeasy,butitisessentialincomplexcontexts. TheU.S.DefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencyhasappliedtheframeworktocounterterrorism,anditiscurrentlyakeycomponentofSingapore’sRiskAssessmentandHorizonScanningprogram.Overtime,theframeworkhasevolvedthroughhundredsofapplications,fromhelpingapharmaceuticalcompanydevelopanewproductstrategytoassistingaCanadianprovincialgovernmentinitseffortstoengageemployeesinpolicymaking. Theframeworksortstheissuesfacingleadersintofivecontextsdefinedbythenatureoftherelationshipbetweencauseandeffect.Fourofthese—simple,complicated,complex,andchaotic—requireleaderstodiagnosesituationsandtoactincontextuallyappropriateways.Thefifth—disorder—applieswhenitisunclearwhichoftheotherfourcontextsispredominant. UsingtheCynefinframeworkcanhelpexecutivessensewhichcontexttheyareinsothattheycannotonlymakebetterdecisionsbutalsoavoidtheproblemsthatarisewhentheirpreferredmanagementstylecausesthemtomakemistakes.Inthisarticle,wefocusonthefirstfourcontexts,offeringexamplesandsuggestionsabouthowtoleadandmakeappropriatedecisionsineachofthem.Sincethecomplexdomainismuchmoreprevalentinthebusinessworldthanmostleadersrealize—andrequiresdifferent,oftencounterintuitive,responses—weconcentrateparticularlyonthatcontext.LeaderswhounderstandthattheworldisoftenirrationalandunpredictablewillfindtheCynefinframeworkparticularlyuseful. SimpleContexts:TheDomainofBestPractice Simplecontextsarecharacterizedbystabilityandclearcause-and-effectrelationshipsthatareeasilydiscerniblebyeveryone.Often,therightanswerisself-evidentandundisputed.Inthisrealmof“knownknowns,”decisionsareunquestionedbecauseallpartiesshareanunderstanding.Areasthatarelittlesubjecttochange,suchasproblemswithorderprocessingandfulfillment,usuallybelonghere. Simplecontexts,properlyassessed,requirestraightforwardmanagementandmonitoring.Here,leaderssense,categorize,andrespond.Thatis,theyassessthefactsofthesituation,categorizethem,andthenbasetheirresponseonestablishedpractice.Heavilyprocess-orientedsituations,suchasloanpaymentprocessing,areoftensimplecontexts.Ifsomethinggoesawry,anemployeecanusuallyidentifytheproblem(when,say,aborrowerpayslessthanisrequired),categorizeit(reviewtheloandocumentstoseehowpartialpaymentsmustbeprocessed),andrespondappropriately(eithernotacceptthepaymentorapplythefundsaccordingtothetermsofthenote).Sincebothmanagersandemployeeshaveaccesstotheinformationnecessaryfordealingwiththesituationinthisdomain,acommand-and-controlstyleforsettingparametersworksbest.Directivesarestraightforward,decisionscanbeeasilydelegated,andfunctionsareautomated.Adheringtobestpracticesorprocessreengineeringmakessense.Exhaustivecommunicationamongmanagersandemployeesisnotusuallyrequiredbecausedisagreementaboutwhatneedstobedoneisrare. Nevertheless,problemscanariseinsimplecontexts.First,issuesmaybeincorrectlyclassifiedwithinthisdomainbecausetheyhavebeenoversimplified.Leaderswhoconstantlyaskforcondensedinformation,regardlessofthecomplexityofthesituation,particularlyrunthisrisk. Second,leadersaresusceptibletoentrainedthinking,aconditionedresponsethatoccurswhenpeopleareblindedtonewwaysofthinkingbytheperspectivestheyacquiredthroughpastexperience,training,andsuccess. Third,whenthingsappeartobegoingsmoothly,leadersoftenbecomecomplacent.Ifthecontextchangesatthatpoint,aleaderislikelytomisswhatishappeningandreacttoolate.Intheexhibit“TheCynefinFramework,”thesimpledomainliesadjacenttothechaotic—andforgoodreason.Themostfrequentcollapsesintochaosoccurbecausesuccesshasbredcomplacency.Thisshiftcanbringaboutcatastrophicfailure—thinkofthemanypreviouslydominanttechnologiesthatweresuddenlydisruptedbymoredynamicalternatives. TheCynefinFramework