Bayesian Probability - Predicting Likelihood of Future Events

Bayesian probability is the process of using probability to try to predict the likelihood of certain events occurring in the future. Skiptomaincontent   Menu Search Home Overview Research Foundations Academic Self-Help WritePaper Quiz ForKids YourCode Login SignUp Menu Search Login SignUp Username:* Password:* SignupForgotpassword Leavethisfieldblank: Searchover500articlesonpsychology,science,andexperiments. Searchform Search: Leavethisfieldblank: Home Overview ResearchMethods Experiments Design Statistics FoundationsReasoning Philosophy Ethics History AcademicPsychology Biology Physics Medicine Anthropology Self-HelpSelf-Esteem Worry SocialAnxiety Sleep Anxiety WritePaper Quiz ForKids YourCode Home>Research>Statistics>BayesianProbability BayesianProbabilityPredictingLikelihoodofFutureEvents MartynShuttleworth65.2Kreads PredictingLikelihoodofFutureEvents Bayesianprobabilityistheprocessofusingprobabilitytotrytopredictthelikelihoodofcertaineventsoccurringinthefuture. Thisarticleisapartoftheguide: Selectfromoneoftheothercoursesavailable: ScientificMethodResearchDesignResearchBasicsExperimentalResearchSamplingValidityandReliabilityWriteaPaperBiologicalPsychologyChildDevelopmentStress&CopingMotivationandEmotionMemory&LearningPersonalitySocialPsychologyExperimentsScienceProjectsforKidsSurveyGuidePhilosophyofScienceReasoningEthicsinResearchAncientHistoryRenaissance&EnlightenmentMedicalHistoryPhysicsExperimentsBiologyExperimentsZoologyStatisticsBeginnersGuideStatisticalConclusionStatisticalTestsDistributioninStatistics Discover24morearticlesonthistopic Don'tmisstheserelatedarticles: Significance2SampleSizeExperimentalProbabilityCronbach’sAlphaSystematicError BrowseFullOutline 1InferentialStatistics 2ExperimentalProbability2.1BayesianProbability 3ConfidenceInterval3.1SignificanceTest3.1.1Significance2 3.2SignificantResults 3.3SampleSize 3.4MarginofError 3.5ExperimentalError3.5.1RandomError 3.5.2SystematicError 3.5.3DataDredging 3.5.4AdHocAnalysis 3.5.5RegressionTowardtheMean 4StatisticalPowerAnalysis4.1P-Value 4.2EffectSize 5EthicsinStatistics5.1PhilosophyofStatistics 6StatisticalValidity6.1StatisticsandReliability6.1.1Reliability2 6.2Cronbach’sAlpha 1InferentialStatistics2ExperimentalProbability3ConfidenceInterval4StatisticalPowerAnalysis5EthicsinStatistics6StatisticalValidity Unliketraditionalprobability,whichusesafrequencytotrytoestimateprobability,Bayesianprobabilityisgenerallyexpressedasapercentage.Initsmostbasicform,itisthemeasureofconfidence,orbelief,thatapersonholdsinaproposition.UsingBayesianprobabilityallowsaresearchertojudgetheamountofconfidencethattheyhaveinaparticularresult.Frequencyprobability,viathetraditionalnullhypothesisrestrictstheresearchertoyesandnoanswers.Bayesianmethodsarebecominganothertoolforassessingtheviabilityofaresearchhypothesis.TouseBayesianprobability,aresearcherstartswithasetofinitialbeliefs,andtriestoadjustthem,usuallythroughexperimentationandresearch.Theoriginalsetofbeliefsisthenalteredtoaccommodatethenewinformation.Thisprocesssacrificesalittleobjectivityforflexibility,helpingresearcherstocircumventtheneedforatortuousresearchdesign.Adrugcompanydoesnotwanttoknowwhetheradrugworksornot,butassessifitworksbetterthanexistingtreatments,givingabaselineforcomparison.Drugscompaniesoften‘tinker’withthemolecularstructureofdrugs,anddonotwanttodesignanewprogrameachtime.TheresearcherswillconstantlyreassesstheirBayesianprobability,ordegreeofbelief,allowingthemtoconcentrateuponpromisingdrugsandcuttingshortfailingtreatments.Thisreducestherisktopatients,thetimescaleandtheexpense.BayesianProbabilityinUseOnesimpleexampleofBayesianprobabilityinactionisrollingadie:Traditionalfrequencytheorydictatesthat,ifyouthrowthedicesixtimes,youshouldrollasixonce.Ofcourse,theremaybevariations,butitwillaverageoutovertime.ThisiswhereBayesianprobabilitydiffers.ImagineaBayesianspecialistobservingagameofdiceinacasino.Itismorethanlikelythathewillbeginwiththesame1in6chance,or16.67%.Asthenightwearson,