TheCynefinframeworkhelpsleadersdeterminetheprevailingoperativecontextsothattheycanmakeappropriatechoices.Eachdomainrequiresdifferentactions.Simpleandcomplicatedcontextsassumeanordereduniverse,wherecause-and-effectrelationshipsareperceptible,andrightanswerscanbedeterminedbasedonthefacts.Complexandchaoticcontextsareunordered—thereisnoimmediatelyapparentrelationshipbetweencauseandeffect,andthewayforwardisdeterminedbasedonemergingpatterns.Theorderedworldistheworldoffact-basedmanagement;theunorderedworldrepresentspattern-basedmanagement. Theverynatureofthefifthcontext—disorder—makesitparticularlydifficulttorecognizewhenoneisinit.Here,multipleperspectivesjostleforprominence,factionalleadersarguewithoneanother,andcacophonyrules.Thewayoutofthisrealmistobreakdownthesituationintoconstituentpartsandassigneachtooneoftheotherfourrealms.Leaderscanthenmakedecisionsandinterveneincontextuallyappropriateways. Leadersneedtoavoidmicromanagingandstayconnectedtowhatishappeninginordertospotachangeincontext.Byandlarge,lineworkersinasimplesituationaremorethancapableofindependentlyhandlinganyissuesthatmayarise.Indeed,thosewithyearsofexperiencealsohavedeepinsightintohowtheworkshouldbedone.Leadersshouldcreateacommunicationchannel—ananonymousone,ifnecessary—thatallowsdissenterstoprovideearlywarningsaboutcomplacency. Finally,it’simportanttorememberthatbestpracticeis,bydefinition,pastpractice.Usingbestpracticesiscommon,andoftenappropriate,insimplecontexts.Difficultiesarise,however,ifstaffmembersarediscouragedfrombuckingtheprocessevenwhenit’snotworkinganymore.Sincehindsightnolongerleadstoforesightafterashiftincontext,acorrespondingchangeinmanagementstylemaybecalledfor. ComplicatedContexts:TheDomainofExperts Complicatedcontexts,unlikesimpleones,maycontainmultiplerightanswers,andthoughthereisaclearrelationshipbetweencauseandeffect,noteveryonecanseeit.Thisistherealmof“knownunknowns.”Whileleadersinasimplecontextmustsense,categorize,andrespondtoasituation,thoseinacomplicatedcontextmustsense,analyze,andrespond.Thisapproachisnoteasyandoftenrequiresexpertise:Amotoristmayknowthatsomethingiswrongwithhiscarbecausetheengineisknocking,buthehastotakeittoamechanictodiagnosetheproblem. Becausethecomplicatedcontextcallsforinvestigatingseveraloptions—manyofwhichmaybeexcellent—goodpractice,asopposedtobestpractice,ismoreappropriate.Forexample,thecustomaryapproachtoengineeringanewcellphonemightemphasizefeatureAoverfeatureB,butanalternativeplan—emphasizingfeatureC—mightbeequallyvaluable. Anotherexampleisthesearchforoilormineraldeposits.Theeffortusuallyrequiresateamofexperts,morethanoneplacewillpotentiallyproduceresults,andthelocationoftherightspotsfordrillingormininginvolvescomplicatedanalysisandunderstandingofconsequencesatmultiplelevels. Entrainedthinkingisadangerincomplicatedcontexts,too,butitistheexperts(ratherthantheleaders)whoarepronetoit,andtheytendtodominatethedomain.Whenthisproblemoccurs,innovativesuggestionsbynonexpertsmaybeoverlookedordismissed,resultinginlostopportunities.Theexpertshave,afterall,investedinbuildingtheirknowledge,andtheyareunlikelytotoleratecontroversialideas.Ifthecontexthasshifted,however,theleadermayneedaccesstothosemaverickconcepts.Togetaroundthisissue,aleadermustlistentotheexpertswhilesimultaneouslywelcomingnovelthoughtsandsolutionsfromothers.Executivesatoneshoemanufacturerdidthisbyopeningupthebrainstormingprocessfornewshoestylestotheentirecompany.Asaresult,asecurityguardsubmittedadesignforashoethatbecameoneoftheirbestsellers. Anotherpotentialobstacleis“analysisparalysis,”whereagroupofexpertshitsastalemate,unabletoagreeonanyanswersbecauseofeachindividual’sentrainedthinking—orego. Workinginunfamiliarenvironmentscanhelpleadersandexpertsapproachdecisionmakingmorecreatively.Forinstance,weputretailmarketingprofessionalsinseveralmilitaryresearchenvironmentsfortwoweeks.Thesettingswereunfamiliarandchallenging,buttheysharedaprimarysimilaritywiththeretailenvironment:Inbothcases,themarketershadtoworkwithlargevolumesofdatafromwhichitwascriticaltoidentifysmalltrendsorweaksignals.Theydiscoveredthattherewaslittledifferencebetween,say,handlingoutgoingdisaffectedcustomersandanticipatingincomingballisticmissiles.Theexercisehelpedthemarketinggrouplearnhowtodetectapotentiallossofloyaltyandtakeactionbeforeavaluedcustomerswitchedtoacompetitor.Byimprovingtheirstrategy,themarketerswereabletoretainfarmorehigh-volumebusiness. Games,too,canencouragenovelthinking.Wecreatedagameplayedonafictionalplanetthatwasbasedonthecultureofarealclientorganization.Whentheexecutives“landed”onthealienplanet,theywereaskedtoaddressproblemsandopportunitiesfacingtheinhabitants.Theissuestheyencounteredweredisguisedbutdesignedtomirrorrealsituations,manyofwhichwerecontroversialorsensitive.Becausetheenvironmentseemedsoforeignandremote,however,theplayersfounditmucheasiertocomeupwithfreshideasthantheyotherwisemighthavedone.Playingametaphoricalgameincreasesmanagers’willingnesstoexperiment,allowsthemtoresolveissuesorproblemsmoreeasilyandcreatively,andbroadenstherangeofoptionsintheirdecision-makingprocesses.Thegoalofsuchgamesistogetasmanyperspectivesaspossibletopromoteunfetteredanalysis. Reachingdecisionsinthecomplicateddomaincanoftentakealotoftime,andthereisalwaysatrade-offbetweenfindingtherightanswerandsimplymakingadecision.Whentherightansweriselusive,however,andyoumustbaseyourdecisiononincompletedata,yoursituationisprobablycomplexratherthancomplicated. ComplexContexts:TheDomainofEmergence Inacomplicatedcontext,atleastonerightanswerexists.Inacomplexcontext,however,rightanswerscan’tbeferretedout.It’slikethedifferencebetween,say,aFerrariandtheBrazilianrainforest.Ferrarisarecomplicatedmachines,butanexpertmechaniccantakeoneapartandreassembleitwithoutchangingathing.Thecarisstatic,andthewholeisthesumofitsparts.Therainforest,ontheotherhand,isinconstantflux—aspeciesbecomesextinct,weatherpatternschange,anagriculturalprojectreroutesawatersource—andthewholeisfarmorethanthesumofitsparts.Thisistherealmof“unknownunknowns,”anditisthedomaintowhichmuchofcontemporarybusinesshasshifted. Mostsituationsanddecisionsinorganizationsarecomplexbecausesomemajorchange—abadquarter,ashiftinmanagement,amergeroracquisition—introducesunpredictabilityandflux.Inthisdomain,wecanunderstandwhythingshappenonlyinretrospect.Instructivepatterns,however,canemergeiftheleaderconductsexperimentsthataresafetofail.Thatiswhy,insteadofattemptingtoimposeacourseofaction,leadersmustpatientlyallowthepathforwardtorevealitself.Theyneedtoprobefirst,thensense,andthenrespond. ThereisasceneinthefilmApollo13whentheastronautsencounteracrisis(“Houston,wehaveaproblem”)thatmovesthesituationintoacomplexdomain.Agroupofexpertsisputinaroomwithamishmashofmaterials—bitsofplasticandoddsandendsthatmirrortheresourcesavailabletotheastronautsinflight.Leaderstelltheteam:Thisiswhatyouhave;findasolutionortheastronautswilldie.Noneofthoseexpertsknewaprioriwhatwouldwork.Instead,theyhadtoletasolutionemergefromthematerialsathand.Andtheysucceeded.