henoticesthatthediceisturningupsixesmorethanexpected,andadjustshisbelief.Hebeginstosuspectthatthediceisloaded,soleaves,keepinghismoneyinhispocket.Stickingwiththegamblingtheme,consideraprofessionalpokerplayertakingpartinagame.Standardprobabilitywouldstate,assumingthatalltheplayersareofequalabilityandhaveagood‘pokerface,’thatthegamerevolvesaroundthefrequenciesandchancesofcertaincardsappearing.However,ourplayerhasresearchedandstudiedthestylesofhisoppositionovertheyears.Sheknowsthatoneislikelytobluffalot;anotherplayeriscautious,andhewillnotplacelargebetsunlesshehasagoodchanceofastronghand.Theotherispronetomakingrashbetsandgoingallin.Armedwiththisinformation,shecanuseBayesianprobabilitytoreassessthelikelihoodofherownhandbeingstrong,andhavingachanceoftakingthepot.Asimilar,althoughmorecomplexprocessisusedtopredicttheweather,baseduponpreviouseventsandoccurrences,andisrightmuchmoreoftenthannot.Weatherisachaoticsystem,andthesearenotoriouslydifficulttopredictbyfrequencyprobability.AnyregularcomputeruserregularlymakesuseofBayesianprobability.Spamfiltersone-mailaccountsmakeuseoftheBayestheorem,anddoaprettygoodjob.Whilsttheydonotintercepteverysinglespame-mail,andmaywronglyassignlegitimatemessagestothetrashfolder,theyarecertainlybetterthanhavinghundredsofjunkmessageswaitingintheinboxeverytimetheaccountisopened.Everytimetheprogrammakesanincorrectassumption,whichisflaggedbytherecipient,thenewinformationfeedsbackintothemodelandfacilitatesamoreaccurateanswerthenexttime.ThissummarizesBayesianprobabilityverywell-itisanextremelyusefultool,moreoftenrightthanwrong,butitisonlyeveraguide.Manyareasofscienceareadaptingtothisreworkingofanoldtheory,anditpromisestofitalongsidethetraditionalmethodsverywell. Checkoutourquiz-pagewithtestsabout: Psychology101ScienceFlagsandCountriesCapitalsandCountries «PreviousArticle "ExperimentalProbability"   BacktoOverview "StatisticalConclusion"     NextArticle» "ConfidenceInterval" Fullreference: MartynShuttleworth(May15,2009).BayesianProbability.RetrievedJul21,2022fromExplorable.com:https://explorable.com/bayesian-probability YouAreAllowedToCopyTheText ThetextinthisarticleislicensedundertheCreativeCommons-LicenseAttribution4.0International(CCBY4.0). Thismeansyou'refreetocopy,shareandadaptanyparts(orall)ofthetextinthearticle,aslongasyougiveappropriatecreditandprovidealink/referencetothispage. Thatisit.Youdon'tneedourpermissiontocopythearticle;justincludealink/referencebacktothispage.Youcanuseitfreely(withsomekindoflink),andwe'realsookaywithpeoplereprintinginpublicationslikebooks,blogs,newsletters,course-material,papers,wikipediaandpresentations(withclearattribution). Wanttostayuptodate?Followus! Follow@ExplorableMind Thisarticleisapartoftheguide: Selectfromoneoftheothercoursesavailable: ScientificMethodResearchDesignResearchBasicsExperimentalResearchSamplingValidityandReliabilityWriteaPaperBiologicalPsychologyChildDevelopmentStress&CopingMotivationandEmotionMemory&LearningPersonalitySocialPsychologyExperimentsScienceProjectsforKidsSurveyGuidePhilosophyofScienceReasoningEthicsinResearchAncientHistoryRenaissance&EnlightenmentMedicalHistoryPhysicsExperimentsBiologyExperimentsZoologyStatisticsBeginnersGuideStatisticalConclusionStatisticalTestsDistributioninStatistics Discover24morearticlesonthistopic Don'tmisstheserelatedarticles: Significance2SampleSizeExperimentalProbabilityCronbach’sAlphaSystematicError BrowseFullOutline 1InferentialStatistics 2ExperimentalProbability2.1BayesianProbability 3ConfidenceInterval3.1SignificanceTest3.1.1Significance2 3.2SignificantResults 3.3SampleSize 3.4MarginofError 3.5ExperimentalError3.5.1RandomError 3.5.2SystematicError 3.5.3DataDredging 3.5.4AdHocAnalysis 3.5.5RegressionTowardtheMean 4StatisticalPowerAnalysis4.1P-Value 4.2EffectSize 5EthicsinStatistics5.1PhilosophyofStatistics 6StatisticalValidity6.1StatisticsandReliability6.1.1Reliability2 6.2Cronbach’sAlpha SavethiscourseforlaterDon'thavetimeforitallnow?Noproblem,saveitasacourseandcomebacktoitlater. 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