(Conditionsofscarcityoftenproducemorecreativeresultsthanconditionsofabundance.) AnotherexamplecomesfromYouTube.Thefounderscouldnotpossiblyhavepredictedalltheapplicationsforstreamingvideotechnologythatnowexist.OncepeoplestartedusingYouTubecreatively,however,thecompanycouldsupportandaugmenttheemergingpatternsofuse.YouTubehasbecomeapopularplatformforexpressingpoliticalviews,forexample.Thecompanybuiltonthispatternbysponsoringadebateforpresidentialhopefulswithvideofeedsfromthesite. Asintheothercontexts,leadersfaceseveralchallengesinthecomplexdomain.Ofprimaryconcernisthetemptationtofallbackintotraditionalcommand-and-controlmanagementstyles—todemandfail-safebusinessplanswithdefinedoutcomes.Leaderswhodon’trecognizethatacomplexdomainrequiresamoreexperimentalmodeofmanagementmaybecomeimpatientwhentheydon’tseemtobeachievingtheresultstheywereaimingfor.Theymayalsofinditdifficulttotoleratefailure,whichisanessentialaspectofexperimentalunderstanding.Iftheytrytoovercontroltheorganization,theywillpreempttheopportunityforinformativepatternstoemerge.Leaderswhotrytoimposeorderinacomplexcontextwillfail,butthosewhosetthestage,stepbackabit,allowpatternstoemerge,anddeterminewhichonesaredesirablewillsucceed.(Seethesidebar“ToolsforManaginginaComplexContext.”)Theywilldiscernmanyopportunitiesforinnovation,creativity,andnewbusinessmodels. ToolsforManaginginaComplexContext Giventheambiguitiesofthecomplexdomain,howcanleadersleadeffectively? Openupthediscussion. Complexcontextsrequiremoreinteractivecommunicationthananyoftheotherdomains.Largegroupmethods(LGMs),forinstance,areefficientapproachestoinitiatingdemocratic,interactive,multidirectionaldiscussionsessions.Here,peoplegenerateinnovativeideasthathelpleaderswithdevelopmentandexecutionofcomplexdecisionsandstrategies.Forexample,“positivedeviance”isatypeofLGMthatallowspeopletodiscusssolutionsthatarealreadyworkingwithintheorganizationitself,ratherthanlookingtooutsidebestpracticesforcluesabouthowtoproceed.ThePlexusInstituteusedthisapproachtoaddressthecomplexproblemofhospital-acquiredinfections,resultinginbehaviorchangethatloweredtheincidencebyasmuchas50%. Setbarriers. Barrierslimitordelineatebehavior.Oncethebarriersareset,thesystemcanself-regulatewithinthoseboundaries.ThefoundersofeBay,forexample,createdbarriersbyestablishingasimplesetofrules.Amongthemarepayontime,delivermerchandisequickly,andprovidefulldisclosureontheconditionofthemerchandise.Participantspolicethemselvesbyratingoneanotheronthequalityoftheirbehavior. Stimulateattractors. Attractorsarephenomenathatarisewhensmallstimuliandprobes(whetherfromleadersorothers)resonatewithpeople.Asattractorsgainmomentum,theyprovidestructureandcoherence.EBayagainprovidesanillustrativeexample.In1995,founderPierreOmidyarlaunchedanofferingcalledAuctionWebonhispersonalwebsite.Hisprobe,thefirstitemforsale,quicklymorphedintoeBay,aremarkableattractorforpeoplewhowanttobuyandsellthings.Today,sellersoneBaycontinuetoprovideexperimentalprobesthatcreateattractorsofvarioustypes.Onesuchprobe,sellingacaronthesite,resonatedwithbuyers,andsoonautomobilesalesbecameapopularattractor. Encouragedissentanddiversity. Dissentandformaldebatearevaluablecommunicationassetsincomplexcontextsbecausetheyencouragetheemergenceofwell-forgedpatternsandideas.A“ritualdissent”approach,forinstance,putsparallelteamstoworkonthesameprobleminalargegroupmeetingenvironment.Eachteamappointsaspokespersonwhomovesfromthatteam’stabletoanotherteam’stable.Thespokespersonpresentsthefirstgroup’sconclusionswhilethesecondgrouplistensinsilence.Thespokespersonthenturnsaroundtofaceawayfromthesecondteam,whichripsintothepresentation,noholdsbarred,whilethespokespersonlistensquietly.Eachteam’sspokespersonvisitsothertablesinturn;bytheendofthesession,alltheideashavebeenwelldissectedandhoned.Takingturnslisteninginsilencehelpseveryoneunderstandthevalueoflisteningcarefully,speakingopenly,andnottakingcriticismpersonally. Managestartingconditionsandmonitorforemergence. Becauseoutcomesareunpredictableinacomplexcontext,leadersneedtofocusoncreatinganenvironmentfromwhichgoodthingscanemerge,ratherthantryingtobringaboutpredeterminedresultsandpossiblymissingopportunitiesthatariseunexpectedly.Manyyearsago,forinstance,3Minstitutedaruleallowingitsresearcherstospend15%oftheirtimeonanyprojectthatinterestedthem.Oneresultwasarunawaysuccess:thePost-itNote. ChaoticContexts:TheDomainofRapidResponse Inachaoticcontext,searchingforrightanswerswouldbepointless:Therelationshipsbetweencauseandeffectareimpossibletodeterminebecausetheyshiftconstantlyandnomanageablepatternsexist—onlyturbulence.Thisistherealmofunknowables.TheeventsofSeptember11,2001,fallintothiscategory. Inthechaoticdomain,aleader’simmediatejobisnottodiscoverpatternsbuttostanchthebleeding.Aleadermustfirstacttoestablishorder,thensensewherestabilityispresentandfromwhereitisabsent,andthenrespondbyworkingtotransformthesituationfromchaostocomplexity,wheretheidentificationofemergingpatternscanbothhelppreventfuturecrisesanddiscernnewopportunities.Communicationofthemostdirecttop-downorbroadcastkindisimperative;there’ssimplynotimetoaskforinput. Unfortunately,mostleadership“recipes”arisefromexamplesofgoodcrisismanagement.Thisisamistake,andnotonlybecausechaoticsituationsaremercifullyrare.ThoughtheeventsofSeptember11werenotimmediatelycomprehensible,thecrisisdemandeddecisiveaction.NewYork’smayoratthetime,RudyGiuliani,demonstratedexceptionaleffectivenessunderchaoticconditionsbyissuingdirectivesandtakingactiontoreestablishorder.However,inhisroleasmayor—certainlyoneofthemostcomplexjobsintheworld—hewaswidelycriticizedforthesametop-downleadershipstylethatprovedsoenormouslyeffectiveduringthecatastrophe.Hewasalsocriticizedafterwardforsuggestingthatelectionsbepostponedsohecouldmaintainorderandstability.Indeed,aspecificdangerforleadersfollowingacrisisisthatsomeofthembecomelesssuccessfulwhenthecontextshiftsbecausetheyarenotabletoswitchstylestomatchit. Moreover,leaderswhoarehighlysuccessfulinchaoticcontextscandevelopanoverinflatedself-image,becominglegendsintheirownminds.Whentheygeneratecultlikeadoration,leadingactuallybecomesharderforthembecauseacircleofadmiringsupporterscutsthemofffromaccurateinformation. Yetthechaoticdomainisnearlyalwaysthebestplaceforleaderstoimpelinnovation.Peoplearemoreopentonoveltyanddirectiveleadershipinthesesituationsthantheywouldbeinothercontexts.Oneexcellenttechniqueistomanagechaosandinnovationinparallel:Theminuteyouencounteracrisis,appointareliablemanagerorcrisismanagementteamtoresolvetheissue.Atthesametime,pickoutaseparateteamandfocusitsmembersontheopportunitiesfordoingthingsdifferently.Ifyouwaituntilthecrisisisover,thechancewillbegone. LeadershipAcrossContexts Goodleadershiprequiresopennesstochangeonanindividuallevel.Trulyadeptleaderswillknownotonlyhowtoidentifythecontextthey’reworkinginatanygiventimebutalsohowtochangetheirbehaviorandtheirdecisionstomatchthatcontext.Theyalsopreparetheirorganizationtounderstandthedifferentcontextsandtheconditionsfortransitionbetweenthem.Manyleadersleadeffectively—thoughusuallyinonlyoneortwodomains(notinallofthem)andfew,ifany,preparetheirorganizationsfordiversecontexts. DecisionsinMultipleContexts:ALeader’sGuide Effectiveleaderslearntoshifttheirdecision-makingstylestomatchchangingbusinessenvironments.Simple,complicated,complex,andchaoticcontextseachcallfordifferentmanagerialresponses.Bycorrectlyidentifyingthegoverningcontext,stayingawareofdangersignals,andavoidinginappropriatereactions,managerscanleadeffectivelyinavarietyofsituations. DuringthePalatinemurdersof1993,DeputyChiefGasiorfacedfourcontextsatonce.Hehadtotakeimmediateactionviathemediatostemthetideofinitialpanicbykeepingthecommunityinformed(chaotic);hehadtohelpkeepthedepartmentrunningroutinelyandaccordingtoestablishedprocedure(simple);hehadtocallinexperts(complicated);andhehadtocontinuetocalmthecommunityinthedaysandweeksfollowingthecrime(complex).Thatlastsituationprovedthemostchallenging.Parentswereafraidtolettheirchildrengotoschool,andemployeeswereconcernedaboutsafetyintheirworkplaces.HadGasiormisreadthecontextassimple,hemightjusthavesaid,“Carryon,”whichwouldhavedonenothingtoreassurethecommunity.Hadhemisreaditascomplicated,hemighthavecalledinexpertstosayitwassafe—riskingalossofcredibilityandtrust.Instead,Gasiorsetupaforumforbusinessowners,highschoolstudents,teachers,andparentstoshareconcernsandhearthefacts.Itwastherightapproachforacomplexcontext:Heallowedsolutionstoemergefromthecommunityitselfratherthantryingtoimposethem.••• Businessschoolsandorganizationsequipleaderstooperateinordereddomains(simpleandcomplicated),butmostleadersusuallymustrelyontheirnaturalcapabilitieswhenoperatinginunorderedcontexts(complexandchaotic).Inthefaceofgreatercomplexitytoday,however,intuition,intellect,andcharismaarenolongerenough.Leadersneedtoolsandapproachestoguidetheirfirmsthroughlessfamiliarwaters. Inthecomplexenvironmentofthecurrentbusinessworld,leadersoftenwillbecalledupontoactagainsttheirinstincts.Theywillneedtoknowwhentosharepowerandwhentowielditalone,whentolooktothewisdomofthegroupandwhentotaketheirowncounsel.Adeepunderstandingofcontext,theabilitytoembracecomplexityandparadox,andawillingnesstoflexiblychangeleadershipstylewillberequiredforleaderswhowanttomakethingshappeninatimeofincreasinguncertainty. AversionofthisarticleappearedintheNovember2007issueofHarvardBusinessReview. ReadmoreonDecisionmakingandproblemsolving orrelatedtopic Leadershipqualities DS DavidJ.Snowden([email protected])isthefounderandchiefscientificofficerofCognitiveEdge,aninternationalresearchnetwork.HeisbasedprimarilyinLockeridge,England. MB MaryE.Boone([email protected])isthepresidentofBooneAssociates,aconsultingfirminEssex,Connecticut,andtheauthorofnumerousbooksandarticles,includingManagingInteractively(McGraw-Hill,2001). 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